Behind the unmanned urban delivery boom, a battle for cargo sources has begun.

Author | Zhou Zhiyu

The competition in unmanned urban delivery is unfolding beyond vehicle sales.

JD Logistics has announced a plan to purchase 1 million unmanned vehicles over five years and has introduced Horizon Robotics' computing solutions for its delivery vehicles; Neolix is leveraging Didi Freight to secure on-demand delivery orders from merchants.

On September 10th, NineSenses expanded its leasing franchise, offering services such as time-sharing leasing and pay-per-ride through its self-operated and franchised fleets. Facing increased price competition in whole-vehicle sales and whole-vehicle leasing, NineSenses hopes to bring in small-scale freight owners who only need vehicles for a few hours, increasing its transportation revenue beyond vehicle sales and autonomous driving subscriptions.

Zhou Qing, co-founder and CCO of Jiushi Intelligence, revealed to Wall Street Insights that the company has launched its own fleet in 45 cities, with about one-third of them having achieved a positive business model. These operational successes have given Jiushi the confidence to expand, but the cargo supply supporting the fleet expansion is precisely the business that other players are vying for.

In 2026, the competition for unmanned urban delivery services is extending from fixed short-haul routes between express delivery outlets to the temporary transportation needs of merchants. Technology has reduced the burden of deploying new routes, leading automakers and intelligent driving companies to accelerate their entry into the market, and logistics platforms are also beginning to participate in vehicle development. With increasing supply, existing unmanned vehicle manufacturers are starting to compete for transportation orders downstream.

Manufacturers are sourcing goods.

“Previously, we mainly sold and leased entire properties. Later, we found that more and more players were entering the industry, and price competition was inevitable,” Zhou Qing told Wall Street Insights.

Understanding customer vehicle usage patterns led JiuShi to discover another way to do business. JiuShi CEO Kong Qi explained that some courier customers only use their vehicles for five or six hours a day, leaving them parked in their yards for the rest of the time. These customers began renting out their idle time slots, thus forming a fleet to handle other transportation needs.

Some shippers only need a vehicle for a few hours or a single delivery occasionally, and are unwilling to buy a vehicle or rent one long-term. Pay-as-you-go pricing allows fleets to handle these sporadic needs and serve more small shippers.

In May and June of this year, Jiushi launched a leasing pilot program in 45 cities. Zhou Qing explained that the company hopes to integrate scattered, time-sharing transportation needs with planned logistics tasks through its fleet of vehicles to provide transportation capacity services.

Therefore, Jiushi needs to continue working with partners to find orders, manage scheduling, and provide on-site services after the vehicles are delivered. Shippers who pay per order can choose not to place an order if they don't have cargo, but the party holding the vehicle has already paid. The problem of shippers not using a full vehicle ends up in the hands of the fleet.

“Renting a car will definitely put financial pressure on you,” Zhou Qing admitted. He hopes to use the vehicles more efficiently to offset the investment in the asset.

Yu Enyuan, founder and CEO of Neolix, sees nighttime logistics as a new market. In August of this year, he stated at the World Robot Conference that nighttime orders have begun to exceed daytime orders in the company's Qingdao unmanned vehicle transportation network.

The orders needed by the fleet must be able to fill off-peak hours and return routes. Kong Qi explained that in a postal project in Hubei, unmanned vehicles deliver packages to rural areas and then bring back local agricultural products. For fleets with established routes, this type of return cargo means an opportunity to take on additional transportation business without adding more vehicles.

The company first validates its own fleet before recruiting more franchisees. Zhou Qing believes that these case studies will make partners more willing to participate. He predicts that in the future, the fleet may consist of several hundred franchised fleets and dozens of core self-operated fleets.

By franchising, JiuShi can leverage the resources of more local partners to invest in vehicles and develop customers. However, operational permissions are not fully extended. Zhou Qing explained that JiuShi currently only grants limited permissions to selected partners for tasks involving safety monitoring and grid management. Franchisees can share the investment and customer acquisition costs, but JiuShi still needs to participate in the post-delivery operation of the vehicles, meaning that expansion inevitably involves service costs in various regions.

Jiushi is also curbing competition among franchisees in the same city. On September 10th, the company set a city protection period for some franchisees who signed contracts on-site, during which no new Jiushi car rental franchisees will be introduced. Kong Qi explained on-site that it's important to ensure partners can make money; otherwise, if multiple people enter the same market and undercut each other's prices, the business will be unsustainable.

Without new cargo sources, continuing to deploy vehicles within the same city simply means distributing limited orders to more vehicles. Jiushi's expansion of its franchise network requires investment from local partners, and even more importantly, it needs the transportation tasks these vehicles can subsequently handle.

The order entry point is changing.

Neolix is also vying for the fragmented transportation needs of shippers, choosing to reach customers through freight platforms. Its on-demand ride-hailing model in partnership with Didi Freight began in mid-2025. In March of this year, the company disclosed that its on-demand delivery service had completed over 1.5 million orders and plans to expand to 50 cities within the year. Shippers can initiate point-to-point transportation requests via mobile phone and purchase services on a per-trip basis.

Fleets and platforms connect vehicles, dispatching, and customer demand, allowing shippers to purchase delivery services for a single trip or a few hours. Jiushi expands its customer base through self-operated and franchised services, while Neolix connects demand through its platform, both striving to secure specific transportation tasks.

This year's competition is more challenging for early adopters because new competitors have only been in the urban logistics market for a short time, yet their technological and mass production experience may not be lacking. Companies developing intelligent driving systems for passenger vehicles can reuse algorithms, and OEMs can provide manufacturing capabilities, giving them the opportunity to reduce their investment in developing from scratch and figuring out the supply chain.

A senior technology executive at a smart driving company told Wall Street Insights that they have been waiting for autonomous driving technology to mature further, for pre-installed mass production methods to become more reliable, and for the ability to safely operate a fleet of thousands of vehicles. Only after these three things mature can the relevant technologies and operational experience be fully reused across different vehicle models. Premature investment will lead to wasted resources and duplication of effort. NineSenses is also providing OEMs with pathways to the autonomous driving market. Through its Zelos Inside business, NineSenses provides autonomous driving capabilities to OEMs. Dongfeng and Yutong have already partnered with it, and GAC Lingcheng signed a strategic cooperation agreement with it on September 10th.

Xue Yapeng, General Manager of Jiushi Ecosystem and Innovation Business Unit, described this as a situation where some companies that were originally considered competitors are gradually forming a "state of both competition and cooperation." He also mentioned that in addition to manufacturing capabilities, OEMs also have a wider range of mature traditional vehicle customers who are facing the need for unmanned transformation.

The entry of more brands into the autonomous vehicle market may take away some of Jiushi's vehicle orders, or it may increase Jiushi's technology orders. By leveraging collaborations to complete their autonomous driving capabilities, OEMs can also market autonomous vehicles to existing customers, reducing the investment required to develop the market from scratch. The technology accumulated by early adopters also helps newcomers attract customers.

Whether new transportation demands can be met depends on how vehicles are deployed. "Map-free" technology is reducing the preparation burden for new routes. When Momenta launched RoboVan in Xiangcheng, Suzhou in July, it used high-precision map-free technology accumulated from its passenger car mass production business. Kong Qi also introduced on September 10 that the vehicles delivered by Jiushi since August have adopted a solution that does not rely on pre-collected high-precision maps.

On fixed express delivery routes, the investment in image acquisition and adaptation can be spread over long-term tasks. However, when merchants call for vehicles on short notice, the origin and destination of each transport may be different. If a new route requires a long preparation period, it will be difficult to take on the business, no matter how cheap the vehicle is. Reducing reliance on pre-acquired images is the only way to organize these small orders into a sustainable business.

Purchasing transportation services on a per-trip basis reduces the reason for shippers to be tied to a single vehicle brand. Where multiple companies have available capacity, the price and delivery time can be compared again to determine who to entrust the next shipment to.

Industry pioneers have the opportunity to reach more customers, but they also need to continuously strive for orders from these customers. Selling transportation capacity is no exception, and price competition is inevitable.

The leverage brought by the supply of goods

As autonomous vehicle manufacturers move downstream, they will encounter companies that already have sources of goods and the ability to organize suppliers.

On September 9th, JD Logistics announced its plan to procure 1 million unmanned vehicles over the next five years, and Horizon Robotics announced on the same day that it had been selected as a supplier for JD Logistics' unmanned vehicle project. JD not only announced its procurement needs but also actively participated in product development and the selection of computing solutions.

These buyers purchase autonomous vehicles to integrate them into their existing logistics networks. Manufacturers need to adapt to the customer's scheduling and operational processes, and the customer also controls the transportation tasks after delivery. The more qualified vehicles and technical solutions available, the better JD.com can compare prices and retain the cost reduction benefits of autonomous driving within its own logistics network.

Freight platforms can organize more dispersed cargo owners. In the pilot program announced in Longgang, Shenzhen in August, Neolix provided the technology, Didi Railway held the vehicle assets, Lalamove provided order processing and matching, and Eastern Bus was responsible for operation and maintenance. The first batch of 50 vehicles was planned to be deployed, initially operating at night in four streets of Longgang.

A Lalamove representative stated that they will provide a logistics order portal and supply-demand matching service during the pilot program.

Vehicle assets, technology, and on-site maintenance are provided by the partner. Neolix gains asset and cargo support through this arrangement, which reduces the burden of vehicle investment and customer development, while transportation revenue is also required to cover the costs of all parties.

Technology companies use platforms to reach shippers, but the order-taking process still originates on the platform. For companies looking to increase their revenue from technology services, this division of labor can reduce the investment required to directly develop shippers and organize fleets.

When discussing its freight business plans, the aforementioned executive of the intelligent driving company stated that the company currently needs to participate more in some operational aspects, but as the technology matures, it hopes to gradually focus on autonomous driving solutions, with partners owning the vehicles and operating the fleet.

Jiushi is developing its own and franchised fleets, aiming to integrate shippers and local fleets into its service system. The company has launched a rental platform for shippers and an operations management system for franchisees, covering order processing, dispatching, pricing, and settlement, and promises to provide these systems to partners permanently free of charge. Headquarters will also provide online promotion and customer lead generation. Even after vehicle delivery, Jiushi can still participate in order organization and fleet operation.

This requires Jiushi to invest funds and local operational resources, and it also makes its relationship with logistics companies and freight platforms more delicate: it needs these customers and partners to bring in orders, but it also hopes to directly manage a group of cargo owners belonging to its own service system.

With an increased availability of vehicles and technological solutions, those who secure stable cargo sources have greater leverage to select suppliers and negotiate prices. Early adopters like Jiushi are accumulating this leverage by securing transportation business – ensuring the next round of fleet expansion follows their orders.

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