"‘A US-Iran deal is imminent’ narrative returns, but Iran refuses to give up the Strait of Hormuz as a ‘bargaining chip’"

"‘A US-Iran deal is imminent’ narrative returns, but Iran refuses to give up the Strait of Hormuz as a ‘bargaining chip’"

The narrative of "an imminent US-Iran peace agreement" has resurfaced, but the differences between the two sides on core issues remain profound. Iran has explicitly refused to relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, and there is significant uncertainty about whether the agreement will be implemented.

On Friday afternoon, Xinhua quoted US Bloomberg as reporting that the US and Iran are "close" to signing an agreement around the time of next week's G7 summit. According to the report, the signing ceremony is most likely to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, possibly as early as Sunday. Trump stated on Thursday that Iran's Supreme Leader has approved the relevant plan, the agreement will be completed within a few days, and Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend the signing ceremony.

However, the statements from Iran clearly diverge from this optimistic narrative. According to Iran's Fars News Agency quoting informed sources, Iran's internal review and decision-making process is not yet complete, and reports of a signing ceremony in Geneva on Sunday are pure fabrication. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said late at night on the 11th local time that news claiming "the agreement is finalized" or "about to be signed" is inaccurate, and Iran has not made a final decision on the agreement.

Meanwhile, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy Admiral Habibollah Sayari publicly declared that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran's "firm control," and no vessel may enter without permission, directly rebutting Trump's claims that Iran's military strength has been fully weakened. This situation has made the market cautious about the outlook of the negotiations.

Core Contradiction: Dispute over Control of the Strait of Hormuz

The most acute disagreement in the negotiations centers on the future arrangement of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media explicitly stated: "Contrary to what Western media reports, Iran will not promise to give up control over the Strait of Hormuz. The only issue mentioned in the memorandum of understanding is restoring navigation in the Strait after the war ends."

According to semi-official Iranian news agency Mehr, the draft being negotiated by both sides states that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened within 30 days according to Iran's plans. The US will play no role in future management of the Strait, Iran will not promise to transfer control or restore the pre-strike status quo.

Meanwhile, Iran Revolutionary Guard Navy Admiral Sayari stated to official media: "West of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait itself, and the Persian Gulf are all under the firm control of the IRGC Navy. No vessel may enter without Iran's permission." The Pentagon strongly rebutted this claim.

14-point Draft Revealed: Iran's Demands are Clear, Key Issues Remain

According to Xinhua, Iran's Mehr News Agency on the 12th released what is said to be a 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, which has not yet been officially confirmed by either Iran or the US. Main points include:

  • Immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon;
  • The US commits not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and withdraws military forces from the surroundings of Iran;
  • Lifting the maritime blockade completely within 30 days;
  • Suspend sanctions against sales of Iranian oil, petrochemical products and derivatives;
  • The US and its allies must propose at least a $300 billion Iranian reconstruction plan;
  • During the final 60-day negotiation, unfreezing $24 billion in Iranian frozen assets, with half to be provided before the negotiations start;
  • Iran reiterates its commitment not to produce nuclear weapons, but concrete arrangements on the nuclear issue will be resolved in the subsequent 60-day negotiation;
  • Iran's missile program and support for resistance organizations are explicitly excluded from the agenda.

According to Iran's state news agency IRNA, sanctions issues will be handled after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and the end of the 60-day peace negotiation period: "Iran does not make any commitments regarding the nuclear issue in the memorandum, and the other side does not promise to lift sanctions."

Divergent Statements: Agreement Framework Exists, But the Outcome Remains Unclear

Despite rising optimism externally, the gap between both sides' official positions remains significant.

Trump stated on Thursday that Iran's Supreme Leader has signed and approved the relevant proposal, the agreement will be finalized within days, and will pave the way for subsequent nuclear negotiations. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei responded explicitly: "Iran has not made a final decision on the agreement, and we will announce it once we reach a conclusion."

Baghaei also pointed out that "the main parts of the text are basically finalized, but the issue is that the US's contradictory stance constantly causes turbulence and disruption." According to journalists in Iran, as of the morning of June 12, responses from the Iran government regarding the agreement have only come from Baghaei, showcasing Tehran's cautious attitude.

Reports indicate the US and Iran are advancing peace agreement negotiations around the G7 summit timeframe. Multiple insiders say the signing ceremony will be held in Geneva, and the agreement will be dubbed the "Islamabad Declaration" to recognize Pakistan's key role in mediation, though Iranian sources say Vienna is also under consideration.

This round of negotiation progress comes after a rapid escalation in tensions. Earlier this week, Iran and the US resumed direct military confrontation, Gulf states were struck by Iran's ballistic missiles, and the US launched several Tomahawk missile strikes against Iran. Trump subsequently canceled the planned new round of strikes, which the outside world interpreted as a signal of substantial progress in negotiations.

Even if the memorandum of understanding is eventually signed, it only serves as a framework for both sides' return to the negotiating table, not a final peace agreement. Core issues, such as the nuclear issue, lifting sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction, will be left for the following 60-day negotiation period. Until these fundamental disagreements are resolved, market concerns about energy supply stability are expected to persist.

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