Are the talks happening or not? Iran is sending frequent signals, and the U.S. delegation is already waiting.

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The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is hanging by a thread. Following successive attacks on ships and the detention of freighters in the Gulf region, the Strait of Hormuz has once again been locked down, pushing this fragile agreement to the brink of collapse and sending new shockwaves through the global energy market.

According to Xinhua, citing Iranian media reports on the 20th, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that there are currently no plans for a second round of negotiations with the US. Previously, foreign media reported that Ibrahim Azizi, Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran's Islamic Parliament, said Iran has decided to continue negotiations, but emphasized that this "does not mean negotiating at any cost," nor will it accept "any approach taken by the other side"; if the US sends positive signals, the Iranian delegation will go to Islamabad to participate in talks.

Fifty days have passed since the US-Iran war began, and the ceasefire situation sharply deteriorated once again this weekend. According to CCTV International News, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy announced on the evening of the 18th local time that, due to the US violation of the ceasefire agreement and its failure to lift the blockade on Iranian ships and ports, the Strait of Hormuz is closed immediately until the US blockade is lifted. Trump claimed that Iran’s actions over the weekend were a "complete breach" of the ceasefire agreement and threatened strikes on its power stations and bridges if Tehran refused to negotiate. As of press time, WTI crude futures are up more than 5% to $88 per barrel; international benchmark Brent crude rose 5.6% to $95.50 per barrel.

The ceasefire agreement will expire on Tuesday. Whether a second round of negotiations can be held later this week in Islamabad, Pakistan, will largely determine where the situation goes. Currently, there is a public split between the two sides on whether to continue negotiations.

Negotiations in Doubt: Deep Disputes Hard to Bridge

The ceasefire agreement will expire on Tuesday, and whether the second round of negotiations can take place is highly uncertain at present. According to Xinhua, CCTV News, and others, the US delegation has arrived in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan,, possibly to prepare for a new round of talks between Iran and the US. US Vice President Vance plans to lead a delegation to Pakistan this week to promote US-Iran peace talks, but Iran’s official media denied reports of a "second round of negotiations,” stressing that Iran would refuse to return to the negotiating table as long as the US maintains its maritime blockade.

In the first round of talks held on April 12, US Vice President Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi failed to reach any agreement. According to reports, Washington demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment activities for 20 years, which Iranian leaders rejected, insisting that the maximum be no more than 5 years.

Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic researcher at the Middle East Institute who participated in the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement negotiations, pointed out that the deep divisions between Washington and Tehran go far beyond the current stalemate. "The US side is actually not really focused on the negotiations per se, they're waiting for Iran to capitulate," he said. "Unless the US negotiating team gets rid of the mistaken belief that 'military victory equals strategic dominance,' we won't find a solution."

Eyre warned that the latest point of conflict could further escalate the situation. "Both sides have a tendency to escalate and could slip back into a state of hostilities, which nobody wants to see." He said that although the Islamabad negotiations could still progress, "unfortunately, the greater likelihood is that things go the other way—hostilities reigniting."

Ceasefire on the Brink: Strait "Opened and Closed Again"

After exactly 50 days of war between the US, Israel, and Iran, the situation heated up again dramatically. On Friday, Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, briefly raising hopes that the conflict could ease, but this optimism was dashed in less than 24 hours. According to media reports, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard stated that the Revolutionary Guard decided to once again forcefully restrict commercial shipping through the Strait this weekend, clearly calling it direct retaliation against the Trump administration's continued blockade of Iranian ships.

"On Saturday, we experienced the most violent day in the Strait of Hormuz crisis so far, and things do not seem to be improving," Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and lecturer at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto, said in an interview on Monday.

Johnston likened the situation to "Lucy taking away the football": "We keep seeing oil price sell-offs, keep thinking a breakthrough is near, but it always comes back to square one." He noted that the Strait of Hormuz still hasn’t resumed shipping, with about 13 million barrels per day locked up, "This is production lost every single day."

Since the outbreak of war, crude oil prices have risen by more than 30%. According to LSEG data, Brent crude once exceeded $110 a barrel, the highest in about four years, before retreating as news of ceasefire progress emerged.

Costs Continue to Rise: Largest Modern Energy Supply Disruption

The Strait of Hormuz normally accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transport, but has been effectively closed for nearly two months, with economic costs mounting.

According to Kpler data, over 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have already been withdrawn from the global market, creating the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. Johnston estimates that currently about 13 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and NGLs are being interrupted, "the cumulative loss has surpassed the 500 million barrel mark," and this number is still growing daily.

The International Monetary Fund warned this week that even if the ceasefire holds, global economic growth will inevitably be affected, listing the ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz as a long-term drag on energy costs and inflation.

Despite severe shocks to the energy market, US stock markets have remained relatively resilient, as investors see the current conflict as a short-term disturbance that will quickly be resolved. But Vishnu Varathan, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Mizuho Bank, cautioned: "We can't be overly optimistic about any agreement's signing, since lingering negative effects mean we can't get out of this quickly."

High Oil Prices Likely to Persist Even if Agreement is Reached

Even if both sides ultimately sign an agreement, analysts warn that the supply gap caused by nearly two months of shutdown will take months to make up, oil prices are expected to remain high for a considerable time.

Johnston predicts that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, speculative selling could cause oil prices to fall instantly by $10-20 per barrel. "But ultimately, we'll see a sharp drop on the first day, then a gradual rebound—possibly back to $80-90 per barrel—to reflect ongoing supply scarcity."

Foord Asset Management portfolio manager Brian Arcese said this crisis suggests that the global economy can't return to the "Goldilocks" coexistence of low inflation and high growth. "The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the risk to the global economy," he said, but the actual scale of losses could "change daily, weekly as the situation develops."

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