$10 billion, no one dared to lend—SoftBank and OpenAI lower margin loan target to $6 billion

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SoftBank Group’s financing plan using OpenAI equity as collateral has encountered resistance, forcing a significant scale-down and reflecting deep market doubts about AI investment returns.

On Friday, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, SoftBank has lowered the target size of this margin loan from $10 billion to as low as $6 billion, a reduction of 40%. Some potential lenders had concerns about how to value OpenAI, a non-listed company, causing the original plan to stall.

This change comes amid fundamental pressure on OpenAI itself. OpenAI failed to meet monthly sales targets several times in early 2026, and competitor Anthropic continues to erode its share in the programming and enterprise markets. The company’s internal goal of reaching 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of last year also was not met.

In response, OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar refuted this, claiming the company is meeting its objectives and seeing product demand "rise vertically."

Lenders’ Concerns: Valuing a Non-Listed Company

According to Bloomberg sources, SoftBank and its appointed banks have lowered the target amount to $6 billion in separate discussions with potential lenders in recent weeks. The discussions are ongoing and final borrowing amounts and other details may still change.

The core obstacle lies in valuation. Some investors lobbied to participate in this $10 billion loan have concerns about how to reasonably value OpenAI, which is not publicly listed. Potential lenders involved include private credit institutions, financial institutions, and hedge funds, with discussions beginning as early as mid-March.

SoftBank's AI Bet: Debt Continues to Swell

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to position the company as a global hub in the AI wave, even at the cost of taking on heavy debt. The group has recently made another $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, after having already invested more than $30 billion. In March this year, SoftBank completed a $40 billion loan, setting a company record for dollar-denominated loans, with part of the funds supporting its latest follow-on investment in OpenAI.

Meanwhile, debate over whether the enormous investments in AI can deliver adequate returns in the short term is intensifying, and this macro backdrop is also increasing concerns over SoftBank’s credit status.

Divergent Market Signals: Rising Stock Price, Climbing Credit Risk

Capital markets are split in their judgment of SoftBank. On one hand, SoftBank’s share price has risen 39% so far this year, far outperforming the 12.3% gain of Japan’s TOPIX index; on the other hand, the cost of hedging its debt credit risk continues to climb, with the credit default swap spread widening by about 61 basis points this year.

Rating agencies are also taking a more cautious stance. In March, S&P Global Ratings lowered SoftBank’s credit outlook from "stable" to "negative," citing concerns that investments in OpenAI may harm the company’s liquidity and asset credit quality.

The divergence between the stock and bond markets reflects investors’ complex attitudes toward SoftBank’s AI strategy—they are bullish on its strategic positioning but remain wary of its financial risk.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market poses risks, so be cautious with investments. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account users’ individual investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investment is at your own risk. ```