Another twist in the Middle East: Qatar denies arranging high-level US-Iran talks in Doha, Israeli forces launch multi-front raids, Oman reportedly paving the way for Iran to charge Strait service fees.

Another twist in the Middle East: Qatar denies arranging high-level US-Iran talks in Doha, Israeli forces launch multi-front raids, Oman reportedly paving the way for Iran to charge Strait service fees.

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After US President Trump high-profile declared on Monday that the US and Iran would hold a new round of talks in Doha on Tuesday, the Middle East situation once again saw dramatic changes on Tuesday.

Both the Iranian and Qatari foreign ministries denied plans for high-level US-Iran talks on Tuesday, June 30 local time, indicating obvious obstacles remain for the resumption of direct negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel continues to expand its military operations against the Palestinian region and maintains high-pressure deterrence against Iran, keeping the Middle East security situation at a high-risk stage.

New developments have also emerged regarding the Hormuz Strait, a focus for energy markets. US media revealed that, to avoid sparking international legal disputes by Iran directly charging “tolls” on international ships, Oman is promoting a “service fee” scheme instead of a “toll,” with Oman collecting the charges and sharing the revenue with Iran. This provides legal and diplomatic buffering for Iran to establish a new strait fee mechanism.

Analysts believe that as the US-Iran diplomatic process slows again, Israeli military actions continue to escalate, and the Hormuz Strait management mechanism enters a new negotiation stage, the Middle East is returning to a state where diplomatic, military, and energy main lines interweave and compete, and regional risk premiums are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term.

Qatar and Iran Deny High-Level Doha Talks, US-Iran Still in Indirect Contact Stage

On June 30 local time, there was a clear contrast in statements from various sides regarding whether the US and Iran would hold high-level talks in Doha, Qatar.

Trump stated on Monday that the US and Iran would hold a new round of talks in Doha on Tuesday and hinted that the two sides might continue to advance negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue. However, Iran’s foreign ministry denied this on the same day, stating that Iran would not hold any level of talks with the US in the coming days. US media CNN cited two US officials on Monday night saying that US presidential envoy Witkoff was en route to Doha.

According to Xinhua citing Iranian media on Tuesday, June 30, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated, Iran has no plans to hold any level of talks with the US in the near term. Iran may hold talks with Qatar on July 1.

Xinhua reported that at a routine press conference on June 30, Baghaei responded to reports about possible US-Iran talks in Doha by saying that Iran has repeatedly made it clear that there are no arrangements for talks with the US in the coming days, so there is no question of canceling such talks.

Baghaei said, “Tomorrow in Doha, there may be discussions with Qatar on the implementation of the terms of the memorandum of understanding, including provisions to unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets.” He noted that several terms of the memorandum are currently being implemented.

Subsequently, the Qatari foreign ministry also publicly clarified the relevant news.

According to CCTV News, on June 30 local time, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Ansari stated at a press conference that there are no plans for the US and Iran to hold a high-level meeting in Doha on that day.

Ansari stated that US Middle East envoy Witkoff along with Trump’s son-in-law Kushner did visit Qatar on that day and discussed negotiation progress with mediators and intermediaries, but their visit did not include direct talks with Iran.

This means the US and Iran currently still mainly rely on Qatar, Oman, and other mediators to maintain indirect communication; a breakthrough in resuming face-to-face negotiations has yet to be reached.

Israeli Military Expands West Bank Operations, Multi-Front Military Pressure Continues

While diplomacy has cooled, Israeli military actions continue to advance.

According to multiple media reports, on June 30 local time, Israeli forces conducted one of the largest military raids in recent years in the northern West Bank, with large numbers of troops entering several Palestinian towns to conduct searches, blockades, and sweeps.

Meanwhile, military operations toward Gaza have not ceased, and the Lebanese border remains on high alert.

Analysts believe that although large-scale direct military conflict between Israel and Iran has temporarily subsided, Israel is still maintaining high-pressure deterrence against Iran and its regional proxies. Recently, Israeli forces have been keeping up military pressure on Iran’s military system, the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, and its regional allies, demonstrating Israel’s intention to hold strategic initiative ahead of the restart of diplomatic negotiations.

Therefore, under the new uncertainty in US-Iran diplomacy, the market generally believes Middle East security risks have not been significantly alleviated.

Compared with diplomatic and military developments, the latest progress on the Hormuz Strait fee mechanism is more closely watched by energy markets.

The New York Times reported on June 30 local time that Oman is working with Iran to establish a new charging arrangement for the Hormuz Strait, but the plan deliberately avoids the term “toll,” which can easily lead to disputes under international law, opting for “service fee” instead.

It’s reported that under the current plan, charges will mainly cover public services such as channel management, vessel traffic coordination, piloting, safety assurance, and environmental protection, rather than directly charging ships for “passing through the strait.”

More importantly, Oman will be responsible for collecting the fees, and then, under agreements reached by both sides, share the revenue with Iran.

The New York Times pointed out that the design has two considerations: first, it avoids Iran directly charging international shipping “tolls,” which reduces legal risk of violating the principle of free navigation of international straits and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea; second, it helps Iran establish a long-term, stable income source from the strait, addressing its demand to earn more economic benefits through the Hormuz Strait.

Some analysts believe Oman serves as a legal and diplomatic “buffer,” maintaining the strait’s openness while providing an internationally acceptable framework for Iran’s fee mechanism through “service charges.”

Free Passage in Hormuz Nears Its End, Market Watches Future Transport Cost Changes

The reason the Hormuz fee mechanism draws attention is also related to arrangements after recent US-Iran easing.

As part of previous easing measures, Iran announced a period of 60 days free passage for international shipping.

Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf recently stated that since the US lifted some restrictions on Iran’s oil exports after the US-Iran memorandum, Iran has exported over 40 million barrels of oil, and said that Iran’s oil is selling at a premium about 20% above international market prices. He also noted that after some sanctions relief, work on unfreezing about $12 billion of Iranian funds is progressing.

With the free period nearing its end, how the Hormuz fee mechanism will finally be implemented has become a new focus for global energy markets.

Market participants believe that the Hormuz Strait accounts for around 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport; once a new fee regime is implemented, even if charged as a “service fee” rather than a “toll,” it could still push up international shipping costs, and further affect global energy prices, shipping markets, and inflation expectations.

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