10 trillion industry scale! The vast universe of China's commercial space behind the Zhuque-3

The successful orbit entry of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant breakthrough for China in the development of large liquid oxygen methane rockets, and is a milestone event for the commercial aerospace industry. With policy catalysts, accelerated technological breakthroughs, and increasing enthusiasm from capital markets, China’s commercial aerospace industry is entering a phase of rapid development.

According to analysts, with breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, the accelerated construction of satellite constellations, policy catalysts, and increasing investor interest, a trillion-yuan industry track is rapidly taking shape, presenting unprecedented opportunities for the commercial aerospace sector in China.

According to forecasts from the 2025 China Commercial Aerospace Forum, by 2030, China’s commercial aerospace industry is expected to reach a scale of 7–10 trillion yuan. "In the future, China will be capable of in-orbit spacecraft maintenance and construction, and space 4S shops, space hotels, and low-cost space tourism will no longer be pipe dreams."

The Era of Reusable Rockets Begins: Zhuque-3 Leads a Technological Breakthrough

The maiden flight of Zhuque-3 marks the beginning of the era of reusable rockets in China.

As a stainless steel rocket powered by liquid oxygen methane, Zhuque-3 aims to achieve low costs, high payload capacity, and frequent launches.

According to Blue Arrow Aerospace data, the rocket has a liftoff thrust exceeding 750 tons, with the goal of reusing the first stage up to 20 times, and reducing launch costs to around 20,000 RMB per kilogram.

Although full recovery of the first stage was not achieved on this launch, the development team has validated the feasibility of the testing, launch, and flight processes.

Dongwu Securities states that starting from the end of 2025, Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, Gravity-2, Hyperbola-3, and Zhishenxing-1 and other new commercial rocket models are scheduled for their maiden launches. If these reusable rockets achieve recovery, they could accelerate the deployment of domestic low-Earth-orbit satellite constellations.

The core value of reusable technology lies in dramatically reducing launch costs and shortening mission cycles. SpaceX, through the recovery and reuse of boosters, has cut launch costs by more than 70%, with Falcon 9’s launch costs controlled to about $3,000 per kilogram, while the target for Zhuque-3 is 20,000 RMB per kilogram—both are at a similar level.

More importantly, the high-frequency launch capability brings strategic value. Conventional rockets may take months or even years before a relaunch, whereas Falcon 9 boosters can be reused in just 21 days. This exponential increase in launch frequency not only enables faster satellite constellation deployment but also turns space launches from “occasional events” into “routine operations.”

Fierce Competition for Orbital Resources: China’s Satellite Constellations Catch Up

Aside from technological breakthroughs, China’s satellite constellation construction is accelerating across the board.

Dongwu Securities notes that near-Earth orbit can accommodate about 60,000 satellites, but the Ku and Ka-band communications spectrum used primarily by low-Earth orbit satellites is becoming saturated.

According to International Telecommunication Union (ITU) regulations, satellite orbit and communications frequency resources are allocated on a “first come, first served” basis. Companies must launch their first satellite within seven years of obtaining a license and must complete 10%/50%/100% of the declared satellites within 9/12/14 years after declaration.

In this “land grab,” Starlink has launched more than 10,000 satellites, gained over 8 million subscribers, and the network reaches average download speeds of 210 Mbps.

China currently has three major tens-of-thousands satellite constellation projects: China Satellite Network’s GW (12,992 satellites), Shanghai Yuanxin’s G60 Qianfan Constellation (15,000 satellites), and Blue Arrow Hongqing Technology’s Honghu-3 Constellation (12,000 satellites).

As of October 2025, China Satellite Network has launched a total of 116 satellites (including test and operational satellites), and Qianfan has launched and networked 108 satellites. Although there is still a gap compared to Starlink, launch frequency is becoming “everyday.”

According to Dongwu Securities, the core industrial chain currently being contested includes:

Upstream manufacturing: Satellite platforms, satellite payloads, rocket manufacturing, etc. Satellite manufacturing is evolving towards modular design, automated testing, and mass assembly, with production capacity expected to be released rapidly.Midstream launching: Rocket launch services are evolving towards reusability, low cost, and high payload—moving from validation phases to engineering applications and scaled development. The revolutionary significance of reusable rockets is in dramatically lowering launch costs, shortening mission cycles, and greatly increasing payload supply.Downstream applications: Satellite operation and services, including mobile satellite communications, broadband broadcasting, and ground equipment manufacturing. Ground equipment manufacturing accounts for 53% of global satellite industry revenue.

Policy Dividend Unleashed: Commercial Aerospace Department Founded to Lead Industry Upgrade

To meet growing market demand, top-level regulatory design is being improved.

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) recently established the Commercial Aerospace Department, and released the "Action Plan for High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025–2027)", formally integrating commercial aerospace into the national space development strategy.

According to Orient Securities' analysis, the establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Department signals that China’s commercial aerospace is entering an important phase of institutionalization, strategization, and systematization.

The newly released plan sets clear goals: By 2027, the scale of the commercial aerospace industry will have significantly expanded, fundamentally achieving high-quality development. To achieve these goals, policies provide support in the following areas:

Rocket sector: Focused support for low-cost, highly reliable, rapid-response, and reusable commercial launch vehicles, as well as integrated planning for commercial launch sites and offshore launch systems.

Satellite sector: Improvement of commercial satellite lifecycle management systems, and exploration of trusted satellite data sharing platforms and trading mechanisms.

Finance sector: Guidance to foster patient capital, encouragement for the creation of a national commercial aerospace development fund, and guidance to financial institutions and social capital for long-term strategic investment.

Orient Securities points out that in 2025, China’s satellite launch frequency will significantly increase, and accelerated satellite constellation networking will open up huge market space for both upstream and downstream industry chains. As private rocket R&D progresses, multiple new models are scheduled for maiden flights by year-end, signaling a pivotal moment for the industry.

A Singularity Moment for the Industry Chain: Trillion-Yuan Market Opens

With the combined forces of policy, technology, and capital, China’s commercial aerospace industry chain is ushering in a systematic opportunity. This massive market covers the full chain, from upstream manufacturing and midstream launching to downstream applications and operations.

A Dongwu Securities research report predicts that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry will show clear developmental trends:

Satellite manufacturing: Moving toward modular design, automated testing, and large-scale assembly, with capacity expected to expand rapidly. For example, after completion, the satellite “superfactory” in Wenchang, Hainan, will have an annual output capacity of 1,000 satellites.

Rocket launching: Moving from technological validation toward engineering applications and large-scale development, advancing in the directions of reusability, lower cost, and higher payload.

This historic opportunity is attracting deep investment from many enterprises along the industry chain, and has become a focus of the capital markets. From Zhuque-3’s launch attempt to the grand blueprint of national strategy, China's commercial aerospace "starry sea" journey has already begun.

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