Altman changes tune: AI is unlikely to cause a "jobs apocalypse," as interpersonal relationships are an irreplaceable "moat."

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Altman, who previously faced attacks due to controversies over AI risks, has now changed his stance, saying: The impact of AI on the job market may be far less severe than people worry.

On Tuesday local time, Altman attended a conference in Sydney hosted by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), and pointed out that the rapid development and widespread application of artificial intelligence is unlikely to trigger a global “employment doomsday.” He stated that the extent to which AI actually replaces entry-level white-collar jobs is far lower than he previously expected. Meanwhile, he particularly emphasized that the “human factor” in workplace interactions is an important reason for him to revise this judgment.

However, Altman did not completely rule out risks. In his speech, he reminded that the profound impacts on employment “may still occur,” leaving some room for doubt. Against the backdrop of many global corporations announcing the replacement of certain positions with AI, Altman’s adjusted position both offers a new perspective for evaluating the real impact of AI on the labor market, and to some extent, eases the pessimism around the effect of AI replacing jobs.

It’s worth noting that just over a month before this speech, Altman’s San Francisco residence had been attacked twice in succession—first with firebombs, and 45 hours later by gunfire. The suspect had filled documents with extreme anxieties about AI risk and "impending extinction." This change in stance is less an optimistic assessment of the job market, and more a recalibration of the AI risk narrative.

Accurate technical prediction, errors in judging social impact

In a conversation with CBA’s CEO Matt Comyn, Altman candidly admitted that since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, the company’s technical development predictions were “mostly accurate,” but there were notable deviations on economic and social aspects.

He had previously expected AI at this stage to have a more serious impact on entry-level white-collar jobs, but that has not been the case. He said this is one area where his intuition was completely off, and added that he now has a deeper understanding of this phenomenon. He said:

“I’m glad I was wrong about this. I originally thought by this point there would be much more elimination of entry-level white-collar jobs than there actually is.”

It’s worth noting that Altman did not cite specific employment data in this speech. Previously, he had often publicly discussed the risks of industry-wide layoffs that could come with AI advancement.

Interpersonal interaction forms an “employment moat”

What prompted Altman to revise his judgment was a personal experience. He once tried to have AI reply to Slack and emails on his behalf, tagging them as “This is Sam’s AI replying,” but ultimately still chose to handle part of the communication himself. He said:

“This made me realize deeply that we truly care about our interactions with each other. Although this takes up a lot of my time, I can’t imagine outsourcing it to AI in the near term.”

As a result, Altman believes that the interpersonal interaction dimension involved in many professions will not be easily replaced by AI. He stated that the employment landscape will likely look very different from previous assumptions, and he does not think we will see the kind of “employment doomsday” that some insiders have hyped or discussed.

An alternative reality beyond Altman’s optimism

Beyond the employment topic, OpenAI's own capital moves are also highly watched. Wallstreetcn mentioned OpenAI could file for IPO as soon as this week, with the IPO to be completed in September, targeting a valuation over 1 trillion dollars.

Meanwhile, many global corporations have already announced plans to replace certain positions with AI, including HSBC, Amazon, Standard Chartered, and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This trend shows that although Altman’s assessment of the overall employment impact is turning optimistic, the real effect of AI replacing certain positions continues to progress.

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