AI and Power, New Drug Development, China's Economic Recovery... A Comprehensive Guide to Goldman Sachs Research Team's Top 10 Investment Themes for 2026

At the beginning of 2026, the Goldman Sachs industry research team released its annual investment theme outlook, focusing on ten key areas ranging from AI infrastructure evolution to geopolitical uncertainty. These themes reflect the profound transformation underway in global markets and cover multiple dimensions including technological innovation, pharmaceutical breakthroughs, the reshaping of trade patterns, and energy structure adjustments.

According to Goldman Sachs, AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase. Traditional industry leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon have seen their stock prices stagnate since last summer, while newcomers like Broadcom are beginning to emerge. In the pharmaceutical sector, the weight-loss drug market is seeing a split; Eli Lilly continues to outperform the market, but Novo Nordisk’s stock has been cut in half by 2025, shifting market focus toward next year’s pending new drugs and a revival in cardiovascular treatments.

Goldman Sachs economists predict that China’s economic growth will exceed market consensus, with technological progress and export leadership as the main drivers. Meanwhile, the direction of Fed policy, Supreme Court rulings on Trump administration tariffs, and the appointment of a new Fed Chair will dominate market sentiment in the first half of 2026 due to policy uncertainty.

Notably, Goldman Sachs points out that US stock valuations have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s, and investors should remain prudent while seizing opportunities.

AI Infrastructure Deepening & Power Shortage Plays

The AI investment theme is undergoing a significant transformation. The stock prices of leading firms such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon that once performed steadily have stagnated since last summer, while new companies like Broadcom are making progress and AI “winners” such as Google are starting to stand out. Investors are now looking inside data centers, seeking companies that can support global computing power regardless of the chips used.

Memory makers like Micron Technology have seen their stocks soar, and connector companies such as Amphenol and TE Connectivity have also performed strongly.

The “power segment” of AI infrastructure is also transforming, with utility stocks’ gains stalled, but gas turbine suppliers like GE Vernova continue to rise. Companies like Quanta Services and EME, which can install such equipment, continue to benefit from market and onsite service scarcity.

Ryan Hammond noted in his November 18 report that the next phase of opportunities will involve companies increasing efficiency by adopting AI tools.

Shifting Focus in Pharmaceutical R&D

The transformation of the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is even more apparent. Eli Lilly’s stock continues to outperform, but Novo Nordisk’s 2025 stock price has lost nearly half its value. Dual pressure in price and volume has led the market to lower its 2026 EPS expectations by 33%.

Goldman analyst Corinne Johnson points out that the investment focus will shift to seeking new weight-loss products awaiting approval next year.

More importantly, the teams led by Asad Haider and Salveen Richter observe that with a large pipeline of new drugs and therapies nearing approval, biopharma’s focus is shifting from anti-obesity drugs to a “Cardiology Renaissance,” which may launch a major product cycle.

Retail Boundaries Growing More Blurred

The boundaries between offline sales, online commerce, and advertising are disappearing. Analysts Eric Sheridan and Kate McShane both emphasize this trend in their respective outlook reports.

Sheridan has long followed this blurring trend and remains optimistic about e-commerce platforms creating profitable revenue streams through advertising and marketing agreements.

McShane also notes that retailers are entering alternative revenue streams such as media, membership, and e-commerce, highlighting that delivery speed, value propositions, and agency commerce solutions will reshape industry dynamics next year.

China’s Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations

Goldman Sachs economists predict that China’s economic growth will exceed market consensus, with technological progress and sustained export leadership as driving factors—even under tariff conditions.

Economists Andrew Tilton, Hui Shan, and their team raised GDP growth forecasts in a report on October 31. The bank believes that the impact of China’s economic recovery on global trade and technological trends will be a focus for observation next year.

Productivity Drives Profit Growth

Goldman’s Chief Economist Hatzius and team point out that as technology-driven productivity boosting economic growth, next year may face the risk of a “jobless expansion.”

However, analyst Joseph Briggs notes that, given labor shrinkage caused by immigration restrictions, this productivity improvement is necessary. Over the long term, gains in productivity will be key to offsetting aging labor forces and declining birthrates.

Rise of Alternative Investments

In terms of investment channels, the private credit market is expected to outperform private equity in 2025 and continues to attract retail capital.

The cryptocurrency market is also expanding, with James Yaro noting that Coinbase and Robinhood hold advantageous positions in the expanding crypto, stablecoin, and prediction markets.

Evolving Militarization

The defense sector is experiencing “constantly evolving militarization.” Goldman Sachs notes in its report:

In the US, the Space Force is increasingly favoring innovators such as AVAV and RKLB, which have cultures centered around drone and satellite technology.

In Europe, catching up to Russia’s military capability may require up to $160 billion in investment for re-militarization over the next five years.

Humanoid Robots and Autonomous Driving

As technology advances, the hardware’s ability to simulate common activities continues to improve. Mark Delaney believes that the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving will drive profit growth for industrial tech companies, including Tesla.

After research, Jacqueline Du observes that China’s humanoid robot supply chain is actively reserving production capacity, awaiting actual order landings.

In addition, China is also leading in the autonomous vehicle sector. Allen Chang estimates that by 2035, China’s Robotaxi market will reach $47 billion.

Nuclear Renaissance & Rise of Rare Earths

Goldman Sachs notes that nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima stalled the industry for decades. But demand is driving a revival; the need to provide more (preferably “clean”) electricity for the AI revolution has brought nuclear energy back to the forefront.

Rare earth metals are also emerging as key technology components, a sector currently dominated by China. Brian Lee and Paul Young’s team point out that rare earths as key technology components present supply chain opportunities worth watching (such as MP).

Increasing Policy Uncertainty

Policy is always a critical theme, but moving into 2026, the impact of policy on markets may be greater than ever before.

On monetary policy, economist David Mericle points out that debates on the Fed’s next moves, who will lead the Fed, and broader implications for US monetary policy may dominate markets for at least the first half of the year.

Goldman traders are watching multiple potential market catalysts including: the Supreme Court’s expected ruling on the legality of Trump administration tariffs, Fed meetings in January and March, the appointment of a new Fed Chairman, the midterm elections in November, as well as the World Cup and Winter Olympics.

One thing investors need to remember is that current stock valuations have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks; investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ special investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.