After 50,000 simulations, Goldman Sachs believes there is a 60% chance the World Cup champion will be one of these three teams.

```

Just days after the opening of the 2026 World Cup, Goldman Sachs has already updated its champion prediction model. Host country USA beat Paraguay 4:1, performing beyond expectations and becoming the biggest "dark horse" at the start of the tournament. Spain continues to top the list of favorites for the championship.

In its latest report, Goldman Sachs pointed out that, after including the opening match results and the latest changes in Elo ratings, its model based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations shows that Spain has a 24.7% probability of winning the championship, significantly ahead of traditional powerhouses such as France, Argentina, and Brazil.

The model has successfully predicted the performance of teams like Germany and Spain. Its core framework integrates team Elo ratings, player abilities, historical results, and tournament paths, using large-scale simulations to project outcomes.

However, upsets are never lacking in the World Cup. In 2022, Argentina was not the top favorite before the tournament but ultimately won the trophy; several highly regarded European giants were eliminated early. Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that each match will dynamically affect teams' Elo scores and qualification paths, and championship probabilities will be continually adjusted.

At present, Spain remains the team closest to lifting the trophy, and Team USA, thanks to a resounding opening win, has become one of the biggest surprises of this World Cup.

USA defeats Paraguay 4:1 in opening match, qualification probability rises, championship probability increases to 1.1%

The most notable variable in the opening match of this World Cup comes from host Team USA.

Goldman Sachs did not expect USA to achieve such a score before the match, but the team ultimately beat Paraguay 4:1. Forward Balogun scored twice and is the only USA player included in Goldman Sachs' model under the "individual scoring ability" variable. This match brought a net increase of 54 Elo points for Team USA.

The model immediately raised Team USA's subsequent qualification probabilities. Currently, USA has a 61.8% chance of reaching the last 16, 30.6% of reaching the quarter-finals, 3.3% of advancing to the final, and its championship probability has risen to 1.1%.

Spain, France, Argentina near 60% chance of winning; opening day performances unchanged

Although Team USA was the standout performer on the opening day, Goldman Sachs' model did not alter its fundamental view of the championship picture.

Data shows that Spain remains the top favorite for the World Cup championship with a probability of 24.7%; France is second with 17.4%; defending champion Argentina is third with 15.0%. Next are Brazil (7.9%), England (5.3%), Portugal (5.2%), Germany (5.1%), and the Netherlands (4.9%).

In other words, Goldman Sachs' model thinks there is nearly a 60% probability the championship will go to one of Spain, France, or Argentina. For chances of reaching the final, Spain stands at 36.4%, France at 27.4%, and Argentina at 27.6%, forming a clear first tier.

Asian teams hope to improve, North American home advantage stands out

Compared to previous World Cups, Goldman Sachs' model gives relatively positive expectations for Asian teams.

South Korea is seen as the most competitive Asian team with a 49.3% chance of reaching the last 16 and 0.2% chance of winning the championship; Iran’s chance of reaching the last 16 is 31.7%; Japan’s is 30.9%. However, in terms of championship chances, Asian teams still lag clearly behind European and South American powerhouses. Currently, no Asian team has a championship probability above 1%.

As the first World Cup co-hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, North American teams generally benefit from home advantage. Despite Canada being held to a draw by Bosnia in its opening match, it still has a 44.5% chance of reaching the last 16; after its opening win, USA further strengthened its prospects of qualifying.

Goldman Sachs believes that familiar environments, shorter travel distances, and home crowd support are becoming important advantages for North American teams.

Risk Alert and Disclaimer ClauseThe market has risks; investment needs caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it consider particular users’ unique investment goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article fits their specific situation. Investing based on this article is at your own risk. ```