A few ships "can only pass by sailing along the Iranian coastline"! To restart the Strait of Hormuz, only an Iranian ceasefire will suffice.
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As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has plunged into extreme decline. While a few ships are still passing through, the passage is more akin to “controlled release.”
JPMorgan stated in its latest client report that shipping in the strait is sparse and “the vast majority are Iran-related.” Iran appears to allow passage for some ships after completing inspections. Analysts from the bank wrote:
“In reality, this creates a situation: while the strait isn’t formally closed, passage increasingly depends on political understanding with Tehran.”
Ship tracking data shows that a few permitted vessels have abandoned conventional routes, choosing instead to pass through the channel between Larak and Qeshm Islands, sailing close to the Iranian coastline. The report states: “This is not a standard route, reflecting a process aimed at confirming vessel ownership and cargo, enabling passage for ships unrelated to the U.S. and its allies.”
For example, some ships headed to India have obtained safe passage permits after negotiations between relevant governments and Iran. The Indian LPG carrier “Nanda Devi” arrived at Vadinar port on March 17 after being permitted to pass through the strait.
Regarding differentiation in “who is more likely to be allowed passage”, JPMorgan says Iran usually regards China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, etc. as “neutral or friendly,” and is more likely to prioritize their passage; while Japan, Korea, the UK, France, Italy, etc. tend to coordinate with the U.S. and explore escort options rather than negotiate directly with Tehran.
According to shipping consultancy Kpler, currently only about 2 tankers pass through the strait daily, compared to about 100 before the conflict. About 400 tankers remain stranded around the strait. As a result, Brent crude prices have surged 40% since the end of February, now staying above $100 per barrel.
Escort Plans Underwhelming: Allies Question Effectiveness of Military Intervention
Faced with the blocked strait, Trump urged allies to send warships to help reopen the Strait, proposing a multinational naval escort for commercial ships.
However, this proposal met with a lukewarm response from European and Asian partners. Many governments believe that even with increased naval power, the marginal impact is limited, since the U.S. already has a significant military presence in the region, and “substantially unblocking” the strait remains far from sufficient.
After allies’ enthusiasm remained low, according to Xinhua News, Trump stated on social media Tuesday that the U.S. no longer needs assistance from NATO countries or Japan, Australia, Korea. Although he did not refer to the Strait of Hormuz by name, the market interpreted it as a signal that his escort mobilization was frustrated.
Analysts generally believe the bottleneck is not “whether there are warships”, but whether Iran’s low-cost deterrence can be eliminated. Rapidan Energy Group president and former White House official Bob McNally said:
“Securing the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. Until we eliminate Iran’s layered asymmetric capabilities, mines, fast attack boats, submarines, and drones, we are not willing to let merchant ships or even escort ships pass through.”
Geographical conditions also amplify the difficulty of escorting. The strait’s narrowest point is less than 30 miles, and the shipping lane is within effective range of missiles, drones, and small boats. Former U.S. Navy officer and Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies co-founder John Bradford said:
“Ships must be within the warship’s weapons defense zone to be protected, which also means that each escort can only protect a limited number of ships.”
Alternate Routes Scarce; Even Ceasefire Leaves Markets Worried About ‘Latent Threats’
Reports indicate that while the strait is blocked, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are moving some oil via pipelines to bypass the strait, but this cannot fully replace the volume normally transported through the strait.
Analysts believe container shipping is also affected. Some shipping companies are choosing longer and more expensive alternative routes to avoid risks, U.S. ports face higher uncertainty, and marine fuel oil prices are rising.
The market is betting that only a ceasefire may ease navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. But there are concerns that even if the war ends, the strait may not “reopen” immediately. Iran may maintain deterrence through sporadic attacks, keeping the route risk at levels unbearable for commercial shipping.
Trump himself acknowledges the threat remains. Over the weekend, he stated that even if Iran’s military is “100% destroyed,” Tehran could still “easily” threaten ships with drones, mines, and short-range missiles.
Verisk Maplecroft’s chief Middle East analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt told Bloomberg TV: “As long as there is this latent threat to shipping—and we’ve already seen over 10 vessels attacked in the region—Iran doesn’t need to close the Strait of Hormuz. They just need to create sufficient threat to make passage unfeasible or too risky.”
Event statistics are also accumulating. MarketWatch cites UK Maritime Trade Operations under the British Royal Navy, stating that from the start of the war to Tuesday, they received 21 reports of incidents affecting vessels in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and waters around Oman, 16 of which were attack reports.
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