An OPEC+ representative said that production is expected to increase slightly for the third consecutive month in December, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day.
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On Monday, media cited two delegates as saying that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is expected to modestly restore some crude oil production in December, which is the baseline scenario for a key meeting of the group’s core members this weekend.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, is currently expected to discuss a third consecutive monthly increase of 137,000 barrels per day in oil production. This topic will be addressed at a video conference on November 2. OPEC+ is gradually restoring the previously suspended 1.66 million barrels per day in an attempt to regain its share in the global oil market.
However, the alliance’s plan has not yet been finalized. Global crude prices remain volatile, and the market faces multiple uncertainties such as signs of supply surplus, weak demand, and a new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia, a key OPEC+ member. One representative noted that the final decision may also depend on trade developments.
On Monday, WTI December crude futures closed down $0.19, or 0.31%, at $61.31 per barrel. Brent December crude futures fell $0.32, or 0.49%, to $65.62 per barrel. In the previous week, oil prices had risen significantly due to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies.
According to a Bloomberg survey of 10 oil traders, refiners, and analysts, 9 expect OPEC+ to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, while one person predicts a larger increase.
OPEC+ has surprised the market several times this year, beginning to restore production after two years of cuts to support oil prices. The alliance reinstated 2.2 million barrels per day of production a year ahead of schedule, but the latest pace of restoration is noticeably more cautious.
Officials say this round of OPEC+ production easing is mainly driven by Saudi Arabia’s desire to regain market share taken in recent years by U.S. shale oil producers and other competitors.
Political factors may also influence the final decision. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to visit the White House on November 18, while U.S. President Trump has repeatedly called for lower fuel prices, and Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to strengthen bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, oil traders are closely watching the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two oil giants, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. This move is Trump’s latest effort to help end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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