Besant informed Trump: If the war lasts 8-12 weeks, the US faces the risk of rising oil prices, with Asia and Europe being the most affected.

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Intense risk assessments and policy discussions have already begun within the Trump administration regarding the economic costs of the Iran war. Treasury Secretary Besant directly warned the president: if the conflict drags on for 8 to 12 weeks, the U.S. will face a fragile exposure to rising gasoline prices, and Asia and Europe will be hit hardest by the energy price shock.

On April 12, according to The Wall Street Journal, sources revealed that Besant had reported directly to Trump on the correlation between the duration of the war, market reactions, and economic trends.

The report indicated that Besant and the president discussed the potential countermeasures the Treasury could take if the conflict extended to 8 to 12 weeks, as well as the U.S.'s potential vulnerability to rising gasoline prices. Besant made it clear to the president that he believed Asia and Europe would be the regions most vulnerable to energy price increases in this war.

From a market perspective, economic pressure is already beginning to show: in March, U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year, higher than February’s 2.4%; oil prices once exceeded $100 a barrel; gasoline prices rose above $4 per gallon.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in a recent letter to shareholders that if the war continues, it will trigger "major and sustained shocks" to oil and commodity prices, and could make inflation stickier and eventually push interest rates higher.

Besant’s Core Warning: 8-12 Weeks as the Critical Time Window

According to reports, Besant and Trump held focused discussions on the impact of the war’s duration on the U.S. economic trajectory. They particularly assessed the outlook if the conflict persists for 8 to 12 weeks, and what policy tools the Treasury could use during this period.

In the meeting, Besant specifically pointed out that Asia and Europe are more exposed to rising energy prices than the U.S. itself. This means that even if domestic gasoline prices come under pressure, the shock to global energy markets will be felt more intensely by Asian and European economies, which are more dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil.

The report noted that, at the same time, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also provided the president with advice on the potential impact of the war on the U.S. economy, according to a senior government official. White House spokesman Kush Desai stated that the administration has been working with business representatives to mitigate the shock from the war.

Last month, the Treasury already issued a short-term authorization allowing the sale of Iranian oil that was already in transit at sea, which was seen as a temporary measure to relieve supply pressure.

According to sources, the CEOs of the three largest U.S. oil companies recently privately warned Trump administration officials, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. These executives stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period, it will seriously squeeze global fuel supply chains and could worsen the energy crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passageway for about 20% of the world's daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at an energy conference in Houston last month that the financial markets have not yet fully realized the severity of physical oil flow disruptions.

At the same conference, Wright and Burgum told oil executives that the strait’s transit issues would be resolved in weeks, not months. However, according to sources, some executives privately expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s overly optimistic statements, noting that the uncertainty of the conflict made it impossible for companies to plan investments.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in a recent letter to shareholders that if the war continues, there will be "prolonged, major shocks to oil and other commodity prices, as well as a restructuring of global supply chains, which could make inflation stickier and ultimately push interest rates higher."

However, not all voices are pessimistic about the economic risks. Matt Coday, founder and chairman of the Oil & Gas Workers Association, said he does not believe the U.S. economy will take a major hit, describing the rise in gasoline prices as a "temporary fluctuation."

Agricultural Sector Sounds the Alarm: Fertilizer Supply in Crisis

The economic impact of the war has extended to the U.S. agricultural sector. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently said in a meeting with agricultural lobbying groups that she would bring the issue of rising fertilizer prices directly to the president. Caleb Ragland, chairman of the American Soybean Association, confirmed this in an interview.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, about half the world’s supply of urea (a nitrogen-based fertilizer) and nearly a third of ammonia supplies typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait directly threatens the supply of raw materials for American agriculture.

"For our farmers, this is an emergency and we need that supply route reopened," Ragland said. He added that the message from the agricultural sector to Rollins and other government officials was the same as that from other economic sectors: The war should not be prolonged.

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