AI giants line up to go public—will this be the “last hurrah” for U.S. stocks?

An IPO feast comparable to the peak of the dot-com bubble is taking shape. OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX—the three AI giants—are racing to enter the public market, each targeting a trillion-dollar valuation, with a combined scale sufficient to reshape the landscape of U.S. stocks. This unprecedented wave of listings is not only the ultimate stress test for AI investment logic, but also set to become the biggest variable in this year’s direction of risk assets.

On May 22, according to a Wallstreetcn report, OpenAI is preparing to secretly submit its IPO application to regulators, with a possible listing as soon as September this year, targeting a valuation of over $1 trillion and aiming to raise about $60 billion, which would more than double the $25.6 billion IPO record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.

Meanwhile, competitor Anthropic is also advancing its own IPO plans and has revealed that second-quarter revenue is expected to double quarter-over-quarter to $10.9 billion, with the prospect of achieving operating profitability for the first time. In a research report, Deutsche Bank noted that the manner in which these two IPOs are executed "is very likely to become a major shifting factor in this year's direction of risk assets," making it a macro topic that must be closely watched.

However, behind the dazzling valuations, the financial fundamentals of the two companies are completely different. OpenAI posted first-quarter revenue of $5.7 billion, but its adjusted operating profit margin was -122%—it loses $1.22 for every $1 in revenue—and it is expected to achieve positive cash flow no sooner than 2029 or 2030. Anthropic had revenue of $4.8 billion for the same period, is projected to leap to $10.9 billion in Q2, and expects to achieve about $559 million in operating profit, hitting the profitability threshold ahead of OpenAI.

Analysts point out that the two companies are competing on the same stage but demonstrate entirely different business logics, posing a rare choice for public market investors.

The Biggest IPO Ever: How Shocking Are the Numbers

Deutsche Bank's research indicates that regardless of whether it's OpenAI or Anthropic, each IPO will exceed twice the fundraising amount of Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO. Even adjusted for inflation, they will easily become the largest IPOs in history.

In another report, Deutsche Bank stated that if OpenAI achieves a valuation over $1 trillion, it will become the world’s 14th largest company by market capitalization, just behind Berkshire Hathaway and surpassing Eli Lilly.

By comparison, Berkshire’s revenue last year exceeded $370 billion, with net profits of $67 billion; Eli Lilly’s sales topped $65 billion, with profits of $21 billion. OpenAI is not yet profitable, with annualized revenue around $30 billion and only a few thousand employees.

From a market capacity perspective, Deutsche Bank believes that the current total U.S. stock market capitalization is about $70 trillion, five times the peak of the dot-com bubble. The market’s absorption capacity is far stronger than the late 1990s.

At that time, nearly 500 companies went public each year, while this decade averages only around 120 IPOs, with listed companies generally much more mature now.

Additionally, a single $60 billion IPO is just slightly below the total annual U.S. IPO fundraising in 1999 and 2000 (both around $65 billion), and about half of the record-setting $119 billion raised in 2021.

The "Siphoning Effect" of Giants and Massive Moves by Passive Funds

As these giants move toward the public market, their siphoning effect on U.S. market liquidity has attracted high alert on Wall Street.

The cluster listing of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, coupled with Nasdaq’s newly introduced “fast inclusion” mechanism, is stirring up an unprecedented massive repositioning among passive funds—the siphoning effect of AI giants.

According to a Wallstreetcn article, JPMorgan estimates that if SpaceX achieves its target $2 trillion valuation and 50% of shares are ultimately tradable, passive funds will have to sell about $95 billion of positions in Wall Street’s eight existing tech giants (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla) to make room.

Strategas Chief ETF Strategist Todd Sohn noted that since IPOs typically float only about 5% of shares at first, while ETFs track trillions in assets, this extreme supply-demand imbalance will make the index inclusion process “a bit crazy” and force passive investors to buy in at high prices.

Syz Group Head of Trading Valérie Noël commented that the market has already begun to wager that current large-cap stocks will come under pressure and decline.

According to information disclosed on March 28 of this year, OpenAI’s public listing will be a substantive referendum on the entire AI investment logic. The information reveals OpenAI's revenue will reach $13.1 billion in 2025, but net loss is expected to reach $14 billion in 2026.

OpenAI has also committed about $1.4 trillion in infrastructure investment by 2033. If S&P Global, FTSE Russell, and Nasdaq adopt fast-tracking rules, it may immediately force passive funds to buy about $24 to $48 billion worth of shares after listing.

Faced with such enormous capital restructuring, ordinary investors, whether active or passive, will see their portfolios reshaped by changing rules.

Deutsche Bank’s report points out that the manner in which these IPOs are executed will be a major shifting factor in this year’s risk asset direction. PitchBook’s analysis is even more blunt:

The private market has shown a "systemic quality inversion"—the highest-valued companies score the lowest on the true business quality metrics used for public market pricing.

For ordinary investors holding index funds or ETFs, it is hard to stay out of this game: regardless of whether they act proactively, their portfolios will be passively reshaped alongside changing index rules.

For active investors, once the S-1 filings are public and all financial secrets are laid bare, the market faces a clear choice: Believe in a company that has already found a profitable model, or a giant asking the market for several more years and hundreds of billions to explore the possibility of profit?

The answer will determine whether this frenzy is the start of a new cycle, or the last dance before the feast ends.

Two Extremes: Anthropic Profits and OpenAI Massive Losses

Despite surging valuations for both, the financial profiles of these leading AI companies are sharply contrasting. Anthropic has already begun turning a profit, breaking the conventional wisdom that heavy AI spending must dampen short-term profitability.

According to Wallstreetcn, reporting Wednesday local time via The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic’s second quarter revenue is expected to more than double, reaching $10.9 billion and about $559 million in operating profit.

Anthropic’s gross margin has soared from 38% to over 70%. CEO Dario Amodei even joked that revenue growth is becoming "too hard to handle."

The company’s success is mainly attributed to explosive demand for its programming tools from enterprise clients—about 85% of its revenue comes from enterprises and developer customers, a model with clear willingness to pay and lower service costs.

By contrast, OpenAI is still losing money.

According to Wallstreetcn, data shows OpenAI's first quarter revenue was $5.7 billion, but adjusted operating margin was -122%, i.e., losing $1.22 for every $1 earned.

About 85% of OpenAI’s revenue is tied to ChatGPT consumer subscriptions. Despite having 55 million paying users and over 900 million weekly active users, the massive pool of free users creates a huge inference-cost black hole.

OpenAI expects positive cash flow only in 2029 or 2030. CEO Sam Altman and CEO of applied business Fidji Simo are trying to shift focus to commercial clients who generate direct revenue.

On the IPO narrative level, the two companies tell completely different stories. Anthropic holds verified quarterly profitability; its story parallels Salesforce or ServiceNow—it’s the logic of an enterprise software company.

OpenAI must convince the market that AI agents, image generation, and even advertising will eventually turn massive consumer traffic into profits.

According to Sam Altman’s plan, by 2030 ChatGPT’s advertising business might bring in about $102 billion in revenue. But this takes time, and time is the scarcest resource for OpenAI as it trades losses for growth.

AI Giants Cluster IPOs—Is the "Hot Potato" Being Handed to Retail Investors?

According to Wallstreetcn, Panmure Liberum Managing Director Joachim Klement sees this AI giant IPO wave as essentially a “risk transfer”—a massive handover of early-stage investment risk to retail investors, pension funds, and other institutions so early investors can cash out.

He believes that OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are accelerating their IPOs while investor sentiment is high to cash out at high valuations before hype fades. Early institutional investors can exit at full value, while incoming retail and pension investors will face the risk of financial logic eventually returning to reality.

He bluntly characterizes this process as "a massive transfer of investment risk from current holders to those willing to pay for the story."

Klement references Greenspan’s 1996 “irrational exuberance” warning—three years before the bubble burst. He predicts AI hype may last through 2026, and super-large cloud providers are unlikely to cut investment soon. But “impossible math” will ultimately return to reality, "perhaps not in 2026, but maybe in 2027 or 2028."

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