AI computing power surges drive tens of billions in demand, confirming the turning point for semiconductor silicon wafer price increases.

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The global semiconductor silicon wafer industry has officially entered an upward cycle with both volume and price rising. Driven by the accelerated commercial deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) large models and the aggressive expansion of major global wafer fabs, the semiconductor silicon wafer market is emerging from a two-year inventory adjustment period, and the turning point for price increases has been clearly confirmed.

Since 2026, the three global silicon wafer giants—Shin-Etsu Chemical, SUMCO, and GlobalWafers—have simultaneously raised the prices of 12-inch silicon wafers, with price increases for wafers dedicated to AI and high-performance computing being particularly remarkable. Analyst Hua Xiaowei from Guosheng Securities pointed out in the latest research report that this round of price hikes is driven by three factors: demand growth, supply constraints, and rising costs, and is not a short-term disturbance. SUMCO forecasts that by 2026, AI will require 1 million advanced process silicon wafers per month, accounting for more than 10% of global 12-inch silicon wafer demand.

From the industry as a whole, in 2025 the global shipment area of silicon wafers will grow by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.973 billion square inches, while sales revenue will drop slightly by 1.2% year-on-year, showing a structural recovery characterized by "volume up, price down." The opening of the price uptrend channel in 2026 marks the industry's transition from mere shipment recovery to a stage of volume and price resonance. According to SEMI forecasts, the global semiconductor silicon wafer market is expected to surpass $20 billion by 2030.

Meanwhile, with international oligopolies facing capacity constraints and prices rising overall, Chinese domestic silicon wafer companies are ushering in a window period for accelerated market share expansion. SEMI predicts that by 2028, 108 new wafer fabs will be built globally, of which China will account for 47. China's share of capacity in mainstream process nodes (22-40nm) will rise from 25% in 2024 to 42% in 2028. This wave of expansion will continuously unleash rigid demand for domestic silicon wafers, creating broad market space for Chinese silicon wafer enterprises.

Multi-dimensional Resonance of Supply and Demand: Silicon Wafer Prices Enter Uptrend

This round of silicon wafer price increase is not driven by a single factor, but is the result of synchronous pressure from demand, supply, and cost.

On the demand side, the accelerated commercial adoption of AI large models has led to high growth in demand for high-end chips. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, expanding demand for automotive-grade chips. The capital expenditure for major global wafer fabs is at a historic high, directly boosting upstream silicon wafer purchases.

On the supply side, the silicon wafer expansion cycle is lengthy: it takes 18 to 24 months from equipment procurement to capacity ramp-up, and technological barriers are extremely high. Adding to this is the high degree of market monopoly by international oligopolies such as Shin-Etsu Chemical, SUMCO, and GlobalWafers, making it difficult for supplies to quickly respond to growing demand in the short term and creating a supply-demand gap.

On the cost side, energy and labor costs are rising across the board, disruptions in petrochemical raw material supplies from the Middle East are further pushing up production costs, providing extra support for price increases. With these three factors combined, silicon wafer manufacturers have sufficient motivation and space to raise prices.

Artificial intelligence is the core driving force behind this round of silicon wafer market recovery. SUMCO forecasts that AI-related applications will push monthly demand for advanced process silicon wafers above 1 million by 2026, accounting for more than 10% of global 12-inch silicon wafer demand. This figure indicates that the demand for AI computing power has evolved from marginal incremental growth to a core variable affecting the overall supply-demand balance.

Large-scale Wafer Fab Expansion Releases Rigid Demand

The security of the semiconductor supply chain is increasingly valued by countries, and tightening export controls on technology are accelerating the process for Chinese chip manufacturing companies to certify domestic suppliers. The Guosheng Securities report points out that domestic substitution is evolving from "single breakthroughs" to "comprehensive blossoming."

SEMI predicts that by 2028, among 108 new global wafer fabs, China will account for 47, and China's capacity share in mainstream process nodes (22-40nm) will increase sharply from 25% in 2024 to 42% in 2028. Once the strict certification systems of wafer fabs are passed, they foster strong customer stickiness. Domestic silicon wafer companies, leveraging their geographical advantages and rapid response capability, are expected to continuously expand their market share.

Leading Enterprises Break Technical Barriers, Release Significant Earnings Elasticity

With the global semiconductor industry entering the "post-Moore era," the acceleration of 2nm mass production and the widespread adoption of GAA architecture have raised the bar for single crystal quality and defect density in silicon wafers. Some leading Chinese enterprises, relying on deep technology accumulation and forward-looking capacity deployment, have overcome core technical thresholds and are deeply bonded with major global wafer fabs, accelerating their earnings elasticity.

LeAn Micro, as the domestic leader in heavy-doping, will account for about 3.68% of global full-size silicon wafer shipments in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the company’s 12-inch silicon wafer revenue surged by 88.12% year-on-year, and gross margin rebounded significantly. Currently, its silicon wafer business is fully booked, heavy-doped silicon epitaxial wafer products are sold out at full production, and delivery times for 8-12 inch low-resistivity silicon epitaxial wafers have lengthened.

Xian Yicai focuses on the 12-inch silicon wafer segment and has achieved complete process control independently. By the end of 2025, its monthly capacity for 12-inch silicon wafers exceeded 850,000, with a global market share of about 6.8%, ranking first domestically and sixth globally. It steadily supplies large batches to well-known global companies such as TSMC and Micron. By the end of 2026, its capacity is expected to further expand to about 1.2 million wafers per month.

In addition, domestic leader Silicon Industry Group has fully broken through key technologies such as near-perfect 300mm single crystal growth. In 2025, the company developed 168 new 300mm products, with clients covering SMIC, TSMC, UMC, and other leading global firms. The company is also leveraging its subsidiary Okmetic to focus on the high-end niche market, accelerating its strategic transformation from "domestic leader" to "global participant."

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