68 empty oil tankers are entering! U.S. crude oil exports in April may hit a record high, Middle East conflict sparks oil rush

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The Iran War is reshaping the global oil landscape, with the United States rapidly rising as a key global swing supplier of crude oil. April export volumes are expected to set a record high.

According to oil and gas research agency Kpler, U.S. crude oil exports in April are expected to surge by nearly one-third from March’s 3.9 million barrels per day to 5.2 million barrels per day, with Asian buyer demand expected to soar by 82% to 2.5 million barrels per day. Currently, 68 empty oil tankers are heading to U.S. ports, far exceeding the 24 before the outbreak of the war and the yearly average of 27 last year. Kpler analyst Matt Smith described this as "a fleet of tankers flooding toward America."

This export wave has pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude above $110 per barrel, a four-year high. Although both the U.S. and Iran announced a fragile two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, WTI on Wednesday remained more than 40% higher than before the war. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain volatile—Iran promptly declared it would close the strait again in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

The export surge, while highlighting the United States' energy exporter status, has also redirected large quantities of crude to overseas buyers, thereby exacerbating domestic inflationary pressure and plunging the Trump administration into a dilemma: having to suppress domestic oil prices while also facing widespread public discontent over skyrocketing energy costs.

"Tanker Fleet" Floods to U.S. Ports

Kpler data shows the number of empty oil tankers heading to U.S. ports has now jumped to 68, more than double the average over the same period last year and far above pre-war levels, according to the agency’s vessel booking information and estimated arrival times.

"A fleet of tankers is coming here," said Matt Smith.

This trend profoundly demonstrates the strategic significance of the U.S. as a global swing supplier. However, strong demand from Asia could further push up domestic prices and intensify concerns of a new round of inflation.

Asia Faces Deep Supply Gap, Hormuz Ceasefire Prospects Unclear

The conflict has especially hit Asian buyers. According to Kpler, about 80% of oil and petroleum products passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 will go to China and neighboring countries. This key waterway, which carries around one-fifth of global oil supply, was nearly completely closed for several weeks after the war's outbreak, severely straining Asian energy supplies.

The ceasefire announcement once reignited hopes for reopening the strait and led to a rapid oil price drop. However, Iran immediately said it would close the strait again, leaving the ceasefire prospects highly uncertain. Before the ceasefire, weeks of blockage had already driven U.S. oil prices up by over 50%.

WTI Surges Past $110, Inflation Pressure Forces Political Dilemma

Surging exports and supply disruptions together drove WTI earlier this week above $110 per barrel, its highest in four years. As of Thursday, WTI was still more than 30% higher than before the war.

Soaring fuel costs are plunging the Trump administration into political difficulties. Trump promised to halve energy prices upon returning to the White House in 2025, but a Pew Research Center survey this week shows nearly 70% of Americans are concerned about price surges triggered by the Iran war, and Trump’s approval rating has declined sharply. Currently, U.S. gasoline retail prices have topped $4 per gallon for the first time in four years, and diesel prices—vital for transportation and agriculture—are near the all-time high of $5.81 per gallon.

In response, the Trump administration announced the release of more than 170 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the relaxation of pollution emission rules to try to suppress oil prices. But analysts warn this could backfire—relatively cheap U.S. oil will only attract more overseas buyers eager for supplies.

"Because the U.S. government is trying to suppress domestic oil prices, these measures simply make U.S. oil even more attractive to foreign buyers," Matt Smith said. He also noted that domestic production growth is insufficient to provide effective support. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated SPR can release about 1-1.5 million barrels daily, but the U.S. consumes about 20 million barrels a day, and the war has caused daily supply disruptions of 10-15 million barrels in the Gulf, a gap far beyond what SPR releases can fill.

Venezuelan Crude Imports Underpin Export Expansion

Rystad analyst Susan Bell noted that increased imports of Venezuelan crude are providing vital support for the expansion of U.S. exports. The U.S. had previously taken control over Venezuelan leader Maduro.

"The trend of importing Venezuelan crude continues to strengthen, and we believe this will drive more WTI crude towards exports," she said.

Many U.S. refineries are engineered to process heavy crude from Venezuela, Canada, and others, so domestically produced light shale oil increasingly goes to export markets, forming a structural pattern of swapping heavy oil imports for light oil exports.

Export Ban Debate Heats Up, Political Winds May Shift with Oil Prices

Rising domestic oil prices have fueled calls in political circles to limit exports. Democratic Representative Brad Sherman of California said he will soon introduce the "No US Oil Exports During Iran War Act," asserting the bill "puts U.S. consumers first and ensures energy resources are used to stabilize domestic prices."

The Trump administration has so far explicitly rejected an export ban. Analysts say a ban would cause some oil products to be stranded domestically and force refiners to cut output, likely pushing prices up rather than down.

However, ClearView Energy Partners analyst Kevin Book warned that with Middle East tensions continuing to disrupt prices and the November midterm elections nearing, the White House’s stance may shift. "We believe officials are aware of the negative impacts of controls on refiners. But a bad idea rejected at $4-per-gallon gas may be reconsidered at $6," he said.

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