Anthropic executives discuss Q4 IPO; investment banks estimate fundraising could reach $60 billion.

AI unicorn Anthropic is rapidly advancing towards the capital markets. According to informed sources, the company’s executives have started discussions about launching an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of this year. Investment banks vying for the underwriting mandate estimate that Anthropic could raise over $60 billion, potentially becoming the second-largest IPO in history, just after SpaceX. According to The Information, Anthropic has already taken concrete steps to prepare for listing, including cooperating with the law firm Wilson Sonsini. Last month, the company completed a new round of financing, bringing its valuation to $350 billion. Rival OpenAI is also preparing for an IPO, with CEO Sam Altman privately stating that he hopes to go public before Anthropic. The timeline for both companies’ listings will largely depend on the macro market environment. The successive listings of these two top AI labs would mark a pivotal moment in the current AI boom and have far-reaching impacts on sectors such as cloud computing and chips. For investors, this means the window to directly participate in core AI assets is approaching. Fundraising May Be Second Largest in History According to The Information citing sources, investment banks vying for Anthropic’s IPO estimate that the fundraising scale could exceed $60 billion. If realized, this would be the second-largest IPO in history after SpaceX, which is expected to go public as early as this summer with a fundraising scale of up to $75 billion. Sources noted that these figures will not be finalized before the actual offering. Typically, companies sell 10% to 25% of their equity in an IPO, and investment banks estimate the fundraising based on company valuation and investor demand. Anthropic’s latest round of financing last month set its valuation at $350 billion. Although IPO discussions have entered a more concrete planning phase, sources emphasize that plans may change at any time, macroeconomic events may impact the process, and the company may ultimately abandon its listing. IPO Race Between OpenAI and Anthropic The competition between the two companies’ IPOs is not limited to business but extends to the race for market timing. Sources say OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has privately stated his hope to go public before Anthropic. OpenAI is nearing completion of a new financing round, with a pre-money valuation of $730 billion and plans to raise $12 billion, so it does not face urgent capital pressure to list. OpenAI has held informal talks with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Michael Klein, a senior banker at Goldman, helped OpenAI complete a corporate restructuring last autumn. Bankers and lawyers handling IPOs generally expect Anthropic to list before OpenAI. They believe public market investors favor Anthropic’s focus on developer and enterprise customers and its relatively shorter path to profitability. Rapid Revenue Growth, Clearer Path to Profitability Anthropic has posted astounding revenue growth this year. According to The Information, driven by strong demand for automated programming tools, annualized revenue in the first two months more than doubled to $19 billion, narrowing its gap with OpenAI. By comparison, OpenAI’s ChatGPT subscription revenue pushed its annualized revenue past $25 billion last month. In terms of profit expectations, Anthropic has previously projected achieving positive cash flow as early as 2028, with cumulative capital consumption estimated at $22 billion by then. OpenAI expects to achieve positive free cash flow in 2030, but had previously forecast cumulative losses exceeding $200 billion. IPO advisors note that when communicating with regulators about potential listings, both companies’ accounting for AI model resale revenue by cloud providers, as well as forecasting unprecedented revenue growth and server costs, will likely be key review topics. Private Equity Partnerships and Market Risks Beyond IPO preparations, both companies are actively expanding cooperation with private equity firms. Sources revealed Anthropic is negotiating with Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Permira about founding joint ventures; OpenAI has also discussed similar arrangements with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management. Both companies see private equity-owned enterprise customers as important business targets. However, IPO timelines face external uncertainties. Tensions in Iran and rising oil prices have triggered concerns over a resurgence of inflation and declining consumer spending, which could suppress overall IPO market activity and affect the ultimate listing pace of both AI labs. The Financial Times had previously reported that Anthropic could finish its IPO within this year. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risk, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this is entirely at your own risk.