Alternative data sounds the alarm: Kalshi bets heavily on Nvidia chip price cuts, pricing power myth faces a test

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Nvidia's pricing power is being directly questioned by the market. Trading data from prediction market Kalshi shows that traders are generally betting that the leasing price for Nvidia’s flagship GPU chip, the B200, will not return to recent highs by the end of the second quarter. This "alternative data" signal resonates with the recent relative weakness in Nvidia’s stock price, making the market increasingly cautious about the short-term outlook for this AI chip giant.

According to GPU computing power real-time price tracking platform Ornn, the hourly computing price of Nvidia’s B200 chip climbed to a nearly three-month high of $6.11 on May 30, but has since continued to decline, dropping to $4.22 as of June 21, a cumulative decline of more than 30%. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s stock price has fallen by about 3% over the past month, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has risen 15% in the same period, and memory chip stocks like Micron Technology and Sandisk have each surged nearly 60% in the past month.

The relevant contract on Kalshi’s platform will settle on June 30, using Ornn’s B200 computing power price as the benchmark. The current distribution of traders’ positions suggests that most believe it will be difficult for the B200’s price to surpass the end-of-May peak before the deadline. This pessimistic bet directly addresses the core issue of whether Nvidia can maintain its strong pricing power throughout this AI infrastructure cycle.

Stock Lags Peers, Nvidia Falls Into Relative Stagnation

Although Nvidia is still up about 12% year-to-date, its recent performance has obviously lagged behind the broader semiconductor sector. SMH has risen a cumulative 84% so far this year, with a 15% increase this month, forming a sharp contrast to Nvidia.

The market’s attention is shifting. Wall Street is now focusing on memory chips and the next stage of AI infrastructure development, with Micron Technology and Sandisk becoming the main targets for capital inflows, both rising nearly 60% in the past month. Nvidia has been notably marginalized in this round of trading, and investors are increasingly sensitive to its lack of short-term catalysts.

B200 ComputingPrice Retreats, Uncertainties On Both Supply and Demand Sides

The decline in the B200’s price reflects deeper uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides of the AI infrastructure market.

Professor of Finance at Santa Clara University, Seoyoung Kim, previously told CNBC: "Many companies do not know how much computing power they’ll require in the next year. Computing suppliers are also unsure about how many GPUs to order and on what scale, and manufacturers like Nvidia also aren’t sure how much to produce." This three-way information asymmetry makes GPU leasing price volatility the norm and makes it difficult for the market to form stable expectations for Nvidia’s revenue.

Most companies rent GPU computing power through cloud service providers or emerging "neocloud" platforms, with rental prices fluctuating according to AI infrastructure demand. The B200’s price has fallen more than 30% from its high, indicating that computing power supply is relatively ample or demand growth has slowed in the short term.

Google-SpaceX Order Boosts, RBC Positive on Second Half Outlook

Despite weak recent data, Nvidia still has fundamental support. Earlier this month, Google and SpaceX signed an agreement to pay $920 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029 to lease AI computing power, including the use of about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and supporting hardware.

After the deal was announced, RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism about Nvidia's performance in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, saying that Nvidia "is in the most advantageous position among its peers." Analysts wrote in a report: "Whatever the specific reason, these GPU leasing agreements should dispel ongoing concerns about Nvidia’s market share being eroded by customized chips (ASICs), at least in the short term."

The Signal Value of Alternative Data

Kalshi’s betting data has drawn attention because it provides a market signal independent of traditional sell-side research. The price mechanism of prediction markets directly reflects the actual positions and probability judgments of trading participants, rather than analysts’ subjective forecasts.

Currently, Kalshi traders’ positions are focused on the B200’s price being unable to break May’s high by the end of the second quarter, a view that is validated by Nvidia’s recent stock performance. For investors, this means the market is still searching for a new equilibrium between the long-term optimism brought by major procurement agreements like Google’s and the short-term pricing pressure on computing power. Whether Nvidia’s pricing power can be re-validated in the next quarter will be a key indicator to watch for its fundamentals.

Risk Disclaimer and Disclaimer ClauseThe market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk. ```