After Hormuz, is the US possibly "targeting" the Strait of Malacca?
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As tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States and Indonesia have signed a defense agreement, strengthening the presence of U.S. forces in the Strait of Malacca and sparking market concerns about the stability of another global key shipping channel.
According to the Global Times, citing India's New Delhi Television, Indonesia will grant the U.S. military greater airspace access, allowing the U.S. to enhance its control over the Strait of Malacca and even the Indian Ocean. Indian media worry that after the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. may turn its attention to the Strait of Malacca, which is closer to India, prompting India to urgently consolidate its military presence in the area.
Meanwhile, the future of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. According to CCTV News, citing Russian sources on the 16th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the collapse of the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S. According to Bloomberg, Gulf and European officials familiar with the negotiations said a formal peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take about six months, and both sides should extend the current ceasefire agreement to cover this negotiation period. Meanwhile, these officials warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen to traffic before next month, a global food crisis could ensue.
For commodity trade dependent on these two shipping channels, any decline in the stability of either route will directly impact energy, food, and industrial prices, with market risk pricing likely to continue adjusting.
U.S. Military Strengthens Presence in Malacca, Indian Media Deeply Concerned
According to a U.S. State Department announcement, U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth met Indonesian Defense Minister Shafri at the Pentagon on the 13th, and both parties signed the "Major Defense Cooperation Relationship Agreement". U.S. media reported that the United States is seeking greater access to Indonesian airspace, "even the right to fly over the entirety of Indonesian airspace," which is widely seen as an important move for Washington to strengthen oversight of the Strait of Malacca.
The Strait of Malacca is about 900 kilometers long, connecting the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea, bordered by Indonesia’s Sumatra Island and the Malay Peninsula. Over 40% of global cargo transport relies on this channel. In 2004, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore initiated the Malacca Strait Patrol, with Thailand joining later, to jointly maintain the security and accessibility of the channel. India has always sought to join this patrol group.
Indian media express concern over the U.S. military’s strengthening of its presence in the Strait of Malacca through the Indonesian agreement. According to Global Times citing New Delhi Television, as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is increasing pressure on Iran's maritime activities and extending its strategic focus east to Southeast Asia's Strait of Malacca. "The Strait of Malacca, as a potential strategic passage, will have enormous strategic influence in the future." The report indicates the U.S. is deepening its military presence in the Strait of Malacca through the defense pact with Indonesia. Against this backdrop, India's efforts to integrate into the channel's security system are not just strategic goals, but have become urgent necessities.
Strait of Hormuz: Stalled Negotiations, Blocked Energy Exports
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked since the outbreak of conflict, directly impacting the Gulf states’ economies, preventing the normal export of oil, liquefied natural gas, aluminum, and fertilizers. According to Xinhua, citing Reuters on the 13th, the U.S. military announced it would implement a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the eastern Arabian Sea of the Strait of Hormuz, and any unauthorized vessels entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, redirected, or detained.
No substantive breakthrough has been achieved in negotiations. Citing two Iranian sources, the media reported that talks held last weekend in Islamabad yielded no progress, with deep divisions remaining on key issues regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, Trump publicly stated on the 16th that the U.S. had obtained a "highly significant" statement to ensure Iran would not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years, and claimed "Iran has agreed to almost all requests," making the outlook for an agreement "very optimistic." However, according to CCTV News, Iran has not responded to this, and Iranian President Pezehzian also emphasized that due to repeated U.S. breaches, the Iranian people have "completely lost trust" in the United States. Affected by these developments, international crude oil prices dropped sharply in the short term, with WTI crude and Brent crude both down 2.0% for the day, reporting $92.78/barrel and $97.3/barrel, respectively.
Additionally, citing two Iranian sources, the media reported that the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations has undergone a substantive shift. Both sides have abandoned the goal of reaching a comprehensive peace agreement within the current ceasefire window, and are now seeking to sign a temporary memorandum to prevent the resumption of conflict after the two-week ceasefire expires.
Deep Disagreements, Short-Term Agreement Unlikely
According to Bloomberg, former British ambassador to Iran and Chatham House council member Rob Macaire stated: "There will not be an agreement between the U.S. and Iran in the short term. President Trump's optimism reflects his awareness of the market impact." He also pointed out, "The key is not only whether the negotiations succeed, but also whether both sides can do enough in the short term to prevent renewed conflict. It's not impossible, but it's a huge gamble."
According to Bloomberg, citing officials, the main disputes in negotiations cover several aspects: Iran insists on unlimited control of the Strait of Hormuz, the handling of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, arrangements for lifting sanctions on Iran, and the continuing armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.
Rob Macaire believes there is some negotiating space concerning the nuclear issue, with the direction being Iran committing to allow inspectors access within a fixed period and to cease uranium enrichment; economic concessions might include the U.S. unfreezing some Iranian assets and easing restrictions on oil trade; but the determination of control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's security guarantees will be much more difficult to negotiate than the nuclear issue.
The impasse in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, while the U.S., via its agreement with Indonesia, extends its strategic reach to the Strait of Malacca. Both shipping channels are under simultaneous pressure, and global commodity market risk pricing is likely to continue adjusting. After Hormuz, has the U.S. really "set its sights" on Malacca? Geopolitical games have clearly begun.
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