After the UAE exited, who is most likely to follow OPEC?
The UAE announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), putting renewed pressure on this historic oil cartel. Most energy market observers expect OPEC will not collapse in the short term, but analysts believe Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and Venezuela all have realistic motivations to follow suit, and the cartel's cohesion is facing a deep test.
Kazakhstan and Iraq have been cited by multiple analysts as the most likely oil producers to emulate the UAE. According to reports, Iraqi officials poured cold water on the idea on Tuesday, saying the country has no plans to withdraw. Kazakhstan’s situation is different—this OPEC+ member has long produced in excess, accumulating resistance to quota constraints, very much akin to the UAE’s previous predicament.
Analysts at energy research firm Rystad Energy noted in a research report that, due to continued obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical uncertainty, the short-term market impact of the UAE’s withdrawal may be relatively “limited,” but a “structurally weakened OPEC will find it increasingly difficult to regulate supply and stabilize oil prices.” Rapidan Energy Group president Bob McNally also warned that any erosion of OPEC+ discipline will “increase oil price volatility.”
This incident reflects OPEC’s deep-seated internal contradictions: members who have already expanded output on a large scale are increasingly unwilling to be constrained by production limits set to support oil prices. This contradiction also exists in countries like Kazakhstan and Nigeria, whose production capacity can still expand, and may be further highlighted as the UAE’s exit sets an example.
Kazakhstan: The most watched “potential outlier”
The UAE’s departure was not without signs. According to a previous article by Wallstreetcn, the UAE has long had disagreements with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, centered around the competition for production quotas and regional political influence. At various OPEC+ meetings, the UAE has repeatedly sought to deploy new capacity investments, but was blocked by Saudi Arabia, which insisted on production limits. This contradiction had often pushed Abu Dhabi to the brink of exit, and now they have finally acted.
Kpler chief oil analyst Matt Smith named Kazakhstan as a primary focus, noting that the country produced in excess substantially and continuously last year. “Kazakhstan may see the UAE’s exit as an opening for their own departure,” he said.
Kazakhstan is an OPEC+ member, allocated a production quota of 1.6 million barrels per day in May, with experts estimating its actual capacity only slightly higher. By comparison, the UAE’s constraints are far greater—most market estimates put its capacity at 4.7–4.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC’s quota for May was only about 3.5 million barrels. Antoine Halff, a researcher at Columbia University’s Global Energy Policy Center, indicated the UAE “has long been the most likely candidate to leave OPEC.”
Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, is operated by a joint venture: Chevron holds 50%, Exxon Mobil 25%, with local Kazakh firms and Russia’s Lukoil holding the rest. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth, believes Kazakhstan may not yet be ready to make the leap to exit. Halff further noted that after the UAE leaves, Kazakhstan’s voice within the organization might actually rise, so staying could be more advantageous.
Nigeria and Venezuela: “Exit” logic with their own calculations
Matt Smith of Kpler also listed Nigeria as a noteworthy “potential exit risk.” He analyzed that as the capacity of the Dangote refinery continues to rise, Africa’s largest oil producer is increasingly able to process crude domestically and earn higher added-value refined products profits, reducing its dependence on OPEC’s production limit in supporting international oil prices. “Nigeria is also in a position of not wanting to be constrained—it is becoming more self-sufficient,” Smith said:
“By directing domestic crude to Dangote, Nigeria’s dependence on global market dynamics is decreasing.”
Venezuela is likewise seen as a potential candidate by some market players. Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee, said that as Venezuela’s leadership shifts toward a more pro-US orientation, Caracas may seek greater autonomy in output, “Venezuela could be next, driven by leadership changes toward a more pro-American stance.” Kpler’s Smith noted that Venezuela’s oil production and exports have both grown faster than expected—in March this year, exports topped one million barrels per day for the first time since September last year.
Quota contradictions run deep, with multiple precedents for exits
The UAE is not the first member to leave OPEC. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted in media interviews that Qatar in 2019, Angola in 2024, and Ecuador previously all exited, with reasons related to dissatisfaction with the quota system or shifting national priorities.
“The UAE leaving OPEC is yet another chapter in the changing history of the organization’s membership,” Lipow said. He warned that if members abiding by quotas have accrued deep resentment toward countries persistently overproducing, it could trigger chain exits and eventually render OPEC meaningless as a cartel. “Those countries tired of seeing their peers continually cheat on quotas are all potential candidates to leave.”
OPEC has long suffered from compliance disparities, Iraq and Kazakhstan both have records of overproduction. Currently, Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and other members are exempt from quota constraints due to sanctions or internal conflict, further weakening the organization’s cohesion.
Resilience remains, but structural risks cannot be ignored
Despite significant pressure, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about OPEC’s core functions. Claudio Galimberti, Senior VP at Rystad Energy, believes the organization’s performance during crises like the Covid pandemic proves its resilience:
“In the past decade, OPEC+ has impressively maintained market balance. Without OPEC+, the Covid period would have seen extremely wild market volatility.”
Rebecca Babin likened OPEC to “the Fed of the oil market,” noting that since Saudi Arabia has more spare capacity, the UAE’s departure will have limited actual impact on OPEC’s overall effectiveness.
Halff pointed out that the current situation is rare in OPEC’s history—Iran has repeatedly attacked other members’ energy infrastructure, and the intensity of these internal conflicts has been unprecedented. Nonetheless, he remains cautious: “OPEC’s death has been declared many times, but it always survives.”
“This doesn’t mean the UAE’s exit—or any further departures—won’t have substantive consequences,” Halff added.
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