A major Saudi oil pipeline was attacked on Thursday, causing a sharp drop in shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Houthi rebels claimed to have captured 5,400 square kilometers in nine days.

The risks to energy transport in the Middle East continue to escalate. As a key Saudi oil pipeline was attacked and caught fire on Thursday, Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed significant gains on the western Red Sea coast, while the number of ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plummeted to single digits.

According to US media reports on Friday, September 11 (Eastern Time), a major Saudi oil pipeline was attacked by projectiles and caught fire on Thursday. The pipeline transports crude oil between Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields and export facilities along the Red Sea coast, and is a crucial alternative oil transport route for Saudi Arabia amid navigation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday afternoon, after news of the attack on the Saudi oil pipeline broke, international crude oil futures reacted relatively calmly, maintaining an intraday decline of more than 2%.

Earlier on Friday, CCTV International News, citing a video statement released on September 11 by Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya, reported that the Houthis launched a large-scale offensive against Saudi-backed forces on Yemen's west coast on September 3, capturing six districts in Taiz and Hodeidah provinces within nine days, covering an area of 5,400 square kilometers. The Houthis also claimed that the operation resulted in hundreds of enemy casualties or prisoners, and that they intercepted 32 Saudi warplanes and shot down nine drones.

According to Xinhua News Agency, shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has been significantly affected after the Houthi rebels captured the Red Sea port city of Muha. Around 3 PM local time on the 10th, only six ships passed through the Strait, compared to 30 on the 9th, 26 on the 8th, and 29 on the 7th. Xinhua stated that the Houthi rebels continued their advance into the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding islands after capturing Muha, leading to new changes in the Red Sea shipping lanes.

However, signs of de-escalation emerged on Friday. CCTV News reported that the Houthi Supreme Political Council issued a statement that day, indicating that fighting in the provinces along the western Red Sea coast had ceased and calling on all sides to pressure Saudi Arabia to prevent further escalation.

Attacks on Saudi oil pipelines put alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz at risk.

CNN reported that projectiles struck facilities along Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline on Thursday, causing fires. A U.S. official revealed that preliminary analysis indicated a pumping station adjacent to the pipeline was attacked. Satellite images showed extensive fire damage at one of the pumping stations on Friday; another image taken on Thursday showed a smaller fire near another pumping station, with thick black smoke billowing from it.

CNN reports that it is currently unclear who carried out the attack, or whether the pipeline itself was damaged. However, a U.S. official stated that the attack may have been carried out by a drone originating from Iraq . Sources also indicate that it is unclear how long it will take to repair the damaged facilities.

Satellite monitoring data detected nine large fires near Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline on Thursday. However, at least six of these fires appear to correspond to flare pits along the pipeline route. Flare pits are facilities used by oil and gas facilities to burn off oil and gas in emergencies, so not all fires detected by satellites indicate an attack.

The core function of the aforementioned attacked oil transport route is to help Saudi Arabia bypass the Strait of Hormuz, transporting some of its crude oil to the Red Sea for export via sea. If this route is continuously disrupted, Saudi Arabia's alternative means of mitigating the navigational risks posed by the Strait of Hormuz will also be affected.

It is worth noting that earlier on Friday, CCTV International News, citing US media Axios, reported that Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman called US President Trump twice on September 10, urging the US to launch an attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but Trump rejected the request.

U.S. officials stated that the U.S. government currently has "no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis." This means that, given the attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and the expansion of Houthi-controlled territory, the U.S. is still avoiding opening a new military front against the Houthis.

Traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has plummeted as the Houthis announce the "results" of their recent offensive.

Xinhua News Agency reports indicate that ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is declining significantly.

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing data from the Saudi Arabian industry magazine "Middle East Logistics," only six ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait around 3 p.m. on the 10th, with five leaving the strait and one entering; while 30 ships passed through on the 9th, and 26 and 29 ships passed through on the 8th and 7th respectively.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is one of the world's most important shipping routes. With the Houthi rebels recently expanding their control along Yemen's west coast, the security risks faced by shipping companies have further increased.

On September 11, the Houthi rebels announced a large-scale "victory" in response to their previous offensive.

Yahya Sarreya stated that the Houthi offensive, launched on September 3, targeted "Saudi-backed forces" and has captured six districts in Taiz and Hodeidah provinces, controlling an area of 5,400 square kilometers. The operation also targeted seven divisions and 38 brigades of the Houthis, resulting in hundreds of casualties or captures, and the rescue of several Houthi prisoners.

The Houthis also claimed that they intercepted 32 Saudi warplanes and shot down 9 drones during the operation.

These data mainly come from unilateral statements by the Houthis and cannot be fully verified by independent channels at present. Therefore, they are more suitable as a demonstration of the results of their recent military operations rather than an indication that they continued to advance towards the Red Sea coast on Friday.

In fact, CCTV News quoted a statement from the Houthi Supreme Political Council that day, saying that the fighting in the provinces on the west coast of the Red Sea had stopped and called on all sides to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to avoid further escalation of the situation.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that it will meet with Gulf states in Oman next Monday.

In contrast to the military risks in the Red Sea, there are new signals of diplomatic coordination regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a Xinhua News Agency report citing Iran's Fars News Agency on the 11th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae announced that Iran, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf littoral states will hold a regional meeting in Oman on the 14th to exchange views on establishing a safe shipping route for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Financial Times previously reported that the foreign ministers of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries planned to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Salalah, a coastal city in Oman, on September 14, next Monday. The meeting, led by Oman, aimed to garner support for temporary arrangements to regulate the passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the Financial Times report, Baga'e stated on social media that the meeting next Monday will be held in Oman, with Iran, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf states participating. The agenda includes regional issues and the outcome of negotiations between Iran and Oman on secure shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.

He also stated that Iran and Oman have reached an understanding regarding a temporary navigation route in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran remains committed to maintaining maritime security, but cannot guarantee shipping safety given the ongoing US maritime blockade and "economic war."

This diplomatic development, coupled with the Houthi announcement of a cessation of fighting on the western Red Sea coast, partially explained the pullback in oil prices from their intraday highs on Friday.

As of Thursday, Brent crude had risen for five consecutive trading days, accumulating a 12.68% increase based on closing prices; WTI had risen for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating a 22.88% increase over those eight days. Earlier on Friday, WTI briefly fell to $98.48 per barrel, a 3.9% drop on the day; Brent briefly fell to $103.50 per barrel, a drop of over 3.8% on the day.

On Friday afternoon, despite the latest news, including the attack on Saudi oil pipelines, international crude oil prices did not reverse their previous decline. WTI remained above $99.90, while Brent hovered around $105, with a drop of more than 2%.

This means that, at least based on Friday's market pricing, the supply risks brought about by the attack on Saudi oil pipelines and the sharp drop in shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not yet outweighed the impact of easing signals such as the possible temporary commercial arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of fighting on the western shore of the Red Sea on oil prices.

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