Baijiu sales are gradually picking up—time to position at the bottom for a Spring Festival rebound?

Public fund positions have fallen back to the 2015 bottom. When the market is extremely pessimistic, the "golden pit" of the liquor sector may have already appeared.

Latest data shows that public funds’ holdings of liquor stocks have declined for nine consecutive quarters, dropping to 2.9%, close to the historical low of 2015. However, stripping away emotional noise, the fundamentals are proving the bears wrong: Moutai’s January sales exceeded expectations, with wholesale prices holding firm at 1,570 yuan. Although Yanghe’s performance was halved, it has promised a 100% dividend payout.

Analysis from multiple securities firms believes that with extremely pessimistic position data, the liquor sector’s Spring Festival rebound window may have already opened. For investors, the current game point is: whether to believe in the continuing capital outflows, or to trust the warming end-market sales data.

Major Clean-out: Institutional Positions Back to 2015 Levels

According to Huachuang Securities’ research report, in Q4 2025, fund positions in the food & beverage sector have dropped to 4.0%, down 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter—marking the ninth consecutive quarter of decline. Even more striking, liquor sector positions are only 2.9%, a further decrease of 0.8 percentage points.

CITIC Securities points out that the current overweight ratio for the liquor sector is just 1.0%, lower than levels seen in Q1-Q2 2013. This means that institutional investors’ panic selling has finished, the position structure is extremely clean, and as long as fundamentals show any marginal improvement, the elasticity for short covering will be considerable.

Moutai Wholesale Price Finds a Bottom, Hundreds of Billions in Cash Provide a "Safety Cushion"

Don’t be misled by market noise—the fundamentals of high-end liquor are far stronger than imagined.

CITIC Securities’ research found that recently, both Moutai’s sales and wholesale prices have beaten market expectations. Self-organized bulk purchases from Moutai and specialty stores have broadened the consumer base, and the actual transaction price has already hit a bottom. Currently, overall channel sales are slightly up, with prices firm at around 1,570 yuan. While traditional channels are receiving inventory at different rates (ranging from 10%–30%), there has been no obvious sales decline.

More importantly, in a performance trough cycle, cash flow is king. By September 2025, Wuliangye had 136.3 billion yuan in cash on its books, Luzhou Laojiao held 31.7 billion yuan in cash. These massive cash reserves are more than enough to support high dividend payouts during performance volatility, providing a strong safety margin for share prices.

The "Expectation Gap" of Spring Festival Peak Season

The 2026 Spring Festival could be an important turning point.

Huachuang Securities notes that this year’s Spring Festival falls later and the holiday is longer, so the siphon effect will be stronger than in previous years. The market has previously been overly pessimistic about sales, but the actual situation is highly likely to correct this pessimistic expectation.

The performance of regional industry leaders confirms this. Gujing Gongjiu has held its market share firm in Anhui, with Gu-16 staying strong against the trend, and Q3 2025 inventories beginning to clear at the margin. Jinhuijiu is growing rapidly in northwestern markets, especially Shaanxi, with the Baoji market mature and driving expansion in Xi’an and other areas. CITIC Securities predicts that with February (the two weeks before the festival) approaching, traditional channel sales may accelerate.

At this point, rather than focusing on past negatives, it’s better to pay attention to ongoing marginal changes. The bottom of the liquor sector may be quietly forming amid all this pessimism.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.