AI boosts global stock markets; US stock index futures rise collectively; gold and silver surge amid Venezuelan turmoil; oil unexpectedly falls.
Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence has overshadowed market concerns about the situation in Venezuela, with global stock markets continuing their upward trend. Asian stocks performed exceptionally well, with Seoul’s composite index hitting a record high. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have led to rising risk aversion, pushing precious metals higher across the board, while crude oil unexpectedly fell due to a projected record surplus in global supply.
On January 5, US stock index futures collectively moved higher, European stocks opened sharply up, and Asian stock indices all rose. The US dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields fell, while Japanese government bonds came under pressure. Gold and silver rallied, crude oil declined, and cryptocurrencies moved higher.
Market analysts broadly believe that technology optimism driven by artificial intelligence remains the dominant force in the current market. Although geopolitical risks have temporarily disturbed safe-haven assets, the impact on overall risk appetite has been swiftly digested by the market. Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank, stated:
“Artificial intelligence remains the primary driving force in the market. Tech optimism continues to outweigh any other factors in the market.”
Pepperstone Group Ltd. strategist Dilin Wu said:
“Geopolitical noise dissipates quickly. The sudden escalation in Venezuela’s situation has not had a substantial impact on global risk assets, which further confirms the market’s tendency to briefly price in geopolitical shocks before rapidly absorbing them.”
Key market movements are as follows:
Dow futures up nearly 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, Nasdaq futures up over 0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.73%, UK FTSE 100 up 0.59%, France’s CAC40 up 0.63%, Germany’s DAX30 up 0.62%.
Nikkei 225 closed up 3% at 51,832.80; TOPIX closed up 2% at 3,477.52; Seoul’s composite index closed up 3.43% at 4,457.52, a record closing high. Samsung Electronics surged 7%.
10-year US Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.18%; 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 2.120%.
US Dollar Index up 0.2%; Euro down 0.2% to $1.1691; Yen depreciated against the dollar by 0.1% to ¥157.07.
Spot gold surged 2% on the day to $4,419.7/oz; spot silver up nearly 4% to $75.47/oz; Brent crude oil fell over 0.6%.
Bitcoin up 1.3% to $92,413.59; Ethereum up 0.3% to $3,153.53
US stock index futures rose together, with Nasdaq up over 0.4%. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson said that if the economic outlook remains strong, there may be room for moderately further rate cuts in late 2026, but this expectation is highly dependent on subsequent data developments.
Key economic data will also affect the direction in the coming week. In addition to the December employment report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release November figures on job openings, resignations, and layoffs on Wednesday. Surveys of manufacturers and service providers conducted by the Institute for Supply Management for December will also offer clues about employment in these sectors.
This weekend, the US government will announce housing starts for October, and the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment index for January.
Korean stocks opened high and continued higher, with Seoul’s composite index closing up 3.43% and setting a record closing high. Heavyweight stock Samsung Electronics surged by nearly 7.5% to a new all-time high, SK Hynix also strengthened, up nearly 3%. The strong performance of these two memory giants directly boosted market sentiment.
According to Wallstreetcn, the key logic supporting this market round is the severe volatility in memory chip prices. At the same time, the competition for production capacity surrounding high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has entered a white-hot stage.
Additionally, TSMC announced its 2nm process will enter mass production as scheduled, further boosting market sentiment. Analysts widely believe the AI boom will continue until 2026. Institutions like Morgan Stanley have significantly raised their expectations for memory prices, with Asian tech stocks benefiting from strong industry fundamentals and continued capital inflows.
According to Wallstreetcn, Japanese government bonds have come under selling pressure amid concerns about fiscal expansion and intensifying inflation, with long-term bond yields rising significantly. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield at one point rose 5 basis points to 2.12%, the highest level since 1999.
The US raid on Venezuela has sparked geopolitical shockwaves, boosting safe-haven sentiment and pushing gold prices back above $4,400, with spot silver up nearly 4% to close to $76/oz. Platinum and palladium also rose in tandem, with NY platinum up more than 4%.
Market observers pointed out that in the early stages of geopolitical crises, capital often immediately exits risk assets and reallocates into safe-haven precious metals. US Secretary of State Rubio's dialogue on leveraging US oil influence to force Venezuela into change has further heightened market concerns over the complexity of the regional situation, thereby supporting gold prices.
Crude oil, however, did not follow the traditional "war premium" logic. Global crude supply is set to reach a record surplus, with Venezuela's output constituting less than 1% and too insignificant to sway the overall landscape, leading to Brent crude falling over 0.6%.
According to Wallstreetcn, the Trump administration plans to revive Venezuela’s oil industry, but rebuilding the nation’s oil infrastructure and restoring its output to peak levels would require an investment of about $10 billion annually over the next decade and potentially exceed a total cost of $100 billion.
According to media reports citing sources familiar with the matter, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was not affected by the waves of US attacks launched in Caracas and other states. They said key facilities, including Jose Port, the Amuay refinery, and the Orinoco oil fields, continue operating normally.
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