10% of Americans are already taking it; GLP-1 is reshaping the pharmaceutical, food, beverage, and restaurant industries.

``` A drug that suppresses appetite is quietly rewriting the American consumption map. According to news from Chasing Wind Trading Desk, on May 19, Deutsche Bank’s head of Global Macro and Thematic Research Jim Reid’s team released a report titled "Quantifying the Impact of GLP-1: Survey Shows Lasting Shifts in Pharma, Food, and Beverage Industries." The latest global consumer survey conducted by the bank from March 20 to March 30 (with 550 valid respondents) examined the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on multiple industries. Survey data shows that currently, 10% of Americans are or have been taking GLP-1 type drugs. Considering that more than 40% of American adults are obese, this number still has huge growth potential. More importantly, drug users have shown a sharp decline in behaviors such as dining at restaurants, ordering takeout, and drinking alcohol. GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) drugs, with Ozempic and Mounjaro as representatives, are now popular weight-loss medications. Their core mechanism is appetite suppression—not just "self-control," but a physiological decrease in cravings for food. 2030: Usage May Exceed 20% The key variable accelerating this trend is the imminent popularity of oral tablet versions. Previously, GLP-1 drugs were mainly injectable, which posed psychological and practical obstacles for many potential users. Analysts estimate that as more convenient oral versions enter the market, by 2030, the proportion of Americans taking GLP-1 drugs will exceed 20%—essentially doubling the current figure. In the report, Jim Reid compares GLP-1 with AI, calling them "two disruptive technologies simultaneously impacting the world." He writes: "AI may capture more attention from investors, but weight-loss drugs are quietly changing millions of people’s daily lives, one bite at a time." He even proposed a thought-provoking hypothesis: If users were forced to choose between GLP-1 and AI chatbots, currently, many would choose to keep GLP-1. Restaurants, Fast Food, Takeout, Alcohol: Consumption Down Across the Board Survey data reveals the direct impact of GLP-1 on consumption behavior, and the numbers are quite straightforward: While taking the drug, the visit rate to full-service restaurants dropped from 55% to 31%, nearly halved. Fast food and coffee shop visits fell from about two-thirds to 37%. Takeout and alcohol consumption rates also decreased from over half to about a third. This impact on the food service industry is direct and measurable. After Stopping the Drug, Habits Did Not "Rebound" Even more noteworthy are the data after stopping the drug. The usual logic is: once the medication is stopped, people “rebound” with consumption, so the losses to restaurants and food companies are only temporary. However, this survey breaks that expectation. Analysts point out clearly: In most cases, even after stopping GLP-1, users’ dietary and consumption habits remain at lower levels—new habits have become ingrained. Figure 1 shows that although there’s a slight rebound in consumption after stopping the drug, it does not return to pre-medication levels—whether it’s dining out, ordering takeout, or drinking alcohol, all show a "permanently lowered" trend. This means that the impact of GLP-1 on the food, beverage, and restaurant industries is not a short-term disturbance, but a structural reshaping of demand. What This Means for Investors The report divides the impact of GLP-1 into direct beneficiaries and those under pressure. The direct beneficiaries are obvious: pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk (Ozempic manufacturer) and Eli Lilly (Mounjaro manufacturer)—their demand continues to expand, and with the spread of oral versions, the market ceiling will rise further. Those under pressure cover a wider range: - Restaurant industry: Full-service restaurants, fast-food chains, and coffee brands face pressure both from lower visit frequency and average spending per customer - Food and beverage industry: Demand for snacks, sugary beverages, and alcoholic drinks is declining, and this decline is persistent - Takeout platforms: Order frequency is decreasing Jim Reid summarizes in the report: "If the demand for GLP-1 continues to rise, it will have a profound impact on daily life and market valuations—for both the benefited and impacted industries." ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The above content is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk. For more detailed interpretations, including real-time commentary and frontline research, please join [Chasing Wind Trading Desk Annual Membership] Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks and investments should be made cautiously. 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