After the trading hours on the day the ban was lifted, $1.9 billion emergency fundraising launched: MiniMax takes a discount share placement + zero-interest convertible bonds to kick off the "survival battle" for computing power

``` On July 9, the same night MiniMax’s share price plunged over 18% on the first day its restricted shares were unlocked, the company launched its largest refinancing since listing—a combination of a new share placement and zero-coupon convertible bonds, aiming to raise about $1.9 billion. This financing amount is nearly three times its January IPO’s net fundraising of $680 million. The sensitive timing and aggressive structure reveal the AI large-model company’s extreme thirst for capital in the compute power arms race. According to media reports, MiniMax plans to place 30 million new shares at a fixed price of HK$268 per share, about a 9.9% discount to the July 9 closing price of HK$297.4. Simultaneously, the 6.5 billion HKD zero-coupon convertible bonds will mature in 2027 with a 25% conversion premium, and pricing is expected to be finalized on July 10. Morgan Stanley and UBS are acting as arrangers for this transaction. Just hours before the refinancing plan was announced, MiniMax had just experienced its most brutal trading day since listing: 153 million restricted shares were unlocked—representing 48.9% of total share capital—expanding the tradable float from less than 6% to about 50%. Despite over 80% of shareholders publicly stating they would not sell, the share price fell from an opening HK$359.8 to a low of HK$290, closing down more than 18% with trading volume surging to six times its daily average. Launching large-scale refinancing before the full digestion of selling pressure underscores the company’s urgent need for funds outweighing concerns over short-term share price movements. $1.9 Billion: “Extreme Measures” with Dual-Channel Equity and Debt This financing adopts a mix of share placement and zero-coupon convertible bonds, reflecting the company’s tough balance between expanding capital reserves and controlling dilution costs. Issuing 30 million new shares at HK$268 each still involves nearly a 10% discount to the post-unlock slump’s closing price, directly increasing equity. The HK$6.5 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds bring current interest expense down to zero—a 25% conversion premium means bondholders will only opt to convert if the share price returns to over HK$371. For investors, this provides downside protection (zero-coupon to maturity) while retaining the upside potential if the share price recovers. By comparison, on July 8, Zhipu saw its shares rise nearly 13% on unlock day, then immediately placed 19.8 million H shares at a 7–13% discount, raising about HK$31.5 billion. Their pricing environment was markedly better than MiniMax—who launched its refinancing with a bigger discount on a day of share price collapse. Half-Year Financing Three Times IPO: Where Will All the Money Go? The most direct signal from this $1.9 billion financing is this: MiniMax’s capital burn rate since going public has far outpaced market expectations. The company’s January IPO and overallotment option raised a net $680 million. Only half a year later, the new round of financing is nearly triple the IPO amount. According to The Information, MiniMax is developing a next-generation large model M3 Pro with 2.7 trillion parameters, planning for an open-source release as early as Q3, while also aiming to build its first domestic compute cluster by the end of Q3. As model parameters leap from tens of billions to the trillions, training and inference compute costs rise exponentially. In an early July conference call, MiniMax management laid out a clear path for ARR growth: $100 million by the end of December 2025, $150 million by February 2026, and a further doubling by April, expressing full confidence in meeting the $1 billion ARR goal by the end of 2026. Management also emphasized in-house compute utilization above 90% and balancing costs with peak–trough scheduling. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating and set a 12-month target price of HK$860. However, an optimistic ARR narrative takes time to validate. Just about a week after its flagship M3 model launched on June 1, MiniMax announced a permanent 50% price cut, and JPMorgan promptly downgraded its rating from “Overweight” to “Neutral.” Unlock Pressure Remains; Refinancing as a Confidence Test July 9’s plunge on the first unlock day reminded the market: after the tradable float expanded from less than 6% to about 50%, MiniMax’s share price pricing power fundamentally changed. Although strategic shareholders such as Alibaba (holding about 13%) and miHoYo (about 5.24%) stated they would not reduce their stakes, market-oriented investors such as Hillhouse and Sequoia still face exit and performance pressure. This $1.9 billion refinancing is, on the one hand, a survival need—in the escalating compute arms race, whoever stockpiles enough ammunition first will gain the upper hand in the next model generation. On the other hand, it is a stress test for market confidence—in the aftermath of the unlocking-driven crash, whether investors are willing to take up new shares at a 9.9% discount and zero-coupon convertibles will directly test belief in MiniMax’s long-term growth narrative. Morgan Stanley and UBS’s endorsement as arrangers is certainly important, but ultimately, the success of this “extreme measure” will depend on whether the market believes M3 Pro will deliver as scheduled, and whether the $1 billion ARR target can be realized. Risk warning and disclaimer The market has risks; investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not considered the individual investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any users. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situations. You bear responsibility for investments made based on this information. ```