Apple wants to buy memory from ChangXin? Ming-Chi Kuo: The real reason is "the storage gap will continue to widen next year"

According to a June 27th report cited by China News Finance from the Financial Times, six sources revealed that to alleviate cost pressures caused by rising memory chip prices, Apple is lobbying the US government, hoping to gain approval to purchase memory chips from Chinese semiconductor company CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies). Meanwhile, renowned Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo posted on social media offering deeper insight into this development.

Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out directly: "The supply-demand gap for memory will continue to widen until 2027. This is the real reason Apple is lobbying the White House."

He further noted that the pressure Apple faces has shifted from "skyrocketing memory prices" to "widening supply gaps"—the two are different in nature, and the latter is harder to solve by raising prices or switching suppliers.

Price hikes are superficial—the supply gap is the core issue

This Thursday, Apple rarely raised the prices of MacBook and iPad models, with its market value evaporating by $263 billion in a single day—the second-largest single-day drop in history. Apple attributed the price hikes to "unbearable" memory prices and plans to pass the cost onto consumers.

But Ming-Chi Kuo believes that cost pressure is only a short-term issue—supply shortage is the longer-term threat.

According to his latest industry research: In 2026, 15% to 20% of memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics is expected to shift to data centers by 2027, and this ratio may continue to expand.

The logic is clear: AI infrastructure construction keeps siphoning off high-end memory capacity, and the "cake" available for consumer electronics is shrinking.

This trend has already begun affecting Apple's product timeline. Ming-Chi Kuo said that due to tight LPDDR memory supply, the actual shipment volume of Apple's A20 chip in the second half of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027 may be 10% to 20% lower than the original target—though part of this may also reflect Apple's own excess bookings.

Why Apple is more proactive this time

"In 2022, evaluating Yangtze Memory was mainly to drive down NAND flash costs; this time, seeking CXMT is to manage DRAM supply risks," Ming-Chi Kuo wrote.

The difference is: lowering costs is a bonus, managing supply risks is a necessity. This also explains why Apple is more active and proactive this time.

However, Ming-Chi Kuo also made it clear—even if lobbying succeeds, the effect will be quite limited. CXMT's IPO prospectus has stated that its capacity is far below domestic demand. In the backdrop of continued global memory supply-demand imbalance, Apple sourcing DRAM from CXMT "cannot essentially lower costs nor fill the supply gap."

But Kuo believes Apple still has ample reason to pursue this extra source of supply—"With the supply-demand imbalance widening, having one more source also means one more layer of assurance."

Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned a timing factor.

He wrote: "Tim Cook is one of the few tech leaders able to maneuver in both Washington and Beijing, so it's best to push this before he steps down as CEO."

CXMT: Rapid capacity expansion but still not meeting demand

Regarding CXMT, China News Finance reported that on June 12, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the initial public offering registration application of Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. This IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion RMB, making it the second-largest IPO in the STAR Market's history, only after SMIC (which raised 53.23 billion RMB).

Financial data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Changxin Technology's revenue reached 50.8 billion RMB, up 719.13% year-on-year; its net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.762 billion RMB, up 1688.30% year-on-year. The company expects first-half 2026 revenue to be between 110 billion and 120 billion RMB, and net profit between 50 and 57 billion RMB.

Despite the astonishing growth rate, CXMT itself has admitted in its prospectus: Capacity is still far below domestic demand. This means that even if Apple opens up the procurement channel, it's difficult for CXMT to become its primary supplier.

Currently, DRAM memory used in Apple devices mainly relies on three suppliers: Micron (US), Samsung (South Korea), and SK Hynix (South Korea).

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