Aluminum prices soar, and China's aluminum exports are expected to reach a record high!

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Surging global aluminum prices are accelerating China's exports, and analysts predict export volumes could break historical records in the coming months.

Recently, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have reached a four-year high, with the price gap between LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum widening to its highest level since March 2022. Driven by this price gap, China's aluminum exports jumped 15% in April, reaching 598,000 tons, setting a new monthly high since November 2024.

Zhu Liangmin, an analyst at Beijing Aladdiny Zhongying Business Consulting, said, export volumes are expected to climb further in the coming months, surpassing 680,000 tons and setting a new record. Overseas demand is particularly strong for products such as aluminum rods for power grids and aluminum alloy wheels for automobiles.

Middle East conflict triggers supply gap, LME premium reaches four-year high

The war in the Middle East has disrupted supply in major aluminum-producing regions, causing a significant gap in the international market and pushing LME aluminum prices higher. Currently, the LME premium over Shanghai aluminum has reached its highest level since March 2022, and the competition for aluminum in the international market has intensified.

As the world's largest aluminum producer, China has been relatively less affected directly by this supply shortage, but the strong rally in the LME has also pulled up Shanghai aluminum prices. The high international price gap provides significant profit margins for exports and incentivizes domestic producers to export.

According to reports, Henan Province, a major hub for aluminum processing, currently has many aluminum processing companies running at full capacity, actively handling overseas orders, with especially strong demand for products like ultra-thin battery foil. An executive from Henan Aluminum said the company’s overseas sales in the second quarter have seen a clear increase.

Regarding the structure of export products, Zhu Liangmin pointed out that aluminum rods for power grids—exempted from recent tightening policies on export tax rebates—as well as aluminum alloy wheels for automobiles, are becoming the main sources of export growth.

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