Anthropic makes bold claim: Revenue to increase 180 times in four years, positive cash flow three years ahead of OpenAI

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Anthropic is challenging OpenAI with a more efficient business model, reshaping the competitive landscape in the AI sector.

According to technology media outlet The Information on Tuesday local time, Anthropic has significantly raised its revenue expectations for this summer. Specifically:

The company raised its most optimistic revenue forecast for this year by about 26% to $4.7 billion, a significant increase from its pre-funding expectation in March. In comparison, Anthropic's revenue last year was about $381 million.

Its revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised by 28% to $15.2 billion, and the forecast for 2027 increased by 13% to $38.9 billion.

In 2028, revenue will reach $70 billion, about 13 times this year's amount and more than 182 times last year's.

Anthropic’s ambitions go further. The company predicts that its API-based AI model sales revenue in 2025 will be twice that of rival OpenAI's similar business. More importantly, Anthropic expects to achieve positive cash flow as early as 2027, three years ahead of OpenAI's 2030 goal.

This aggressive growth trajectory could attract investors to inject capital into the company in the coming months. Sources reveal that if a new round of funding occurs, Anthropic's target valuation will be between $300 billion and $400 billion. The company just completed a $13 billion funding round in September, reaching a valuation of $170 billion.

Anthropic's optimistic expectations highlight the rapid evolution of the AI market, as well as the intensifying differentiated competition between commercial strategies focused on enterprise clients and those pursuing diversified layouts.

Cash Flow Race: Efficiency vs. Scale

The two AI giants are taking distinctly different paths in cash flow management.

OpenAI currently has a valuation of $500 billion and expects $13 billion in revenue this year—nearly three times Anthropic’s most optimistic forecast of $4.7 billion. However, due to the massive computing costs of developing new AI technologies, OpenAI’s cash consumption this year will be more than three times that of Anthropic.

By 2027, the gap will become even more pronounced. According to both companies’ forecasts, OpenAI’s cash consumption that year will reach about $35 billion, while Anthropic will achieve $3 billion in free cash flow. In 2028, Anthropic expects to generate up to $17 billion in cash, while OpenAI is forecast to consume nearly $47 billion.

Anthropic, in a more conservative scenario, forecasts $3.6 billion in free cash flow for 2028, corresponding to $32.5 billion in revenue. The company's gross margin is expected to climb from -94% last year to 50% this year, and reach 77% in 2028.

Enterprise Clients as the API Growth Engine, Coding Assistants Emerging as a New Force

Anthropic is betting its growth on the enterprise API business. This company, founded by former OpenAI executives, focuses on selling Claude AI models to enterprise clients via API, including customers such as Cursor developer Anysphere and legal AI startup Harvey. The company also offers subscription services ranging from $17 to $150 per month.

In contrast, OpenAI’s business scope is broader, covering sectors like advertising, e-commerce, and AI hardware. While OpenAI predicts that ChatGPT subscriptions will drive most of its growth in the coming years, Anthropic's leadership believes the API will remain the backbone of its revenue.

Anthropic expects about $3.8 billion in API and related revenue this year, while OpenAI previously forecast annual API sales of $1.8 billion. The company projects that enterprise sales via API and related applications will continue to contribute over 80% of its revenue through 2028.

Claude Code, Anthropic's coding assistant launched nine months ago, is quickly emerging as a new growth point. Sources told The Information that Claude Code is approaching $1 billion in annualized revenue, a significant increase from about $400 million in July. Last month, Anthropic’s annualized revenue was close to $7 billion.

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