AI platform competition is quietly shifting: Claude’s monthly traffic surges by 63%, but Google's moat remains unfathomable.
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Generative AI’s traffic competition became more distinctly segmented in February: Claude saw significant growth driven by functional updates, Gemini maintained steady growth, but Google still holds an advantage in user scale and search market share.
According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Bank of America published a report on March 6th, “Claude Performs Strongly, Gemini Continues to Grow.” Based on Similarweb data, the report highlighted that in February Claude’s global average daily web visits increased by 63% month-on-month, significantly outpacing Gemini’s 17% and ChatGPT’s 7%, while Google’s web visits rose by 4% month-on-month.
Mobile penetration is also accelerating. Based on Sensor Tower data, in February Claude’s global mobile daily active users (DAU) jumped 54% month-on-month to 4.2 million. Gemini’s DAU rose 12% to 82 million, ChatGPT’s DAU increased by 4% to 440 million, demonstrating that AI capabilities continue to drive incremental usage.
As competition intensifies, Statcounter data shows Google’s global search share rose 14 basis points month-on-month in February to 90.0%. BofA Securities believes that AI is driving more complex and longer query flows and expanding search opportunities, maintaining a Buy rating for Alphabet with a $370 target price.
Web: Claude Led February Growth
Similarweb data shows that in February, all major global AI platforms’ web average daily visits achieved varying degrees of month-on-month growth.
Google leads far ahead with 290 million average daily web visits, up 6% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month; ChatGPT had 197 million daily visits, up 42% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month; Gemini’s daily visits reached 79 million, up 667% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month.
Claude’s performance stands out. Its global average daily web visits reached 11 million in February, up 308% year-on-year and 63% month-on-month.
The US market shows a similar pattern: Claude’s US average daily visits hit 3.3 million, up 353% year-on-year and 67% month-on-month. BofA Securities attributes this explosive growth to the new Claude Code feature and model upgrades launched in February.
Comparing emerging AI platforms, Grok, Perplexity.ai, and Claude.ai are relatively ahead in web traffic rankings. Globally in February, Perplexity.ai’s average daily visits were about 6 million, up 44% year-on-year. Grok’s daily visits reached about 11 million, up 9% month-on-month.
Notably, the combined web traffic from all these emerging AI platforms is still less than 1% of Google’s daily web visits, showing a significantly large scale gap.
Mobile: Gemini and Claude Show Strong Growth
Mobile data confirms these trends. According to Sensor Tower, in February, ChatGPT led major AI platforms' global mobile DAU with 440 million, up 193% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. Gemini’s DAU reached 82 million, up 328% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, a net increase of 9 million in a single month.
Claude's growth on mobile is also eye-catching. Its global mobile DAU reached 4.2 million in February, up 407% year-on-year and 54% month-on-month, a net increase of 1.4 million in one month.
In the US market, Claude's mobile DAU reached 1.3 million, up 394% year-on-year and 52% month-on-month. In comparison, Grok's mobile DAU was 12 million, up 3% month-on-month; Perplexity’s global mobile DAU was around 9 million, up 191% year-on-year.
Despite impressive growth rates, Claude and Perplexity’s absolute DAU volume still cannot compare to ChatGPT and Gemini. Google itself has a global mobile DAU of 2.2 billion, up 12% year-on-year, demonstrating its unmatched scale advantage.
Search Share: Google Holds Steady, Bing Quietly Gains
In terms of search market share, Statcounter data shows Google’s global search share rose 14 basis points month-on-month in February to 90.0%, but is down 14 basis points year-on-year. Bing’s share rose 55 basis points month-on-month and 103 basis points year-on-year to 5.0%, continuing its upward trend.
Regional data shows segmentation. In the US market, Google’s search share rose 26 basis points month-on-month to 84.2%, but is down 311 basis points year-on-year; Bing’s US share rose 57 basis points month-on-month and 300 basis points year-on-year to 10.5%, showing obvious gains.
Device-wise, Google’s advantage is more pronounced on mobile. In February, its global mobile search share increased by 82 basis points year-on-year to 95.2%. On desktop, it grew by 305 basis points year-on-year to 83.0%. US desktop Google share increased by 181 basis points year-on-year to 77.4%, while Bing's US desktop share declined by 77 basis points to 16.7% year-on-year.
Investment Logic: AI-Driven Search Expansion, Alphabet Maintains Buy
BofA maintains its Buy rating on Alphabet, with a target price of $370, based on 27x the 2027 expected core Google GAAP EPS plus per share cash valuation.
The report points out that Alphabet is in a favorable long-term competitive position, with core logic as follows:
1) AI Drives Search Usage Expansion: Ongoing user growth and strong Q4 search performance indicate AI is spawning a new cycle of expansive search usage, with queries becoming more complex and longer, overall search opportunities are expanding rather than being replaced.
2) Improved Search Monetization Potential: AI integration is expected to help monetize search by improving intent understanding and increasing the monetization rate of zero-click queries (still in a neutral stage at present); agentic capabilities may also significantly enhance effectiveness measurement.
3) Valuation is relatively reasonable: The current share price (about $300) is 24x the expected 2027 GAAP EPS, compared to the S&P 500 at about 20x, with a premium within acceptable range.
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