Bank of America: Apple and Intel's collaboration may trigger a €4.6 billion equipment purchase spree, with ASML expected to be the biggest winner.

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The potential chip foundry cooperation between Apple and Intel is drawing widespread attention in the semiconductor equipment industry.

According to the latest analysis by Bank of America, the value of this cooperation agreement could reach as high as $10 billion and will drive Intel to make large-scale purchases of chip manufacturing equipment. Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML and hybrid bonding equipment manufacturer BE Semiconductor were named as the most direct beneficiaries.

Bank of America estimates that if the cooperation covers the iPhone product line, Intel's equipment order from ASML could be as much as €4.6 billion; the order volume for hybrid bonding machines from BE Semiconductor could jump to 182 units, far exceeding previous expectations. This outlook constitutes a substantial positive for the performance expectations of the two Dutch equipment companies.

Background of the Cooperation: Apple and Intel Negotiations Last Over a Year

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement on chip foundry cooperation, and the negotiations have lasted more than a year. Currently, Apple's chips are mainly manufactured by TSMC. If the potential cooperation with Intel materializes, it will mark a significant adjustment in Apple's supply chain.

However, specific technical details of the cooperation are still unclear, including what process technology Intel will adopt and which types of products it will produce for Apple, none of which have been disclosed yet.

Equipment Demand: Whether iPhone Is Included Determines Order Volume

Bank of America analysts pointed out that the scale of Intel's equipment purchases will largely depend on whether the cooperation includes the production of iPhone chips.

In the baseline scenario—if the cooperation does not include iPhone—Intel’s orders to ASML are expected to be about €1.8 billion; but once iPhone is included in the cooperation, this number will surge to €4.6 billion, requiring Intel to purchase 15 EUV lithography machines.

BE Semiconductor is also showing significant differentiated expectations. If the cooperation is limited to non-iPhone products, Intel’s order for hybrid bonding machines is about 15 units; if the iPhone is included, the order volume will jump to 182 units—this figure is much higher than Intel’s original estimate of 80 units purchased between 2024 and 2030.

ASML’s Core Position: EUV Monopoly Advantage Highlighted

ASML occupies a central position in this potential beneficiary landscape, mainly due to its monopoly in the EUV lithography machine market. EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) equipment is indispensable for manufacturing the most advanced process chips, and ASML is the world’s only supplier of EUV lithography machines.

If Intel is to undertake Apple’s advanced chip orders, it will inevitably need to expand EUV capacity, putting ASML in an irreplaceable position in this cooperation chain.

The potential order increase for BE Semiconductor is closely related to Intel’s recent active expansion of its packaging business strategy. Bank of America’s analysis pointed out that if Apple entrusts packaging and bonding services to Intel, it will directly drive Intel’s demand for hybrid bonding equipment.

Intel has been increasing its promotion of packaging services, and as the booming demand for AI infrastructure has caused TSMC’s packaging capacity to tighten, Intel is leveraging this window period to actively attract customers.

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