Analyst: Apple's first foldable phone priced at $2,399

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According to media reports on Tuesday, Fubon Research analysts predict that the price of Apple’s first foldable-screen iPhone will reach $2,399, placing it at the high end of market expectations.

Although global demand for smartphones continues to decline, foldable devices—particularly Apple’s entry into the market—are seen as the sole highlight for 2026.

Analyst Arthur Liao estimates that global smartphone shipments will drop 4% year-on-year to 1.2 billion units in 2026, with iPhone shipments falling to 234 million units, a decrease of 4%. In the face of overall industry weakness, high component costs will further squeeze profit margins, but there are high hopes for Apple’s foldable device, which is expected to become a major catalyst for the industry.

Fubon Research, based on supply chain analysis and Apple’s profit margin requirements, set the price of this device at $2,399. Despite the high price, the institution remains optimistic about demand, forecasting total lifetime sales of 15.4 million units for the foldable iPhone.

Industry Under Pressure, Rising Costs Worsen Challenges

The smartphone market in 2026 will face multiple pressures. Fubon Research points out that shipments in the Chinese market are expected at 275 million units, down 3% year-on-year, while iPhone shipments will fall to 234 million units.

The rapid increase in component costs will pose a major burden for manufacturers. Compared to Q4 2024, DRAM contract prices have already risen by more than 75%. The total bill of materials cost for smartphones is projected to increase by about 5% to 7% in 2026. This cost pressure will directly affect manufacturers’ pricing strategies and profit margins.

Foldables Become the Only Growth Point

Amid overall market weakness, foldable devices have been defined by Fubon Research as the “sole highlight” of the 2026 smartphone market. The launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone is seen as an important industry catalyst.

Fubon Research believes that the device’s bill of materials costs—especially for the panel, hinge, and lightweight components—will drive pricing toward the high end of market expectations. The previously rumored price range was $2,000 to $2,500, and Fubon’s $2,399 forecast is at the upper-middle end of this range.

Despite the high price, Fubon remains optimistic about demand. Based on a 7% penetration rate assumption, the institution projects total lifetime sales of 15.4 million units for the foldable iPhone, with 5.4 million units sold in 2026.

Besides foldables, Apple also plans to introduce camera technology upgrades in 2026. Fubon Research expects the iPhone 18 series to feature variable aperture lenses, which, due to technical complexity, may be supplied exclusively by Largan Precision. These technological innovations show that despite overall market weakness, Apple continues to maintain product competitiveness and a premium position through differentiated features.

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this article is at your own risk. ```