A new round of Iran negotiations, but the stock market is completely indifferent, focusing entirely on "AI bottlenecks" such as CPUs and optical communications.
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Goldman Sachs believes that behind the repeated record highs of the U.S. stock market, risks are quietly accumulating.
On April 24, the Goldman Sachs Delta One trading desk warned that despite the continued market rebound and the S&P 500 index hitting new historical highs, there has been no substantial improvement in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Rich Privorotsky, head of the Goldman Sachs trading desk, pointed out that negotiations themselves are easy to start, but solving the problems is much harder. Now, oil product prices are constantly rising, inventories are being rapidly depleted, yet the stock market seems to ignore all this.
(Since April, U.S. stocks have shown an independent upward trend)
Goldman Sachs believes that the current market is focusing all its attention on the AI-driven demand narrative, and the focus is extending upstream from GPUs, with CPUs and optical communications becoming new supply bottlenecks, echoing the shortages heard in the supply chain in DRAM, packaging, electricity, cooling, and other segments.
Strait of Hormuz: Fragile Ceasefire, Inventory Crisis
According to the analysis by Goldman Sachs Delta One trading desk, there has been no substantive improvement in the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The current ceasefire remains fragile, and prediction markets are also bearish about the situation, believing the probability of resolving the issue by the end of May is less than 40%.
More realistic pressure comes from the inventory side. Privorotsky pointed out that inventories are being depleted rapidly, and each additional day of closure will compound the issues.
The refined oil market has given a clear signal: gasoline, heating oil, and diesel prices are all hitting new highs. He emphasized that current tanker misalignments, refining capacity limitations, and tightness in the refined oil market mean that even if good news appears, the actual impact will continue to ferment.
From a trading perspective, Goldman Sachs believes going long on Brent crude oil futures for December 2026 remains the best way to express this trade at present.
AI Narrative Takes Over Pricing: From GPU to CPU and Optical Communication
One reason the stock market remains immune to energy risks is the outstanding performance of technology companies in the first quarter.
Privorotsky pointed out that the AI-driven demand remains the focus of the market, with Siemens Energy's stronger-than-expected orders and Intel's strong performance further reinforcing the narrative of "more computing power, more electricity, more infrastructure."
It is noteworthy that this story line is evolving: from GPUs gradually moving to memory and a broader AI "scaffolding" field—that is, CPUs plus optical interconnection.
Bottlenecks have already appeared in various supply chain segments—DRAM, packaging, electricity, and cooling—all becoming new structural tension points.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF has closed up for 18 consecutive trading days, setting a historical record, with expectations already embedded in the prices.
Technical and Positioning Signals Are Becoming Fragile, Asymmetry Starts to Reverse
On the technical side, Privorotsky pointed out that current U.S. stock movements are highly reflectively linked with energy prices.
His model shows that we are currently in the "late-cycle tightening" phase—which is typically one of the worst quadrants for risk asset performance, characterized by a flattening yield curve and rising long-term rates.
The divergence between short-term rates and the stock market still exists: if energy prices fall, the divergence may converge; if energy prices remain high, the split will intensify further.
In terms of volatility, the European market is exhibiting "short gamma" characteristics, while the U.S. market could return to a "long gamma" range after a rapid rebound.
Regarding positions, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) released a position risk exposure index that has recovered to 94, together with several indicators pointing to a sharp increase in investor risk appetite.
Meanwhile, with month-end approaching, the selling pressure from month-end rebalancing in U.S. stocks is one of the largest on record.
Privorotsky judges that from a longer-term perspective, the current technical momentum for buying has clearly weakened, and asymmetry is beginning to turn downward. He said:
From a more macro perspective, the technical buying momentum here is already weakening, asymmetry is beginning to tilt to the other direction, I have always been and will continue to remain cautious at my current position.
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