"America's 'booster shot' for the economy in 2026? Leading indicators from the U.S. construction industry show: a 'data center construction boom' is coming."

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Key leading indicators in the U.S. non-residential construction industry show that a data center-driven construction boom is brewing, expected to fully erupt in 2026, and is likely to inject strong momentum into the U.S. economy.

According to the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) released by the Dodge Construction Network, although September’s growth rate slowed to 3%, it still surged by 60% year-on-year. Among them, institutional projects soared 75% year-on-year and commercial projects grew by 53%, with data center construction being the main driving force behind commercial activity growth.

As it usually takes more than 12 months from planning to groundbreaking for construction projects, the DMI is regarded as a leading indicator for construction spending 9-12 months into the future. This means the wave of data center planning projects emerging this year will transform into actual construction activities in 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Susan Maklari pointed out that large-scale projects in data centers and the public sector are dominating the construction landscape. This stands in stark contrast to the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), which weakened further to 43.3, reflecting that a handful of very large projects are reshaping the industry structure.

It is notable that the timing of this construction peak coincides with the 2026 midterm election cycle, which is expected to provide crucial economic support for the Trump administration.

Construction Peak to Arrive in the Second Half of 2026

Since it usually takes more than 12 months from planning to groundbreaking, DMI is seen as a 9-12 month leading indicator for construction spending.

This suggests that the frequent data center investment plans reported this year will move from the planning stage to actual construction by 2026.

DMI rose 3% in September, a slowdown from 5% in August and 21% in July. But year-on-year, the index still posted a sharp gain of 60%.

The data shows institutional projects surged 75% year-on-year, mainly concentrated in the healthcare and public facilities sectors. Commercial activity grew by 53% year-on-year, driven by data centers and retail projects.

UBS analyst Steven Fisher predicted in a May report that the Trump-era boom in AI data center construction will not really penetrate the real economy until next year. Fisher stated:

"There will be further slowdown before it re-accelerates in 2026; we expect stimulus measures and structural forces to propel the rebound, while cyclical factors will remain weak."

Fisher expects construction spending to re-accelerate in the second half of 2026. This will undoubtedly become a key economic driver for the Trump administration during the 2026 midterm election cycle.

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