$175 billion "tariff refund"! For US stocks, it's a "fiscal stimulus." For US bonds, it's "increasing debt." For gold and silver, it's "uncertainty returns."

$175 billion "tariff refund"! For US stocks, it's a "fiscal stimulus." For US bonds, it's "increasing debt." For gold and silver, it's "uncertainty returns."

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After the Supreme Court revoked Trump's tariff authority, U.S. stocks briefly rose on Friday, but investors should prepare for a new round of economic uncertainty.

On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariffs were illegal. The market expects pressures on future corporate profit margins to ease, risk appetite drove intraday gains in U.S. stocks, and after significant volatility throughout the day, all three major indices ended higher. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.7%, up 1.07% for the week, marking the best weekly performance since January 9.

(Weekly movement of major U.S. stock indices)

On the other hand, the ruling intensified market concerns about the U.S. government’s fiscal situation, especially as bond investors have questioned the ever-rising U.S. debt. U.S. bond yields hit daily highs, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.10%, while the dollar weakened.

(10-year U.S. Treasury yield)

Wallstreetcn reported that after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump used backup tools to impose a 10% global tariff, claiming tariffs would be “much higher” than before. Policy confusion combined with a weak dollar led gold to rise more than 2% on Friday, returning above $5,100. Spot silver soared 8%.

(Gold, silver, copper, and platinum all up this week)

Analysts believe that over the coming period, chaotic tariff policy and follow-up rebate issues will trigger multiple market reactions. Debt pressure, policy uncertainty, and asset price volatility will continue to affect investors in the coming months.

U.S. Stocks Face Short-Term Fiscal Stimulus

For U.S. stocks, the $175 billion potential tariff rebate is a short-term “fiscal stimulus.” This money will flow directly into corporate profits, especially for retail and consumer companies with high import volumes.

On Friday, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF gained 0.7%. Jefferies analysts pointed out that companies highly dependent on imports should benefit in the short term, such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria's Secret, Gap, and Birkenstock Holding, all of which maintained early gains.

Emarketer chief analyst Zak Stambor expects the ruling to moderately boost retail sales starting this year, though the benefit will gradually fade by 2028. He stated:

While this decision provides some short-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty facing retailers and brands.

During the wait for judicial rulings, over 1,500 companies, including Costco, have filed tariff lawsuits in trade courts seeking rebates.

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman noted that it will take time for companies to recover funds already paid, and apart from everyday items like milk and eggs, most product prices usually don’t drop once they have risen.

Veda Partners economics policy research director Henrietta Treyz observed that if another round of tariffs comes, compliance costs for importers will rise again, causing confusion and chaos at the border and disrupting uniform tariff schedules.

How Will the $2 Trillion Treasury Gap Be Filled?

For the U.S. Treasury market, the impact of the Supreme Court ruling is even more far-reaching.

Trump and Congress initially relied on tariff revenue to help pay last year’s large-scale tax cuts. According to estimates by the U.S. Federal Budget Committee, if this revenue cannot be replaced, the ruling could add more than $2 trillion to the current $38.7 trillion national debt over the next decade.

Analysts believe that if Trump cannot gain sufficient revenue from other tariff authorities, or if new tariffs spark greater economic turmoil, U.S. Treasury markets may face heavier selling pressure.

Wallstreetcn reported that on Friday, Besent stated in a Dallas Economic Club speech, “No one should expect tariff revenue to decrease.”

He emphasized that the Trump administration will invoke alternative legal powers granted by Congress, including Section 122 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, to replace the tariffs previously imposed under the now-overturned IEEPA basis.

According to U.S. Treasury estimates, combining Section 122 with potentially strengthened Section 232 and 301 tariffs will keep tariff revenue “basically unchanged” by 2026. He reiterated this judgment in the Q&A session after the speech, showing the administration’s confidence in building a new tariff system.

New Opportunities for Gold and Other Safe Haven Assets

For gold and other safe haven assets, the Supreme Court ruling and its aftermath may reignite demand for hedging.

Trump said on Friday, “Foreign countries that have taken advantage of us for years are celebrating. They are so happy, dancing in the streets, but they won’t be happy for long.” This statement reinforced market expectations of continued trade conflict.

But politically, tariff policy faces continuing resistance. Polls show nearly two-thirds of Americans believe tariffs make everyday items more expensive. Ahead of the November midterm elections, affordability remains a key weakness for Trump and the Republicans.

Analysts believe a single unfavorable court ruling will not change Trump's “fondness” for tariffs. Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Owen Tedford warned that Democrats will seize the opportunity to frame the new tariffs as “Liberation Day 2.0”—an allusion to the tariff announcement in April 2025 that caused global market turmoil.

This dual political and economic uncertainty is exactly the soil in which gold and other safe haven assets thrive. IDX Advisors’ Ben McMillan pointed out:

The market understands this will be a years-long chaotic legal battle. The Supreme Court ruling did not clarify refund details; they pushed it down to lower courts, which means there will be a large number of individual lawsuits.

McMillan further added that from a fiscal perspective, potential easing measures will maintain a low interest rate environment, "which favors gold," since gold usually performs well in low rate environments and does not pay interest.

Additionally, the latest U.S. actions against Iran are increasing global uncertainty, raising the appeal of gold and other safe haven assets.

Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted in a report that despite high volatility in December curbing purchases, central banks remain keen to increase gold holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks. This key driver for gold price increases is still strong.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market contains risks and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual user investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their own situation. Investment is at your own risk. ```