Behind the pause in mutual attacks between the US and Iran: Iran says progress was made in talks with Oman on managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, US military faces ammunition shortages.

Behind the pause in mutual attacks between the US and Iran: Iran says progress was made in talks with Oman on managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, US military faces ammunition shortages.

```

The ongoing military conflict between the US and Iran, which lasted nearly two weeks, has entered a brief period of ceasefire. After US President Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes due to concerns over depleted air defense ammunition and diplomatic considerations, Iran promptly announced a suspension of its reciprocal attacks.

This change in situation began on Thursday. According to CCTV News, after receiving new operational plans against Iran from the military, Trump did not approve them and directly ordered a suspension of the daily airstrike actions that had continued for 13 days. Iranian Army spokesman Akraminia subsequently confirmed that after the US ceased strikes for two consecutive nights, Iran’s reciprocal actions also stopped, defining this strategy as a “retaliatory deterrence” intended to force the US to comply with related memoranda of understanding.

The brief abatement of hostilities has directly influenced the pricing logic of global commodity markets. Previously, as the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for about one-fifth of global oil and gas transportation—became the core zone of conflict, international crude oil prices once spiked to $100 per barrel this week, hitting a two-month high. Currently, investors are closely watching whether diplomatic engagements can resolve the longstanding crisis of the strait blockade and thereby eliminate major uncertainties in the energy supply chain.

The forces behind the bilateral ceasefire show a dual-track pattern. On one hand, Iran and Oman made preliminary progress in vice foreign minister-level talks on strait shipping management held in Tehran, opening space for renewed diplomacy; on the other hand, internal concerns in the Pentagon over sharply depleted air defense interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East pose a practical constraint on the US expanding its military strikes.

Diplomatic Mediation Makes Progress, Strait Navigation Remains Deadlocked

Arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are a core indicator for observing whether the current tensions can shift towards genuine alleviation. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghai confirmed that on July 24-25, Iran and Oman held multiple rounds of vice foreign minister-level meetings in Tehran, discussing jointly agreed principles and operating mechanisms for safeguarding safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghai described the talks as “productive,” stating that some progress has been made. Although the Omani delegation left Tehran on the 25th, technical and political consultations between both sides will continue.

Media reports citing informed sources indicated the focus of the talks was how to allocate shipping volume between the southern corridor near Oman’s coast (where US forces could provide air cover) and Iranian waters. Regional sources stated Oman and Iran might reach an agreement by the weekend, after which Trump will decide whether to accept the proposal.

US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the media that Trump is “leaving some space for negotiations” and will decide later whether to resume strikes. However, market risks have not been completely resolved. Baghai emphasized that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet changed; Iranian state TV also reported that the strait is still in a “closed state.”

Intensified Consumption of Air Defense Ammunition Raises US Military Stockpile Concerns

At the military decision-making level, the reduction in US air defense ammunition stockpiles has become an important factor for the White House.

According to reports, US Central Command chief Brad Cooper had already prepared several action plans including intense airstrikes for 10-14 days, but the plan was shelved. Reports quoted two informed sources as saying US concerns over escalation leading to more severe Iranian retaliation would further deplete the Pentagon’s air defense interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine has informed the White House of decreasing stockpiles of air defense interceptors such as “Patriot” and “THAAD.” Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimate that since the outbreak of conflict, the US military has used at least 1,500 “Patriot” interceptors, with less than 1,000 remaining. The analysis pointed out that excessive consumption of anti-missile interceptors could weaken America’s deterrent strength in other global regions.

Regarding concerns about ammunition shortages, Trump himself denied them, stating that the US has ammunition reserves far exceeding its needs.

Iran Maintains “Retaliatory Deterrence,” Warns of Potential Ground War Risk

While the US is weighing military options, the Iranian military is showing a tough strategic posture. On the night of the 25th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a list of US military assets damaged, claiming it as results from responding to US attacks. Iranian Army spokesman Akraminia made it clear that the current ceasefire is Iran’s proactive strategic choice rather than passive compromise.

Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Shekarchi pointed out that neither in the Strait of Hormuz nor in weakening Iran has the US achieved its set objectives. He emphasized that the geographical scope of the war has now extended to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and Iran’s operations cover US military targets from Jordan to all countries along the Persian Gulf.

For the next developments, the Iranian military said it is prepared for every possible scenario. Shekarchi warned that as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits the US, Iran could face massive airstrikes or ground military action in the future. He specifically noted that if the US chooses to launch a ground war, its forces “will be more vulnerable.” Until the situation becomes clear, restraint from both the US and Iran remains in a fragile and dynamic balance.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the special investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investments based on this are at your own risk. ```