22% Higher than IPO Price! Crypto Market Bets Early on SpaceX's 2.2 Trillion Yuan Valuation, Musk Concept Shows Frenzied Premium Again

```

As retail investors to asset management giants rush to subscribe to the SpaceX IPO, the cryptocurrency market has already set a higher price.

According to US media reports on Thursday, the 11th, the perpetual futures contracts linked to SpaceX are currently trading at around $165 on crypto trading platforms such as Binance and Hyperliquid, which is about 22% higher than SpaceX’s announced IPO issue price of $135, corresponding to a company valuation of about $2.2 trillion.

This figure far exceeds the IPO issue price’s implied valuation of about $1.8 trillion, meaning the crypto market is betting on a significant rise after SpaceX goes public.

As the largest IPO in history enters the final pricing phase, excitement around this rocket, satellite, and AI company owned by Musk is heating up from Wall Street institutions to crypto traders.

Crypto Market “Prices In” First Day Gains Ahead of Time

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX perpetual contracts are currently trading around $165 on Binance and Hyperliquid.

Based on this price, SpaceX’s corresponding valuation is about $2.2 trillion, higher than the IPO issue price’s $1.8 trillion valuation.

For the market, this is essentially a bet on SpaceX’s first day performance after listing.

Apollo Crypto portfolio manager Pratik Kala said that if investors buy perpetual contracts at the current price, it is equivalent to betting that SpaceX’s price will rise at least 20% above the issue price after listing.

He said: “The current SpaceX perpetual contracts actually set a higher threshold for traders, while those shorting the contracts are betting on a lackluster first day performance for SpaceX.”

It is worth noting that such perpetual contracts do not represent real stock ownership nor confer any shareholder rights, and their prices are also affected by leverage, liquidity, funding rates, and settlement mechanisms.

But as a market sentiment indicator, their prices still reflect investors’ optimistic expectations for SpaceX’s post-listing performance.

Rare Consensus Between Wall Street and Crypto Markets

The SpaceX IPO is becoming a rare "all-market consensus trade" in recent years.

Earlier Thursday, US media reported that BlackRock had submitted over $5 billion in subscription orders, and multiple large asset management institutions, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds were actively participating.

Another US report said SpaceX’s IPO has attracted over $100 billion in retail subscription funds, with demand far exceeding available shares.

Now, the crypto market has joined the bullish camp.

Market participants believe this phenomenon is rarely seen in the history of major IPOs.

Traditional institutional investors, individual investors, and crypto traders usually have completely different investment logics and risk preferences, yet SpaceX is attracting all three types of capital at the same time.

For many investors, SpaceX is no longer just a commercial aerospace company, but a super-tech platform with satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and the story of future deep space exploration.

Perpetual Contracts Accurately Forecasted Cerebras’ US Stock Debut Surge

The crypto market has drawn attention partly because of its previous accurate predictions about the IPO performance of AI chip company Cerebras, a rival to Nvidia.

Bloomberg pointed out that before Cerebras' IPO, its perpetual contract prices already showed strong bullish signals, and after officially entering the capital markets, the stock surged 68% on its debut.

Now, SpaceX becomes the latest test case for this "prediction mechanism."

Data shows that since launching on May 18, SpaceX perpetual contracts have had an average daily trading volume exceeding $26 million. In the past 24 hours, volume surged further above $69 million. On Binance, the trading volume during the same period exceeded $180 million, with open interest totaling about $184 million.

As the IPO approaches, trading activity continues to climb rapidly.

Behind the Frenzy: Intense Valuation Debate

However, not all investors agree with the valuation the market is currently giving SpaceX.

At the IPO issue price, SpaceX is valued at about $1.8 trillion. Media cited analyst estimates that SpaceX's expected revenue this year is about $29.7 billion, giving it a price-to-sales ratio close to 60 times.

Some Wall Street insiders believe this valuation has already fully—and perhaps excessively—priced in future growth expectations. Well-known short seller Jim Chanos even described SpaceX as an “IPO full of hope and dreams.”

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens is more cautious.

His model gives SpaceX's core project Starship only about a 7% probability of achieving commercial success and estimates a fair value of $63 per share, less than half the IPO issue price.

But for supporters, traditional valuation frameworks may not apply to SpaceX.

As Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, said:

“It is very similar to early-stage cryptocurrency investing. In the worst case you may lose 100%, but if Musk is right, the upside could be exponential.”

Judging by the enthusiasm shown by Wall Street institutions, retail investors, and the crypto market, clearly more and more money is willing to pay a premium for such possibility.

With Thursday night’s pricing completed and the official Nasdaq debut on Friday, the valuation frenzy surrounding SpaceX is about to face its real test.

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual users' particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own circumstances. If you invest accordingly, you do so at your own risk. ```