Almost "overtook Nvidia"! Google is just one step away from becoming the world's most valuable company.

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Alphabet is rapidly closing in on Nvidia, just one step away from claiming the top spot for global market capitalization. In less than a year, this Google parent company has transformed from an "AI outsider" to an "AI overall winner," and its strong stock performance is reshaping the market cap landscape among tech giants.

As of last Friday’s market close, Alphabet’s market capitalization reached $4.8 trillion, while Nvidia rose to $5.2 trillion after three days of rebound this week, narrowing the gap significantly between the two.

Over the past six months, Alphabet’s stock has risen a total of 38%, with a 34% surge in April alone—the best monthly performance since 2004. In the same period, Nvidia’s stock rose only 8%, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index.

AI chips, cloud computing, search advertising, autonomous driving—Alphabet holds a crucial position in nearly every key segment of the AI ecosystem, which is the core reason for investors’ surge in confidence. Analysts are rapidly revising earnings forecasts upward; in the past month alone, consensus estimates for Alphabet’s net profit in 2026 have been raised by about 19%, and 2027 estimates by over 7%.

Market Cap Chase: Narrowing the Gap by Over $1.5 Trillion in Six Months

On October 31 last year, Nvidia’s market cap was $4.9 trillion, Alphabet’s was less than $3.4 trillion, with a gap of more than $1.5 trillion. Now, the gap has closed to around $400 billion.

The last time Alphabet topped global market cap was in early 2016, briefly overtaking Apple. Currently, Apple’s market cap is $4.3 trillion, Microsoft’s is $3.1 trillion, Amazon’s is $2.9 trillion, and Alphabet firmly holds second place.

Investors believe Alphabet’s eventual victory follows an inherent logic. Luke O'Neill, Chief Investment Officer at CooksonPeirce Wealth Management, said: "Alphabet is positioned in nearly every corner of the AI ecosystem, and everything it offers combined puts it in a favorable position to become the biggest AI winner." The institution holds both Alphabet and Nvidia shares.

Comprehensive AI Layout: From Chips to Models, Alphabet's Reach Extends to Every Key Node

Nvidia leads in the AI chip sector, but Alphabet is challenging it with self-developed TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips, which are winning over more and more clients. CEO Sundar Pichai said TPU chips will soon be available to Google Cloud customers, allowing them to run TPUs in their own data centers.

According to a report released by Citizens analyst Andrew Boone on May 5, Alphabet expects to generate about $3 billion in revenue from TPU-related infrastructure in 2026, and that figure will leap to $25 billion in 2027.

In addition to chips, Alphabet also owns massive businesses such as Google Search, Google Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo. Its Gemini AI model is considered one of the industry’s top products, and Alphabet is also a major investor in Anthropic—whose Claude model likewise leads the sector.

Divyaunsh Divatia, research analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, said: "Alphabet has everything you want, which is why everyone feels so comfortable holding it—because it has so many ways to win in the AI field. Search, chips, cloud, YouTube, and Gemini; it earns revenue from all these sources."

High Valuation: Limited Upside, Risks Not to Be Ignored

Despite strong market sentiment, the upside potential for Alphabet’s stock is now relatively limited. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, analysts’ average price target for the stock over the next 12 months is about $422, only 5.4% higher than last Friday’s close—even as the stock has surged 160% over the past year.

In terms of valuation, Alphabet is currently trading at 28 times forward earnings—not at the extreme bubble levels of the dot-com era, but well above its 10-year average of less than 21 times, approaching the highest levels since 2008.

Risks cannot be ignored. Gemini and other top AI models could be overtaken by competitors at any time, and Alphabet’s lackluster performance last year showed just how quickly market sentiment can shift in the AI era.

Still, O'Neill is relatively optimistic about the current valuation, citing Warren Buffett’s famous quote—"It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price"—as his endorsement. Notably, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought Alphabet shares last year, a rare tech stock investment for the famous value investor. "Even if it’s no longer a bargain, it’s still a fair price," O'Neill said. "It’s undoubtedly a wonderful company."

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investment should be undertaken carefully. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor does it consider the special investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situations. Investments made based on this article are at the user's own risk. ```