AI training triggers a cooling revolution? Goldman Sachs: Liquid cooling will fully surpass air cooling next year, with annual compound growth exceeding 100%!

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According to information from the Chasewinds Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report points out that the global server cooling market is embracing structural growth opportunities. With the upward revision of AI server shipment expectations and the rapid increase in liquid cooling penetration rate, it is expected that the global server cooling market size will grow by 111%/77%/26% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, reaching $17.6 billion in 2027.

Among them, the AI training server cooling market is growing most rapidly, projected to expand from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $12.4 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 101%.

Accelerated Liquid Cooling Penetration: AI Training Servers Leading the Transformation

Goldman Sachs has updated its liquid cooling penetration model, forecasting that the liquid cooling penetration rate for AI training servers will leap from 15% in 2024 to 80% in 2027.

Specifically, the penetration trajectories for different market segments from 2024 to 2027 show clear divergence: AI training servers (15%/45%/74%/80%), AI inference servers (1%/15%/17%/20%), general/HPC servers (0%/4%/6%/8%).

Full-rack AI training servers have already achieved 100% liquid cooling penetration, acting as the early driving force in the market. The core drivers of accelerated penetration include: continuous enhancement of GPU/ASIC computing power, AI server rack design density increasing from 144 GPU chips per rack to 576, and the growing prominence of data center energy consumption issues.

Compared to traditional air cooling, liquid cooling technology not only offers higher efficiency, but also significantly increases the cooling value per server, further expanding overall market size.

Market Size Expectations Raised, Liquid Cooling Fuels Explosive Growth

Goldman Sachs has raised its global server cooling market size forecasts for 2025/2026 by 9%/16%, to $7.9 billion and $14 billion respectively, and has for the first time introduced a 2027 forecast of $17.6 billion.

This revision mainly reflects higher expectations for the number of high-power AI servers, which are increasingly adopting liquid cooling technology.

The main growth momentum in the market comes from liquid cooling, with its market size expected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $15.2 billion in 2027, while the air cooling market will remain relatively stable over the same period ($2.6/$2.5/$2.4/$2.4 billion).

Looking at the growth rhythm, the market is expected to peak in growth rate in 2025 (111%), then gradually decline to 26% by 2027, but still maintain strong growth momentum.

Clear Segmentation: AI Training Servers Dominate

The cooling market for AI training servers shows extremely strong growth momentum, with its size projected to expand rapidly from $4.5 billion in 2025 to $12.4 billion in 2027, and triple-digit growth in 2025 and 2026.

By contrast, the cooling market for general/HPC and AI inference servers is growing more moderately, with expected market size rising steadily from $3.4 billion in 2025 to $5.1 billion in 2027, with growth rates stabilizing around 23% in 2026-2027.

The penetration speed of liquid cooling in the AI training server market far exceeds other sub-segments, and the expected 80% penetration rate in 2027 highlights the certainty of this technology path. Cooling solution providers need stronger customization abilities, rapid design change response capabilities, and ample production capacity to support new product launches.

Among sub-components, core liquid cooling parts such as cold plates, manifolds, CDU/RPU are seeing the most significant growth, while traditional components like 3D VC and heat sinks are growing relatively steadily.

Innovative Designs Boost Heat Dissipation Efficiency, Leading Suppliers Must Strengthen Customization

Currently, cold plates have become the mainstream liquid cooling component, but in response to the ongoing heat dissipation needs of AI servers, the industry is introducing various innovative cooling designs, including:

1. 3D Printed Cold Plates: Wiwyn launched double-sided cold plates (thermal capacity 4kW) and two-phase cold plates at the OCP Global Summit, both using 3D printing technology with integrated microchannels to improve heat exchange efficiency;
2. Microchannel Covers: Jentech (3653.TWO, not covered) developed microchannel covers that can directly draw heat from the chip packaging;
3. Microfluidic Solutions: Microsoft introduced microfluidic technology, etching channels on the back of chips to allow coolant to directly flow over the chip surface.

Goldman Sachs points out that these innovative designs will improve both the quantity and value of cooling components, but also set higher requirements for suppliers—to possess stronger customization capability, faster response to design adjustments, and sufficient production capacity to support new product implementations.

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The above highlights are from Chasewinds Trading Desk.

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