AI Duo Race for IPO: Anthropic Leads in Filing, But Reaching the Finish Line First Doesn’t Guarantee Victory

Running first doesn't necessarily mean winning first, but in this hundred-billion-dollar IPO race, no one dares to slow down.

Anthropic has recently officially submitted IPO application documents, taking the lead in its listing competition with OpenAI.

Both companies have already hired law firms to draft prospectuses and are working with banks and investor relations firms. As early as this fall, both companies may be listed. If each sells at least 5% of its shares, based on the latest valuation, the combined IPO fundraising amount will reach about $100 billion.

Jeff Bernstein, capital markets advisor at Riveron, directly pointed out the logic of this race: "This is a competition for capital." He believes Anthropic executives might be thinking: "If they go out first, they'll take away a lot of available IPO funds. It's a strategic move, because for both companies, money is everything."

Anthropic Has Surpassed OpenAI in Multiple Dimensions

Anthropic's IPO application is a continuation of its recent series of turnarounds.

In terms of revenue, Anthropic, relying on its products Claude Code and Claude Cowork, has already surpassed OpenAI in revenue earlier this year. Last week, Anthropic disclosed its annualized revenue has exceeded $47 billion; OpenAI’s annualized revenue is more than $30 billion, but has yet to release the latest figures.

In terms of valuation, Anthropic's pre-round valuation reached $90 billion, surpassing OpenAI for the first time—OpenAI’s valuation at the end of March this year was $73 billion.

Public market investors say they prefer Anthropic's business model which focuses on enterprise customers. However, OpenAI is also catching up: its programming agent Codex has just reached 5 million weekly active users.

Listing First ≠ Winning First: Historical Answers

Does listing first really confer an advantage? Historical cases provide no clear answer.

The most typical comparison is Lyft and Uber. In December 2018, both companies secretly submitted IPO applications in the same week. Lyft went public first at the end of March 2019, raising $2.3 billion at a valuation of about $24 billion; two months later, Uber listed, raising $8.1 billion with a valuation over $80 billion.

What was the outcome? A year after listing, Lyft’s share price fell about 66% from its issue price, Uber’s fell about 30% over the same period. Lyft, which went first, fell harder.

Later that year, the enterprise application monitoring software sector saw a similar race. Dynatrace went public before Datadog, but a year later, Datadog's stock tripled, while Dynatrace only doubled.

The 2021 crypto and retail trading track is also worth noting: Coinbase debuted on the market with a direct listing, reaching a market cap of $100 billion at its peak, but a year later, dragged down by the crypto market crash, its stock price dropped more than 30%; Robinhood, which listed three months later, performed even worse, falling more than 70%.

"Second Place Should Be the One to Rush Forward"

Although historical data does not support the conclusion "going public first is always better," IPO advisors still tend to recommend rushing to be first.

Jeff Bernstein's logic is direct: "If you are second, I always advise you to go public first. Otherwise, you have to prove to investors you are better than the company that listed first, or at least not worse."

This logic is confirmed by Lyft. When Lyft went public, its size was much smaller than Uber—its business only covered North American cities, its revenue about one-fifth of Uber's, and Uber's valuation had reached $76 billion, five times that of Lyft.

OpenAI and Anthropic’s situation now is quite similar to Uber and Lyft back then: one is larger and more famous, while the other has caught up in certain aspects. OpenAI ignited the current AI boom with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, and has long been considered the leader of the industry; Anthropic is the rising star, and has now overtaken in revenue and valuation.

OpenAI, meanwhile, has been working with banks on IPO preparations, but has not yet submitted its application documents. According to insiders, the company is not in a hurry to file.

Even though both companies have started their listing processes, whether they can successfully go public ultimately depends on multiple factors: investor reaction to a large SpaceX IPO, global macroeconomic trends, and their own financial health.

Uncertainties in revenue growth and rising computing power costs may keep investors cautious. The finish line of this race is much harder to predict than the starting line.

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