Anta's various brands had strong sales in the first quarter, resilient profitability, and the management remains cautious.

```

Anta Sports delivered a first-quarter retail report card for 2026 that exceeded market expectations. The Anta main brand rebounded from a low single-digit decline last quarter to a high single-digit growth; FILA accelerated to low double digits; Descente, Kolon, and MAIA also maintained rapid expansion rates of 40%-55%. Inventory and discount levels both remained steady.

According to Wind Trading Desk, Michelle Cheng, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Asia, noted in a report that despite the noticeably strong first-quarter performance compared to the full-year guidance, management chose to keep the original targets unchanged—Anta main brand retail growth > low single digits, FILA mid single digits, other brands > 20%.

Management’s reasoning: the strong first quarter was partially benefited by consumption brought forward due to the timing of the Spring Festival, and post-holiday sales have slowed, with uncertainties persisting in the macro environment. However, management also expressed that if the second quarter trend continues, a revised full-year outlook is not ruled out. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating with a target price of HK$108, implying about 31% upside to the current share price.

Looking at the pace over the coming months, the May Day holiday and the 618 shopping festival are critical windows to verify whether the trend can continue. Anta’s online category adjustment (especially in footwear) is not yet complete; management intends to thoroughly wrap up before the Double Eleven festival, which means that the elasticity of online channels has not been fully unleashed. In addition, recent internal share purchases are seen by the market as a signal of confidence.

It is noteworthy that raw material cost pressures have been factored into the company’s risk scenario calculations. In the worst case, with oil and petrochemical prices remaining high, the company estimates sales costs will rise 3-5%, mainly affecting footwear. Management believes that the company’s high profit margin structure provides a stronger buffer than peers, and any impact would not show up in product costs until the first quarter of 2027 at the earliest.

FILA’s rebound is stronger than expected

FILA’s first-quarter retail growth accelerated from mid single digits in Q4 to low double digits, with the year-on-year comparison base not being low—last year it grew by high single digits. CEO Jiang Yan specifically attributed this performance to the implementation of the new strategy: brand sponsorship of the Winter Olympics and Milan Fashion Week, renewed core SKUs in products, and store format upgrades in channels.

The market’s biggest doubt about FILA previously was whether the brand’s growth had hit a ceiling. Based on Q1 data, FILA’s online growth reached low double digits (with classic series at high double digits), and offline sub-brands also fully improved. Discount rates remained stable year-on-year, inventory was below 5 months, and pricing discipline showed no signs of loosening. Management rated confidence in FILA as "high," second only to Descente and Kolon.

The Anta main brand’s recovery is not complete

The main brand’s rebound exceeded expectations but also had points of contention. Adult offline channels grew by mid single digits, kids’ offline by high single digits, and overall online by mid double digits—the three-legged structure has basically recovered. The “Lighthouse Store” project is seen as a core lever to improve offline efficiency, with plans to add about 200 new Lighthouse Stores this year, reaching 500 stores by year-end, plus advancing another 100 lightweight Lighthouse Stores.

Footwear, especially running shoes, is admitted as a shortcoming by management. With Nike’s Greater China sales still down about 10% year-on-year, Anta is positive about Nike’s more rational pricing strategy, believing this helps improve the overall discount environment in the industry. However, management sees clearly that whether discounts can continue to narrow ultimately depends on terminal demand and competition, not the decision of a single brand.

The small brand cluster is the real growth flywheel

Descente and Kolon are the most outstanding parts of this report—Descente +30-35% and beyond internal expectations, discounts below 10%; Kolon +50-55%, inventory less than 4 months. Confidence in these two brands is rated highest by management, and their premium positioning gives them natural insulation from discount competition.

MAIA is still in the incubation phase; behind +30-35% growth, the three model stores each reached a monthly sales of 1 million RMB. The company’s attitude is to prioritize building brand assets over short-term sales scale. Jack Wolfskin and MAIA are expected to still drag overall profits in 2026, but may turn contribution positive in 2027. As for Puma, its impact timing depends on the progress of any prospective transaction.

Overseas expansion logic has become concrete

Southeast Asia and Australia/New Zealand are the main battlegrounds for current overseas expansion, with North America and Europe defined as “long-term layouts.” The goal set in mid-2025—opening 1,000 stores in the ASEAN market within three years—remains valid. At the same time, Anta has begun cooperation with Indian retailer Brandman Retail, planning to open stores in major Indian cities in 2026. This is Anta’s first substantial move in the South Asian market.

Overall, Anta has used first-quarter data to demonstrate the multi-brand matrix’s adaptability to different demand scenarios. The question is simply: can this pace continue into Q2 and Q3, or is the first quarter’s outperformance merely a one-off benefit from the Spring Festival’s shift in timing? Management’s decision not to raise guidance until the answer is clear is itself a kind of information.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks; investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investments based on this article are at your own risk. ```