After being banned for four years, Polymarket returns to the U.S. market, accelerating America's "everything is bettable."

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After being banned by U.S. regulators for nearly four years, the return of prediction market platform Polymarket marks a pivotal moment for this emerging industry.

Backed by up to $2 billion in investment commitments from its New York Stock Exchange operator, Polymarket is returning to the world's largest economy, planning to start with sports events and eventually expand into the vast domain where "everything" can be traded—something bound to intensify competition with traditional sports betting giants and spur the overall expansion of the prediction market industry.

According to the company's announcement on Wednesday, after nearly four years under the ban, Polymarket has formally returned to the United States. Since reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in January 2022, the platform had been barred from operating in the U.S. Now, its app has begun rolling out to users on a waitlist of over 200,000 people.

This comeback coincides with an unprecedented surge of attention toward prediction markets in the U.S. Before its official launch, Polymarket’s app had already ranked first among free sports apps in the Apple App Store. Its “sports first, then everything” strategy directly challenges rival Kalshi, with the potential to disrupt the businesses of traditional sports betting firms like DraftKings and Flutter. Sensing the pressure, these established giants are also planning to launch their own prediction market products.

Polymarket’s return is not an isolated incident, but rather happening in a capital-infused, fiercely competitive market environment. Two months ago, the company secured up to $2 billion in investment commitments from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the operator of the New York Stock Exchange. This deal provided substantial funding, and ICE will also distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data to offer customers sentiment indicators on market-related topics.

From Sports to Macro: Everything Is Tradable

Polymarket’s expansion path is clear: "sports first, then everything."

The platform will first launch sports event contracts, then add “markets on everything.” International users can already trade on things like whether U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will step down by March 31 of next year, or the closing price of gold in 2025.

In contrast, rival Kalshi’s November monthly trading volume of $5.8 billion was mainly driven by sports-related contracts, while Polymarket’s $3.7 billion was more heavily sourced from its strengths in macroeconomic and political markets.

However, this path of expansion is not without hurdles. Due to its similarity to sports betting, sports event contracts have long been controversial in the U.S., with regulation handled independently by each state. Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi has already faced several legal battles because of this.

According to Front Office Sports, whether Polymarket will face similar legal challenges in the future remains to be seen. Nevertheless, from sports to politics to macroeconomics, prediction markets are rapidly broadening their boundaries. As Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said, the industry is “replacing debate, subjectivity, and empty talk with markets, accuracy, and truth.”

Giants Betting Big: Capital Floods Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are becoming a new hotbed for capital, attracting massive investments from mainstream financial institutions. Polymarket is not the only platform to receive substantial financial backing. According to Stocktwits, main rival Kalshi announced on Tuesday that it had completed a $1 billion round of financing, bringing its valuation to $11 billion—its third funding event this year, and its valuation has more than doubled in just a few months.

This trend is also reflected in public markets. Online broker Robinhood has seen its stock price soar, up more than threefold since the launch of its prediction market hub in March in partnership with Kalshi.

Last month, the company also acquired a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, further deepening its strategy in the space. The influx of capital and endorsements from mainstream financial institutions are pushing prediction markets from fringe financial “bets” to widely accepted trading tools spanning sports, entertainment, and finance.

Traditional Sports Bookies Face Disruption

As Polymarket returns, America’s prediction market is no longer the empty track it was four years ago, with the field crowded by newcomers like PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig, and even Trump’s Truth Social platform. However, the biggest impact is on the traditional sports betting industry.

According to Stocktwits, industry giants like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (which owns FanDuel) are uneasy and have announced plans to launch their own prediction market products.

Although executives at these companies have said in interviews that sports betting and prediction markets are two distinct products that will not cannibalize users from one another, some new products (such as “same-game win streaks”) have already directly hit their core businesses.

When Polymarket and Kalshi signed an agreement with the National Hockey League (NHL), making it the first major U.S. sports league to license its trademark to a prediction market, DraftKings and Flutter saw their stock prices respond negatively. Recent financial reports also show sluggish sports betting revenues at both companies.

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