Above $200! European diesel futures hit a new high since 2022, refined oil crisis intensifies

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Affected by the Middle East conflict, passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been obstructed, and the global fuel market is facing severe supply shocks.

European diesel futures jumped to their highest level since 2022 on Thursday. In London, intraday prices once reached $1,493.25 per ton, equivalent to more than $200 per barrel, a gain of 9.4%. With shipping through the Strait disrupted, circulation of diesel and other refined products has nearly ground to a halt, and some refineries have been forced to cut production due to restricted crude oil imports. Global traders are rushing to reallocate resources, and several diesel shipments have already been rerouted.

This tight supply situation has drawn widespread market attention. Many traders and analysts warn that if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored in the coming weeks, Europe will face a risk of diesel shortages, and regions such as Latin America are also expected to come under similar pressure.

Blockage at the Middle East's chokepoint brings Europe closer to diesel shortage

As one of the world's critical energy transportation corridors, the Strait of Hormuz has seen a sharp drop in passing vessels due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, with refined product shipping routes nearly closed. While circulation of diesel and other refined fuels is being blocked, tightening crude oil supply is also forcing refiners to actively reduce operating rates, further squeezing output of refined products.

To address the supply gap, global traders have begun reallocating diesel shipments originally destined for other regions, resulting in significantly longer transport distances, increased operating costs, and higher end-user prices.

Europe is a net importer of diesel, with domestic capacity long unable to meet consumption, making it heavily reliant on external supplies. Previously, refined oil product shipments from the Middle East were an important complement, but that channel has now almost been cut off.

Many traders and analysts note that if the Strait remains blocked, the European market may face an actual diesel shortage within weeks, with Latin America also suffering similar pressure. As diesel is a core fuel powering industry, logistics, and agriculture, rising prices could directly impact the real economy.

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