358% surge this year! Global AI chips are being choked by helium!

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Helium, this colorless and odorless inert gas, is becoming the most unexpected bottleneck in the global AI chip industry.

In the A-share market, the helium theme has quickly heated up, with related concept sectors rising nearly 13% over the past five trading days. On April 27, helium concept stocks collectively surged, with JinHong Gas up more than 20% at one point, Guangzhou Steel Gas up more than 14%, and stocks like Zhongtai Holdings and Jiufeng Energy following.

Behind the market surge is the continued rise of helium prices. Over the past week, helium prices have topped the charts among chemical products; domestic spot prices skyrocketed 175% in a single week, with cumulative gains of 358.33% so far this year.

The immediate catalyst for this price spike comes from a dual supply shock. First, Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City’s core facility was attacked and damaged, causing a tightening in about 30% of the world’s helium supply, with no clear timeline for recovery. Second, Russia announced a temporary export control on helium on April 14, with measures lasting until the end of 2027. According to Tianfeng Securities, after Russia’s export pause, both domestic long-term contract and spot import users were affected, import-control companies became reluctant to sell, and market circulation sharply decreased, further pushing prices higher.

A crisis originally seen as a localized chemical price hike is evolving into a systemic shock to AI chips, advanced semiconductors, and data center infrastructures.

Helium is an irreplaceable cooling medium for EUV lithography, and supply shortages have increased production costs for chip companies and formed substantial constraints on some factories' capacity. Analysts warn that if the crisis persists, advanced node yield rates at fabs such as TSMC and Samsung will be the first to come under pressure, and the supply chain stability for Nvidia GPUs and AI ASIC chips may be tested.

Double Impact: 40% of the World’s Helium Supply Cut Off Within Six Weeks

The root cause of this round of helium price surges lies in two nearly simultaneous systemic supply shocks.

The first shock comes from the Middle East—the core facility at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City was attacked and damaged. In March of this year, the facility was attacked, and recovery estimates have deteriorated from “a few weeks of repair” to “3-5 years of reconstruction,” resulting in a sudden loss of about 30% of global helium supply. CITIC Securities noted that in 2024, more than 60% of China’s helium imports come from Qatar, and every escalation in the Middle East directly impacts the domestic industrial chain’s security.

The second shock comes from Russia, which announced a temporary export control on helium. On April 14, 2026, the Russian government enacted this measure, lasting until the end of 2027. All exports must be personally approved by the Prime Minister, and only member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) are exempted. Russia is an important global helium producer, and this move effectively froze about 8%-9% of global active supply.

Combined, around 40% of the world’s helium supply was effectively cut off or frozen within just six weeks. According to Guojin Securities, the world’s main helium resource countries are the US, Qatar, Russia, and Algeria. With multiple points simultaneously affected, the supply-demand imbalance now far exceeds that seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Meanwhile, extended maintenance at Australian factories and the Red Sea shipping crisis have caused a 35% plunge in arrival volumes, commercial inventories have dropped to their lowest levels since 2008, and upstream players are showing clear reluctance to sell.

From Yield Rate to Capacity: How Helium Shortages "Clamp Down" on AI Chips

The reason helium can affect the nerves of the global AI chip industry lies in its irreplaceable core position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

Helium is the core cooling medium in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) processes and is widely used in dry etching. Advanced nodes 7nm and below—especially 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm AI semiconductors, HBM high-bandwidth memory, advanced DRAM, and similar products—are highly dependent on helium. In contrast, mature nodes above 28nm are relatively less reliant and can somewhat withstand supply shocks.

From the perspective of its impact, helium shortages first appear as a drop in yield rate. Dry etching is highly dependent on helium quality margin, and once supply is restricted, the impact on top nodes’ yield is particularly pronounced—this loss doesn’t directly show in production numbers, but continues to erode capacity in an "invisible" way. If the yield rate of TSMC’s 3nm/2nm lines drops by a few percentage points, supply for Nvidia GPUs, Broadcom AI ASICs, Apple mobile SoCs, and other core products will be directly stressed.

According to industry analysis, EUV-grade helium (6N/99.9999% purity) is currently in a globally hard shortage—some chip plants' inventories have bottomed out and capacity is being forcibly contracted. Each stage of new semiconductor factories—equipment installation, process certification, ramp up to mass production—consumes large amounts of specialty gases. The start-up windows for advanced production lines like Rapidus’ Chitose plant and TSMC’s Arizona and Kumamoto No.2 plants coincide with the current supply crisis peak, and the risk of potential delays cannot be ignored.

Analysis points out that with Middle Eastern tensions persisting and overseas capacity slow to recover, global helium supply concerns won’t dissipate anytime soon, and prices are expected to remain highly volatile. For downstream semiconductor and AI computing industries, the cost pressure and potential capacity risks exposed by supply chain fragility remain the core variables that cannot be avoided in the near term.

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