After listening to Musk's speech, analysts have raised the probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger to 90%.

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Tesla’s latest earnings call not only brought performance data, but also unexpectedly became a catalyst for the market to re-examine the potential prospects of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

During this Wednesday’s earnings call, Musk responded to the issue of the two companies merging, saying that their collaboration is deepening and that “there is more and more overlap.” Gene Munster, an analyst at Deepwater Asset Management, immediately raised his expected probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger from 80% to 90%, and predicted the merger would take place within the next few years.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s second-quarter revenue beat expectations, but per-share earnings were below expectations, and the stock fell more than 5% in after-hours trading as the market grew more cautious.

Musk Responds Directly to Merger Question for the First Time

Previously, speculation about a Tesla-Spacex merger remained mostly at the rumor level, with Musk rarely addressing the issue directly in public. In this earnings call, Musk was asked directly whether a merger between the two companies would make strategic sense. He did not shy away, instead elaborating on the growing collaboration between the two parties.

"As you can see from the many areas where SpaceX collaborates, there is more and more overlap, especially in the Terafab project, which will be a truly large-scale engineering project," Musk said. He also emphasized that the earnings call was not the right occasion to discuss potential deals and that any progress "must follow proper procedures," with related matters being referred to Tesla’s legal team for handling.

Gene Munster posted on X that he was surprised the Tesla management was willing to directly address the issue, which directly prompted him to raise his probability estimate. “Going into the call, I thought the probability of the two companies merging in the next few years was 80%; now I have raised that to 90%,” he wrote.

Business Integration Between the Two Companies Accelerates

During the call, Musk detailed numerous specific areas of collaboration, showing that the integration process has surpassed previous market expectations.

According to Musk, current cooperation covers multiple levels: Grok artificial intelligence has been integrated into Tesla vehicles; the digital Optimus robot project is moving forward; Starlink satellite internet will provide connectivity for Cybercab and future Tesla models, to address Robotaxi’s coverage issues in areas with weak cellular signals.

"We cannot let Robotaxi get stuck in the 'Bermuda Triangle' of these cellular blind spots," Musk said. The satellite connection solution is seen as key infrastructure for commercializing its autonomous mobility network.

Revenue Beats, Earnings Per Share Misses

Although the merger topic attracted broad market attention, Tesla’s quarterly results were mixed.

Tesla posted Q2 revenue of $28.24 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s estimate of $25.71 billion; 480,126 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, up 25% year-over-year, marking a record high. However, earnings per share were only $0.33, significantly below analysts' expectations of $0.50.

The earnings miss put clear pressure on the stock price. Tesla shares closed down 1.30% on Wednesday and slipped a further 4.13% after the earnings announcement. According to Benzinga's rating data, Tesla's momentum score is at the 36th percentile, while the growth score is at the 88th percentile.

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