ASML Earnings Preview: Samsung Foundry Order Trends Will Be the Biggest Catalyst!

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ASML will announce its first-quarter results on April 15. The core focus of this earnings report is the forward-looking signals released by management regarding customer demand guidance, especially the progress of EUV orders for Samsung’s P5 wafer fab, which could become the biggest catalyst driving the stock price.

As ASML has ceased disclosing order data, the market has some anxiety about demand visibility. However, according to media reports, both SK Hynix and Samsung have issued strong order signals, with Samsung P5 wafer fab placing orders for about 20 EUV machines.

J.P. Morgan pointed out that the above-mentioned order dynamics are the most substantive incremental information for this earnings report, and maintains a positive outlook on ASML’s performance prospects.

UBS, taking a longer-term perspective, has summarized five major potential catalysts within the next 12 months, believes ASML has significant room to exceed market expectations, and expects the total 2026 order volume to reach approximately 45 to 50 billion euros, far higher than the market consensus of 39.6 billion euros.

Order Signal: Samsung P5 Wafer Fab as the Main Highlight

Since ASML will no longer disclose specific order data starting this quarter, market attention has completely shifted to qualitative descriptions by management regarding customer demand trends.

There has been previous media coverage that SK Hynix is investing around $8 billion to purchase EUV equipment, and Samsung has placed orders for about 20 EUV machines for its P5 wafer fab. J.P. Morgan points out the progress of Samsung’s P5 orders is "the most important news clue."

Additionally, given that the memory market is currently in a supply-tight state, it is expected that TSMC will provide more frequent demand guidance in 2026 regarding deliveries in 2027 and beyond, further enhancing ASML’s order visibility.

First-quarter Expectations: Revenue Decline Quarter-on-Quarter, Margin In Line with Guidance

J.P. Morgan expects ASML’s first-quarter revenue to be 8.521 billion euros, up 10.1% year-on-year but down 12.3% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below the market consensus (8.696 billion euros) by about 2%, and around the middle of the company’s previous guidance range (8.2–8.9 billion euros).

Gross margin is expected at 52.0%, basically in line with consensus, and the mid-point of the company’s guidance range (51%–53%). Earnings per share forecast is 6.47 euros, about 3.2% below consensus.

UBS forecasts first-quarter revenue at 8.712 billion euros, higher than J.P. Morgan, with a gross margin forecast also at 52.0%.

Notably, buy-side investors are more optimistic about this earnings report, generally believing ASML’s revenue and gross margin will reach the upper end of its guidance range.

Full-Year Guidance: Revenue Expectations Above Company Guidance, UBS Expects Guidance Upgrade

ASML previously gave a range for full-year 2026 revenue growth of 4% to 19% year-on-year, with a midpoint about 11.7%, corresponding to revenue of roughly 36.5 billion euros. Current Bloomberg consensus expectation is about 15.3% growth, higher than the guidance midpoint.

UBS expects ASML will slightly raise its full-year guidance in this earnings report, adjusting the range to 10%–20%, and expects further improvement when second-quarter results are released.

J.P. Morgan is more cautious, believing an early upgrade is not the base case scenario, as the company typically prefers to adjust guidance midpoints in the half-year report. However, if customer factory readiness for DUV equipment is better than expected, or the supply chain arrangements become clearer, early action can't be ruled out.

Next 12 Months: Five Catalysts Driving Valuation Reshaping

UBS has outlined five key catalysts within the next 12 months. Besides the first-quarter results on April 15, the TSMC Technology Symposium on April 22 is also highly anticipated—TSMC may publicly confirm the plan to introduce High-NA EUV for the first time at this event, with prospects for early application in small batch production at the A14 node.

In July–August, hyperscale cloud computing companies are expected to start disclosing 2027 capital expenditure outlooks. It is expected that the 11 main hyperscale companies’ 2027 CAPEX will see about 11% year-on-year growth. If actual numbers exceed expectations, it will provide positive catalyst for the semiconductor equipment sector.

In October, ASML usually gives a qualitative outlook for the next year. Management is expected to describe the 2027 growth prospects with terms like "substantial" or "significant"; the forecasted 20% year-on-year growth is about 6% higher than the market consensus, leaving plenty of room for upgrades.

In January next year, ASML is expected to disclose its backlog order volume for the first time in a year. The backlog at the end of 2026 is estimated at about 45–50 billion euros, notably higher than the market consensus of 39.6 billion euros, which may significantly improve mid-term revenue visibility expectations for the company.

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