A "Super Week" is coming: Will the Fed raise interest rates? Can Hormuz reach an agreement?

A "Super Week" is coming: Will the Fed raise interest rates? Can Hormuz reach an agreement?

A summary of major financial events for the week of September 14th-20th, all times are Beijing time:

The Financial Calendar reminds you of the key points to watch next week:

A Super Central Bank Week and China's August Economic Data: The Federal Reserve will announce its FOMC interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Warsh. Whether to raise rates or keep them unchanged is "expected to be a close contest." Additionally, the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points, with the focus on signals regarding the future pace of rate hikes. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged. Regarding Chinese data, on September 15th, August's economic data, including industrial value-added , retail sales , national real estate development investment , and housing prices in 70 cities , will be released. CICC Macro predicts that retail sales growth is likely to rebound, and industrial value-added year-on-year growth may reach 4.6%.

AI Hard Verification Week: ByteDance's "Doubao Phone" will be released and launched, becoming the world's first AI-powered smartphone jointly developed by ZTE and ByteDance; Honor's MagicOS 11 will be launched on the same day with the system-level Agent Harness; Huawei Connect 2026 will be held in Shanghai, with the main market focusing on the commercial details of the Atlas 950 SuperPoD supernode and the first batch of new AI computing power products; Anthropic is expected to hold its developer conference in mid-September.

Regarding the Hong Kong stock market mechanism: The optimization plan for the TECH 100 Index took effect on September 14 , and the sample of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index was adjusted; the consultation on the expansion and reorganization of the Hang Seng TECH Index closed on September 18, expanding to 50 stocks and introducing 10 factors with "fastest revenue growth"; Shein was officially included in the Hang Seng Composite Index on September 15.

On a geopolitical level , Iran will discuss the Hormuz Agreement with Gulf states, with the meeting scheduled for September 14 in Oman. The 13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum is a key platform for observing Asia-Pacific security; the 2026 SCO Digital Economy Forum and the IAEA Board of Governors will also take place concurrently.

Economic indicators

  • Federal Reserve interest rate decision

The Federal Reserve will announce its FOMC interest rate decision in the early hours of September 17, followed by a press conference by Chairman Kevin Warsh. Bloomberg reports that whether to raise rates or keep them unchanged is "expected to be a close contest." The main focus will be on the decision to raise rates or remain on hold, and Warsh's policy statements.

  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday, September 18, followed by a press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda. Bloomberg predicts a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25%, a rate increase already widely priced in. The key focus will be on signals regarding the future pace of rate hikes.

  • Bank of England interest rate decision

The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, September 17. Bloomberg News reports that it is "expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%," as policymakers weigh re-emerging inflation risks against a weak economic backdrop. The key focus will be on balancing inflation with economic weakness.

  • China's August retail sales, fixed asset investment, industrial value-added, and housing prices in 70 cities, among other data, are among the data released.

On September 15th, a series of data were released in China for August, including retail sales, fixed asset investment, industrial value-added, and housing prices in 70 cities. CICC Macro predicts that retail sales growth is likely to rebound, with a year-on-year increase of around 1%. Industrial value-added growth is expected to be 4.6% year-on-year. Real estate sales may weaken marginally, and development investment may continue to face pressure.

Financial events

  • Iran will discuss the Hormuz Agreement with Gulf states.

According to a report by the Financial Times on September 11, cited by CCTV International News, foreign ministers of Gulf states plan to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. The meeting, spearheaded by Oman and Iran, aims to secure support for a provisional agreement to regulate shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The report, citing two sources familiar with the matter, stated that the meeting is scheduled for next Monday (September 14) in the Omani coastal city of Salalah.

  • Bessant is expected to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

On September 15, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is expected to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the international financial system.

  • The "Bean Bun Phone" was launched and put on the market; Honor MagicOS 11 was implemented with Agent Harness.

ZTE and ByteDance have jointly developed the world's first AI-powered smartphone, the Nubia NaviX Ultra (also known as the "Bean Bun Phone" or "Bean Bun Phone 2nd Generation"), which has officially announced its release and launch date as September 16th at 2:00 PM. Additionally, Honor's MagicOS 11 was released on the same day, featuring system-level Agent Harness, highlighting the importance of edge agent capabilities in smartphone competition.

  • Huawei Connect 2026 (Shanghai)

The 11th Huawei Connect conference will be held in Shanghai from September 17th to 19th. According to Huawei, the conference will focus on AI infrastructure and industry intelligence, and may release new computing power products and partner programs, echoing the boom cycle of AI computing power. The Atlas 950 SuperPoD supernode, which made its real-world debut at the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, is expected to release more commercial details and test data at this conference.

  • Anthropic Developer Conference (Signal: Mid-September)

According to SkyCrumbs, Anthropic has hinted at holding a developer conference in mid-September and plans to announce its product roadmap.

  • Hang Seng Tech Index Expansion and Reorganization

At 00:00 on September 18th, the consultation period for the Hang Seng Indexes Company's proposed expansion and restructuring plan for the Hang Seng TECH Index closed on the same day. The plan aims to expand the index to 50 stocks, with AI as a separate theme, and 10 slots reserved for companies with the fastest revenue growth. The final plan was finalized by the end of September. The key point is the reshaping of expectations for the included stocks under the new regulations, particularly the spread of passive funds to algorithm and AI-related companies, which has medium- to long-term indicative significance for the structural capital flows in the Hong Kong stock technology sector.

  • The 13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum

The 13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum will be held from September 15 to 17. This is an important defense and security dialogue platform in the Asia-Pacific region.

  • Semicon India, a leading professional event for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing.

Semicon India opened in New Delhi, bringing together global semiconductor and policy leaders. The conference runs from September 17th to 19th.

  • The 23rd China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO), the 2026 SCO Digital Economy Forum

The 23rd China-ASEAN Expo will be held in Nanning from September 17 to 21, with the theme "Sharing Opportunities 3.0". It will feature an ASEAN Demand Pavilion and an AI Exhibition Area (dual venues) for the first time, focusing on the implementation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. In addition, according to CCTV News, citing the National Data Administration, the 2026 SCO Digital Economy Forum will be held in Urumqi, Xinjiang, from September 14 to 16, with the theme "Data Connects SCO, Intelligence Creates the Future".

  • The inaugural Canada Investment Summit (hosted by Prime Minister Carney)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted his first investment summit in Toronto on September 14-15, inviting global capital firms such as BlackRock and Blackstone to leverage $1 trillion in investment over five years. The 167 project brochures cover data centers, LNG, and key minerals.

  • The iPhone 18 Pro will be available on September 18th.

The iPhone 18 Pro will be available on September 18th, with pre-orders starting on the 12th.

  • Japan is scheduled to reshuffle its cabinet on September 17.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is actively coordinating to decide on the top personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party on September 16, 2026, and to implement a cabinet reshuffle on September 17.

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting may focus on the Iranian nuclear issue.

The 70th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is scheduled to be held from 14 to 18 September 2026 at the Vienna International Centre in Vienna, Austria. The core topics of this conference will revolve around the Iranian nuclear crisis, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, and the transformation and upgrading of nuclear safety standards.

  • Hong Kong's first five-year plan was announced on September 16.

According to Voice of the Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that Hong Kong's first Five-Year Plan will be released together with a new Policy Address on September 16.

Financial reports and individual stock dynamics

Next week marks the off-season for earnings reports in the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong stock markets. Trip.com, a Chinese concept stock, will release its Q2 and first-half results after the US market closes on September 15th (Eastern Time). On September 16th, Evergrande Auto's board meeting will review supplementary earnings releases.

  • Muxi Co., Ltd.: 13.97 million restricted shares will be available for trading starting September 17.

According to an announcement by Muxi Co., Ltd., the restricted shares to be listed and traded this time are 13.97 million shares allocated offline during the company's initial public offering, accounting for 3.4906% of the company's total share capital. The lock-up period for the aforementioned shares is 9 months from the date of the company's initial public offering and listing. The lock-up period for these restricted shares is about to expire, and they will be available for trading on September 17, 2026.

  • China International Capital Corporation (CICC): Merger approved; A-shares to be suspended from trading starting September 15.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved its proposed share swap merger with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, involving dissenting shareholders' requests for the acquisition of its A-share shares. Trading of CICC's A-shares will be suspended from the opening of the market on September 15, 2026.

  • Hang Seng Indexes Company: hope Yin will be quickly included in the Hang Seng Composite Index

Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited announced that Heywin meets the requirements for fast-track inclusion and will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and its sub-indices after the market closes on September 14. It will take effect at the opening of trading on September 15.

Early warning of major events (September 21-27)

Bank of America Hartnett predicts a major diplomatic event between the US and China on September 24.

The 2026 Alibaba Cloud Computing Conference (September 22-24, Hangzhou) will break down the five layers of full-stack technology around models, agents, and agentic cloud, and release Alibaba Cloud's core technologies and annual products.

GMIF 2026 Global Memory Industry Innovation Summit (September 22-23, Shenzhen) – Focusing on the evolution and industry collaboration of storage technology in cloud, edge, and terminal scenarios in the AI era.

Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit 2026 (September 23-25, Beijing time, Hawaii) – will launch the first Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen6 chip (standard version SM8950 and Pro version SM8975) using TSMC's 2nm process, with an 18% performance improvement and a 36% reduction in power consumption; Xiaomi 18 series will be the first to launch it, followed by Samsung, OPPO and other brands.

Meta Connect 2026 (September 23-24) – Multiple XR hardware products and new smart glasses are ready to be launched, with Zuckerberg's keynote speech.

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