$6 billion is enough to "crush" Bitcoin?

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Recent research shows that the market has seriously underestimated the threat of the "51% attack" facing Bitcoin, and attackers need only about $6 billion to destroy Bitcoin.

On October 9, Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, warned in his latest research that although both Bitcoin and gold are favored as "anti-currency depreciation trades," Bitcoin faces far greater risks than gold.

Attackers could control the Bitcoin network within a week by purchasing $4.6 billion worth of hardware, investing $1.34 billion to build data centers, plus about $130 million in weekly electricity costs.

(Bitcoin failed to rebound overnight, plunging about 3.3% from the day's high)

By shorting Bitcoin in the derivatives market, attackers could gain huge profits during a price crash, enough to cover the attack cost. Harvey emphasized:

You can destroy Bitcoin's value with $6 billion. Although such an attack sounds highly technical, it is very credible.

Matt Prusak, President of U.S. Bitcoin Corp, believes such concerns are exaggerated. It takes years to accumulate and deploy mining equipment, and shorting requires huge collateral, while exchanges could also halt suspicious trades.

51% Attack: Bitcoin’s Fundamental Threat

The 51% attack refers to a situation where a single party controls more than half of the blockchain network’s computing power.

Once successful, attackers can tamper with the ledger, forge transactions, or even launch “double spending” attacks—that is, repeatedly using the same digital token. By comparison, gold does not have such systemic risks.

In addition, the current boom in Bitcoin derivatives markets provides economic incentives for 51% attacks.

Harvey’s paper points out that traders can set up short positions, using less than 10% of daily trading volume to gain huge profits, enough to cover the cost of attack.

This profit mechanism dramatically increases the economic feasibility of such attacks, especially considering that attack costs account for only 0.26% of Bitcoin’s total network value, much lower than many investors expect. Harvey emphasized:

The low cost of attack is a serious problem for Bitcoin’s future viability and security.

Harvey further points out that such attacks are likely to be carried out overseas, because many regions lack effective measures against market manipulation.

Industry Divided on Attack Risk

Although Harvey issued grave warnings, there are different opinions within the industry.

Prusak believes that the economic feasibility is insufficient to support the 51% attack theory. He points out:

It would take years to accumulate and deploy enough mining equipment, which is not practical in reality.

Prusak also emphasizes that shorting Bitcoin requires huge collateral, and if exchanges suspect manipulation, they may suspend trading, making it impossible for attackers to cash out profits.

Other blockchains have indeed suffered 51% attacks in the past and survived.

Bitcoin fork Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic have both been attacked, but they are smaller blockchains with lower miner support and are more susceptible to manipulation.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk; investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investments based on this article are at your own risk. ```