a16z Annual Heavyweight Report: OpenAI Struggles to Defend Its Turf, Google Goes All Out, Users Choose Only One

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Recently, top Silicon Valley venture capital firm a16z released its annual blockbuster report on the consumer AI market, pointing out that the current core competition lies in the general AI assistant track, where users tend to choose only one main product and a “winner-takes-all” pattern is rapidly taking shape.

The report shows that although AI usage rates have risen across the board, users are very reluctant to use multiple platforms. Even among ChatGPT’s weekly active users, less than 10% also use other AI services at the same time. Consumption data confirms this as well: among mainstream products, only about 9% of users pay to subscribe to multiple assistants.

While OpenAI still leads with 800-900 million weekly active users and its “super app” strategy, it is facing challenges; meanwhile, Google is rapidly catching up with its “experimental field” approach to Gemini, with desktop users increasing by 155% year-on-year and paid subscriptions growing nearly twice as fast as ChatGPT.

Titans Competing: A “Winner-Takes-All” Game?

The current AI assistant field faces a core question: given many choices, do users really use multiple chatbots at the same time? The report’s data reveals a compelling phenomenon—an overwhelming majority of users are actually deeply reliant on a single AI assistant.

In the past year, even among active ChatGPT users, less than 10% also used other large model services at the same time. Paid behavior further confirms this trend: for mainstream products, only about 9% of users subscribe to more than one service. This echoes the report’s prediction: “Although competition among large language models may not be strictly ‘winner takes all,’ it is highly likely to become ‘winner takes most.’”

To be specific, ChatGPT’s total weekly active users remain at 800-900 million, continuing its historic lead; Gemini’s user numbers on the web and mobile platforms are approximately 34% and 40% of ChatGPT’s, respectively. In terms of user stickiness, ChatGPT’s daily/monthly active user ratio is 36%, nearly twice that of Gemini (21%), reflecting a deeper user engagement.

However, the competitive landscape is undergoing profound changes. Gemini’s desktop users have grown 155% year-on-year, far exceeding ChatGPT’s 23%; its paid user growth is even more pronounced—Gemini Pro subscriptions have increased nearly 300% year-on-year, vastly outpacing ChatGPT’s 155% growth. The race has moved from the early-stage focus on user scale to a new phase of deepening user quality and commercial value. While ChatGPT enjoys a first-mover advantage, Google is striving to catch up with ongoing technological iteration and ecosystem integration. The key to future competition lies in who can more precisely grasp users’ real needs and translate them into sustainable business models.

OpenAI’s “Walled Garden” and Google’s “Experimental Field”

In terms of product strategy, OpenAI and Google have chosen different development paths.

OpenAI tends to build a centralized ecosystem, aiming to integrate all types of user AI needs into ChatGPT as the core application. Since this year, features such as Pulse daily updates, group chat, and shopping research have all been added within the existing product framework. While this strengthens user habits, it also increases interface complexity. The report notes that delivering an outstanding experience within the current architecture faces challenges. The only exception is the independently launched Sora, which has surpassed 12 million downloads, but user retention remains lower than mainstream consumer applications.

By contrast, Google has adopted a more decentralized exploration strategy. The company prefers to let innovative products develop independently, rather than integrating all functions into Gemini. NotebookLM is a representative case of this approach, continually growing since its launch last autumn, with mobile monthly active users now reaching 8 million. Google has also rolled out standalone apps like Portraits and Doppl; this “experimental field” model preserves clear experience boundaries for core products and allows room for trial and error in innovation. However, it also creates a more scattered product matrix and less clear user experience pathways.

Other Players: Differentiated Strategies to Break Through

In addition to the two giants OpenAI and Google, other players are carving out a niche with differentiated strategies.

Anthropic’s Claude is committed to a “pro-consumer” route, intensely focused on technical user groups. Its functions like Skills and Artifacts clearly target advanced use cases and stand out especially in document and slide generation, with test feedback suggesting they are “faster and more reliable than ChatGPT Agents.” Notably, its coding assistant Claude Code has achieved $1 billion in annualized revenue within six months, and is expected to get continued investment next year.

Perplexity also targets professional users, but focuses more on serving efficiency-oriented non-technical groups. Its core products—AI browser Comet and email assistant—have not gone viral but have accumulated over one million users and are praised as “the most popular AI browser.”

The dark horse with the most potential this year may be Musk’s xAI. Its product Grok started from zero and reached 38 million monthly active users by mid-December. This growth is attributed to its deep integration with the X platform and built advantage through distinct personality settings and rapid iteration: pioneering the launch of AI companions with animation effects, and quickly integrating text-to-video, image-to-video, and speech synthesis features. Industry observers note: “This may be the AI product with the fastest capability iteration currently.”

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```