At least the lowest since the financial crisis! U.S. retail holiday season hiring expected to be bleak this year

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said Thursday that this year, U.S. retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 workers during the holiday season, marking at least a 15-year low in seasonal employment levels. By comparison, retailers hired a total of 442,000 seasonal employees last year, a significant decrease.

Despite the decline in seasonal hiring, NRF remains optimistic about holiday spending. The organization expects holiday spending to reach a record $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion between November 1 and December 31 this year, marking the first time the total has surpassed $1 trillion. This represents a year-on-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, slightly lower than last year’s growth rate of 4.3%. NRF’s statistics do not include auto dealers, gas stations, or restaurants.

Despite resilient consumer spending, the retail industry remains cautious in hiring—a trend reflected in NRF’s forecast for seasonal employment. From the beginning of 2025 to now, this year stands as the fourth slowest for retail industry hiring since at least 2000, only behind 2009, 2010, and 2012—the years following the financial crisis.

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews stated:

Some companies may have hired early to support October promotions, but overall, retailers are working to control expenses as they face higher cost pressures from tariffs.

The core reason for slowing hiring can be summed up in one word: uncertainty. The first thing businesses do in uncertain environments is to hit pause.

Due to demographic changes and policy shifts—including retirements among the baby boomer generation and stricter immigration policies under the Trump administration—the U.S. economy’s demand for new jobs is lower than in the past.

Nevertheless, Mathews emphasized that hiring and investment levels by businesses will remain key indicators to watch in the coming year. Currently, the wave of investment in artificial intelligence is a major positive for the economy. But this may also mask some underlying cracks. We need to closely monitor business confidence and the constantly changing environment of uncertainty.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay said in a teleconference hosted by the industry group:

This hiring forecast reflects a slowdown and softening in the labor market.

Despite weak consumer confidence, ongoing government shutdowns, fluctuating tariff policies, and heightened price sensitivity from inflation, consumers have unexpectedly maintained their spending levels.

To be fair, this was indeed somewhat surprising to us, especially looking back at our expectations from April this year. This trend is expected to continue through the holiday peak season. Households typically cut spending in other periods or in other budget areas to preserve the holiday atmosphere and consumption.

Media analysis points out that the National Retail Federation’s forecast, as a major industry group, provides the latest window into the job market. With the U.S. government shutdowns continuing at record lengths, leading to fewer releases of economic data such as unemployment and inflation, businesses and economists are increasingly relying on data from private organizations.

Earlier Thursday, career transition firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoff announcements in October soared to 153,074, up 183% month-on-month and 175% year-on-year, marking the highest for any October since 2003. 2025 is also on track to be the worst year for layoff announcements since 2009.

On the other hand, ADP reported Wednesday that net new jobs in the private sector totaled 42,000 in October, reversing two consecutive months of losses.

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