$4 red line breached! Gas prices across the US return to 2022 highs, becoming a "catalyst" for Trump to call for a ceasefire?

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Gasoline prices in the United States have broken through the $4 mark, putting the White House under familiar political pressure and, on the same day, prompting Trump to make his most direct public statement on ending the Iran war.

On Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that the United States could end the war within two to three weeks, regardless of whether a peace agreement is reached with Iran.

The news triggered an immediate market reaction—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the US dropped 1.5% that day and continued to fall. Previously, WTI closed above $100 per barrel for the first time on Monday, but had fallen below that mark by Wednesday morning.

For 40 million Americans who buy gasoline every day, a distant war is once again squeezing their household budgets. In March, the average retail gasoline price in the US surged more than 30% in a single month, becoming one of the direct sources of current inflationary pressure.

The Political Pressure Curve of 2022 Is Being Repeated

The last time the average US gasoline price reached $4 per gallon was in 2022. At that time, the Ukraine war triggered dramatic upheaval in the energy markets, inflation soared, and the president at the time faced growing political pressure from voters regarding living costs.

The current situation is highly similar. On the day the $4 threshold was crossed, Trump began to speak more directly about ending the Iran conflict. The timing of this alignment is hard to regard as mere coincidence.

Domestic Policy Tools Fail, Strait of Hormuz Dominates Oil Prices

Faced with rising oil prices, the White House has adopted a series of response measures: releasing strategic reserves, temporarily waiving long-standing shipping regulations, and allowing higher ethanol blend ratios this summer.

However, these measures have had little effect. The fundamental reason is that oil price trends are dominated by structural factors at the international level, which domestic policy cannot alter.

The scale of crude oil released from strategic reserves is disproportionate compared to the volumes blocked at the Strait of Hormuz. The two-month waiving period of shipping regulations failed to deliver the expected results due to tight supply in the global shipping market. The core variable of global energy prices remains the Strait of Hormuz.

Ceasefire Expectations Cannot Solve Immediate Concerns, Road to Lower Oil Prices Is Long

Even if Trump fulfills his ceasefire promise, whether gasoline prices can quickly fall remains a difficult question.

If Iran maintains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz when the war ends, energy flows will remain highly uncertain for a long time, and prices may stay high for quite a while.

Historical data provides a reference: in 2022, after US gasoline prices broke through $4 per gallon, it took five months to fall below that level again. Gasoline prices always "rise like a rocket, fall like a feather"—supply shocks tend to push prices up rapidly, while declines are slow and prolonged.

If this round of price shocks follows the same rhythm, high prices will persist through the US summer travel peak, which is precisely the time of year when gasoline consumption is most concentrated and consumer sensitivity is at its highest. It is also the most difficult period for Trump to endure political pressure.

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