300 billion vs 40 million: Trump’s touted Texas refinery project has an actual investment difference of 7,500 times

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Trump called Reliance Industries’ refinery project in Texas a "historic $300 billion deal," but the company’s actual initial investment was only around $40 million—over 7,500 times less.

According to the Financial Times report on June 8, the refinery project in Brownsville, Texas, is led by a relatively unknown company called America First Refining (AFR). Trump announced the deal on Truth Social in March, calling it a "historic" investment and thanking Reliance Industries for the "huge investment."

However, more than three weeks have passed and India’s largest conglomerate, Reliance Industries, has yet to file any related announcement with any stock exchange.

Media cited sources familiar with the deal as saying Reliance Industries remained silent precisely because its initial investment was far lower than Trump’s quoted figure and didn’t meet the disclosure threshold required for Indian listed companies. When asked if Trump exaggerated Reliance’s role, White House spokesperson only said the refinery has received a "historic foreign investment commitment" that will further consolidate America’s energy dominance.

Where did the $300 billion figure come from?

AFR has its own logic behind the $300 billion figure, but it is far from the usual meaning of "investment amount."

According to AFR, the number is based on a 20-year supply framework agreement: the refinery is expected to source $125 billion worth of shale oil and sell $175 billion in finished oil products—totaling $300 billion. AFR also said it had signed a "binding 20-year supply term sheet" with Reliance Industries.

When announcing the deal, AFR said it had "secured a nine-figure (USD) investment from a global super giant, with a ten-figure valuation." Later, AFR confirmed that the "super giant" was Reliance Industries, but did not specify the exact amount of the nine-figure investment and didn’t disclose Reliance’s stake in the refinery, which is expected to cost up to $4 billion.

Reliance Industries said that due to confidentiality agreements, it couldn’t disclose precise numbers, but confirmed, "The Reliance Group has invested and will participate in several aspects of the Brownsville refinery." AFR spokesperson Danielle Alvarez stated the company stands by all its statements, "including the investment amount and the $300 billion deal value."

Political Timing and Diplomatic Considerations

The timing of the deal announcement is intriguing. Trump’s statement came just weeks after his administration reached a delayed phased trade agreement with Indian Prime Minister Modi. According to CCTV News in February, the US and India announced a provisional agreement on reciprocal trade, reaffirming both sides’ commitment to broader US-India bilateral trade negotiations.

Trump also claimed New Delhi has pledged to stop buying discounted Russian oil—if fulfilled, this would directly cut Reliance Industries’ annual profits, about $6 billion since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, which were made through processing discounted Russian crude. However, after US-Israel-Iran tensions, Washington partially eased such restrictions.

Bhaskar Chakravorti, Chair of Global Business at Tufts University Fletcher School, said Reliance Industries "spent a lot of time and resources to create goodwill with Trump; India also spent a lot of time and resources seeking a trade agreement." He added, "Publicly correcting Trump could trigger a diplomatic incident and embarrass both Trump and the Modi government."

The Ambani Family’s Ties with Trump

Reliance Industries is chaired by Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani. Over the past year, the Ambani family has been actively strengthening its ties with the Trump family.

According to US Senate disclosures, Reliance Industries’ lobbying spending in the US in 2025 reached $240,000. Last year, Donald Trump Jr. visited Reliance’s refinery in western India and spent time with Mukesh’s son Anant Ambani at his private zoo. It’s also reported that Eric Trump said he’s pursuing "several" hotel projects in India, and a company affiliated with Ambani has paid the Trump Group $10 million in "development fees."

If the project materializes, the Brownsville refinery will be the first new refinery built in the US in 50 years—a significant achievement. However, the current status reflects more of the complex political and economic games between India and the US than a truly historic investment matching its publicity.

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